… is before the election

 

After the election is before the election, as the saying has it. First, a disclaimer: my thoughts on the election results are necessarily very general because the counts are still going on. Still, there’s the Hartlepool by-election with the stunning result of the Labour loss and while most constituencies in Wales and Scotland have posted the results of the ‘super Thursday’ elections counts in London are still ongoing. I’m sure you’ll have found the results in your constituency by now and I hope some of the independent candidates did well.

However, let me repeat the saying: after the election is before the election. So what can we learn from the results so far? Is Labour really dying, as all the erudite comment piece writers in the metropolitan MSM are now saying? Or is this yet another sign for the distance between the Westminster Village dwellers and the rest of the country? Because in Wales – still part of the Union, as far as I know – Labour is not at all dead. The pitiful performance of Dripford as ‘First Minister’ has actually given Welsh Labour one of their best results. Meanwhile Londoners seem to be ok with having Khan as Mayor yet again – but that’s not yet official. He is a member of the Labour Party, isn’t he … Add that in Scotland, the Sturgeon has also been endorsed by a majority of Scots and the election results start looking a bit more sinister. 

It seems that an incumbent, no matter their previous performance, will get re-elected. Might this be a sign for the increasing willingness of ordinary people to let ‘them’ do as they like and re-elect them anyway, according to the saying about the devil one knows being better?

There are some other general results which deserve more analysis: the apparent demise of the LibDems for example. Didn’t they dominate local councils, weren’t they known for running excellent local campaigns, springboards for getting members elected to the HoC? Perhaps their experience is now similar to that of the other smaller parties, namely that without an incumbent chances for election are perishingly small? 

Isn’t that what we see when we look at the results so far for Independent candidates as well? According to the very general chart on the BBC website (link), there were some 140 Independents elected in England. If some of them were elected in your constituency, please let us all know!

After the election is before the election – so the movement for independent candidates really must learn what worked and what didn’t if we want to get out of the clutches of the Tory Party on the one hand and the dying grip of Labour on the other. It’s not good enough to celebrate the nearly 10% of votes won by the independent Sam Lee in Hartlepool when we add the results achieved by David Kurten’s Party and the Reform Party  – both not even getting 2% of the votes. This simply makes the result look even more grim.

Not even the result so far for the Greens – nil in Scotland, nil in Wales and about 50% fewer votes even than those achieved by independent candidates in England – is a cause for celebration. All of this ought to scare us instead because it indicates that the Tory Party has hoovered up the policies which were espoused by those parties.

It’s still possible to try an analysis though – and, I’m afraid, I can see a disturbing picture arising. It’s not the ‘demise of Labour’ which all the erudite MSM Opinion piece writers are fixating on which is disturbing – it’s the demise of the established parties like the Libdems and the Greens, never mind what one thinks of them. The failure of the Reform Party also fits into the grim image I discern. This is underlined by the interpretation Tories give to the Hartlepool result:

“Boris Johnson is preparing for a decade-long premiership after a series of historic victories in Labour’s former heartlands.The prime minister said yesterday that he would embark on a “massive project” of levelling up the country as he sought to cement the Conservatives’ electoral success. […] Cabinet ministers said they believed that there had been a permanent change in the nation’s political identity and suggested that Johnson could outlast Margaret Thatcher, who was in Downing Street for 11 years.They said that the Conservative Party must press home its electoral advantage by winning the “culture wars” and continuing to challenge “woke” views in the years to come.” (link, paywalled)

Clearly, they’re very cocksure and are already preparing for the next election – but is it really a sign that the ‘nation’s political identity’ has changed or is it a sign that the Tory Party has gobbled up so many political issues that no other political parties with a distinct identity have got a chance? Is Sir John Redwood correct when he only sees the economy as driving force for election results in his Diary today (link)? Has it now come to this that it’s no longer LibLabConGreenGrey (grey for ‘independents’, for ‘others’) but a blue melange with flecks of green and red? 

The frightening image I see emerging is that, thanks to incumbency, we’ll have semi-feudal fiefdoms such as in Wales where Labour had been in power since devolution and in Scotland where the Sturgeon can do as she likes. It seems there’s no opposition possible in those neo-feudal entities while in England only little red enclaves here and there counterbalance the apparent  Tory supremacy. 

I believe this outcome simply demonstrates that people all over the country don’t give a d*mn any longer, that they only wish to be left alone, letting incumbents and ‘professional politicians’ ride roughshod over our civil liberties. I’m afraid that BJ’s party will go on enforcing policies on us which we moan about but aren’t doing anything against even when given the opportunity through elections. That applies to the devolved parts of the Union as well, just with a different rosette colour. I’m afraid this will still be the case come the next GE – especially as long as the various ‘new Parties’ and their leaders seem to be more keen to promote themselves rather than leave their egos at the door and get together to try and establish a proper opposition. 

After the election is before the election – we surely deserve better than having wannabe ‘party leaders’ pop up a few weeks before polling day. If independents want to get a foot into the door they must start working now and make their voices heard. The issues are there, from covid and our civil liberties to ‘woke’ and green blobbery. Start working now – get writing. A month before elections, be they local, be they by-elections, or be they – God forbid! – a snap GE is too late.

And if we must look at Labour’s former glory and it’s present demise, then let’s remember that they were successful when their candidates championed us, the people, and our real, practical concerns rather than using spin, stuffing minor political ‘causes’ like woke down our collective throats. There’s nothing more dangerous than a people having become apathetic to politics because they feel there’s nothing they can do about it. Can independents turn this around? Only if they start working now … together!

 

KBO!