The waves of excitement after ‘that’ debate in the HoC are subsiding and the actual obstacles in the Brexit negotiations are now becoming visible again. And what a surprise: it’s the same old same old, as Ms May has to present her ‘New Deal’ to Parliament on Monday, 13th February with the HoC debating it – with more amendments, of course – on Tuesday 14th February. So be prepared to go through the whole exercise again: of claims and counter-claims, of MPs and “experts” posturing, of more ‘Project Fear’, more proposals and more inner-party shenanigans. What joy!
We saw yesterday (see here) that the EU went immediately into the usual ‘njet’ mode, but our own side is as static as the EU. Ms May and her Remain supporters meanwhile have a cunning plan to get her horrible WA deal through Parliament – by trying to buy votes of Labour MPs (here):
“Theresa May will persuade Labour MPs to back her Brexit deal by offering money for their constituencies, it has been claimed. The PM’s plan would reportedly offer cash injections for deprived areas which backed Brexit in the 2016 referendum.”
It might even work because Mr Corbyn’s Brexit attitude is to let May-hem reign, even in his own Party, so as to be able to blame everything on the Tories and thus win the next GE he so craves. Never forget: this is not about Brexit and working to get the best for the country – it’s about party politics, with Ego before Party, Country coming a very far third …
Meanwhile in the Tory Party … and it’s the same old same old here as well. Ministers threatening to resign again? Yes indeed: because the EU has already rejected to negotiate – see here. Frankly, I can’t make head nor tails of this reasoning, unless it’s about grasping the limelight – do help me out if you can!
Far more important is the fact that Ms May, after ‘winning’ on Tuesday, is shredding the promise she made to Tory Brexit MPs, of changing the negotiating team. Apparently she assured them that two ‘seasoned’ negotiators would be added to the team – and now it’s all a ‘misunderstanding’:
“Leading Brexiteers claimed they had received assurances from Downing Street that two seasoned trade negotiators would be brought in to bolster the UK’s team in Brussels. But they reacted angrily after No10 said the line-up of officials would not change. Mrs May has said attempts to win concessions from the EU would be led by herself and three leading ministers. Eurosceptic MPs want the UK’s Permanent Representative to the UN and WTO in Geneva, Julian Braithwaite, and Crawford Falconer, a seasoned trade negotiator based in the International Trade department, to be brought in.
One MP said Mrs May’s chief of staff, Gavin Barwell, told members of the European Research Group of Brexiteers ahead of Tuesday’s crunch vote, that Mr Falconer would be installed. Others suggested Mrs May herself had hinted at such a move at a meeting with backbenchers. Last night one Downing Street source blamed a ‘misunderstanding’. Speaking to reporters after Prime Minister’s Questions, Mrs May’s spokesman said: ‘The Civil Service team, which is led by Olly Robbins, remains the same.’ (source).
So let that sink in: the same lot who gave us the WA and the Backstop are now going to get rid of it and get better terms from the EU … If it weren’t so serious one would have to laugh about the obvious ineptitude prevailing at the top of our government – not just because of keeping that ‘team’ but because of the bad faith with which they treat their own backbenchers. It’s skulduggery on a grand scale to protect Ego which, repeat after me, comes before Party and Country.
According to The Times (paywalled) Mr Robbins is said to be given ‘a less prominent role’ – oh really? Let’s watch out for the proverbial flying porcines … One who was there, Steve Baker MP, described how May’s ‘Team Robbins’ sidelined the DexEU ministry at yesterday’s European scrutiny committee meeting – watch it here. And we should believe that now everything will be different? Leopards and changing spots come to mind …
Meanwhile some Brexiteers are putting their hopes on a last-minute cave-in by the EU, based on reports that the Polish PM said the EU should be more flexible, see e.g. here or here. Anyone who has watched the EU in action will know that this is no more than a pious wish – the Poles are not in the EU’s good books. However, this report (paywalled) from the Times EU correspondent hints that a last-minute cave-in might indeed be on the cards:
“Angela Merkel will “go to the edge of the precipice” with Theresa May as the European Union prepares to reject any change to the withdrawal agreement in time for a crucial vote in two weeks. Diplomatic sources said the German chancellor believed that people needed “to look into the abyss before a deal is done at five to midnight — that is how she works”. The next summit at which European leaders could agree any changes to the agreement or an extension to the negotiating period to avoid no deal is on March 21, only eight days before Britain is due to leave the EU.”
We all know by now that Ms Merkel determines how the EU cookie crumbles. So the outlook for the next two weeks at least is: ‘no change’ – not from the EU, not from Ms May, not from our posturing Remainers. And the clock keeps ticking …
We Brexiteers will have to work harder, from that Rees-Mogg group down to us peasants. So keep writing to your MPs – we know that they love to say “my constituents” when they pose in the HoC.
Keep on rallying, in front of Parliament and in your constituencies. And keep talking to your friend and neighbours – that’s how we won the Referendum!
Date to put in your diary: Barnet and Hendon Branch are having a stall in Golders Green this Sunday, 3rd Feb outside M & S, Finchley Road, N11b6XL. Starting approx 11am to 3pm, anyone who lives in that locality and can make it to help out if only for an hour would be most welcome.
This is the first time we will have done it in this area and it will be interesting to see what sort of response we get, their MP is a remainer and in the Barnet borough 62% voted to remain, so it could be tough, but who knows attitudes may have changed and we need to get out there to keep them informed.
It would be possible to go on at length about this, but I will only state this. ….. I never liked the EU, but now I hate the very mention of it. ….. My last vote went to the Conservatives, not because I’m Tory, but because we have an excellent Constituency Rep, MP. ..… I have told him that his Party has prevented my vote for him in this marginal seat. Mrs May is responsible for this by her two faced double dealing ! IT’S U.K.I.P. only from now on !
Why do my messages never get posted?
What messages would those be, Amoree, and where did you send them to?
On this site we can only post comment posts which are written under articles.
Since the switch to Independence Daily, one thing I have noticed with regards to comments is that the same thing happens as does on KipperCentral.
Previously after submitting a comment or reply, it would be visible to me, but would show as ‘Awaiting moderation’. This does not happen now, and the comment doesn’t appear until it is actually approved.
As I said, the same thing happens on KipperCentral’s website, and while I’m used to it now, some people do seem to think that their comments are being ‘deleted’ or not posted.
To anyone else reading this, do not worry, your comments and replies do eventually appear once they are approved by the moderators helping to run this site, a little patience is all that is required. 🙂
Odd, I always see the moderation message.
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
Odd, I always see the moderation message.
Far from being clear about wanting to discuss the possible “look of future relations”, the EU for its part has added to massive ambiguity by wanting to reach defined, agreed and irreversible outcomes before it had started to review the process or negotiate the quid pro quo – it wanted to have its cake (ie money and obedience) while still eating it (ie refusing to admit that the UK is leaving and is after a different arrangement and not the one that has tied us to the EU for so long and failed).
The UK on the other hand, in Mrs May’s infinite wisdom, far from being imaginative and constructive, declared in 2017 that she was going to be ‘a bloody difficult woman’ during the negotiations. In August 2017 the headlines read that a ‘Brexit row’ had broken out and that ‘Britain had lashed out at Michel Barnier for his ‘ill-judged and unhelpful attack on the UK’.
It was clear from the start that ‘the relationship building’ side of things needed some work and didn’t get any, yet both sides keep saying they want a “good relationship”. Verhofstadt, Merkel and Macron have been really brilliant at helping there.
In a negotiation the only way to have good relationship in such a tense and momentous decision as this, is to agree from the start that the outcome is going to look very different from the actual position. By calling it nothing but “lose-lose” no matter what the outcome Barnier showed his cards and now “lose-lose” is probably the best compromise that either side can obtain.
When the “negotiations” (quite a misnomer all will agree) began all those years ago after the Referendum, you could almost see this coming.
This has been a hopeless approach to negotiating, and as an experienced intercultural communications coach who has trained negotiations to top levels (including the EU bureaucracy) the hopeless lack of awareness of negotiating style and expectations has shone through like a flamethrower through mud-smeared plastic.
M Barnier emerged from the first meeting with the statement (reported in the BBC), that he was ‘adamant that the “sequencing” of the talks is key – the UK won’t get to negotiate a trade deal until separation terms are agreed that preserve the integrity of the EU single market, and the UK settles its outstanding bills. He went on to say that “we need UK papers that are clear in order to have constructive negotiations and the sooner we remove the ambiguity, the sooner we will be in a position to discuss the future relationship and the transitional period”.’
Mrs May on the other hand, through David Davis (who I generally like) in an article in the Independent I think, wanted to see “flexibility and imagination on both sides”. Mr Davis described the inscrutable parts of the UK position as “constructive ambiguity”.
Right from the start both sides appear to have willingly set out to frustrate and confuse the other.
How can the debate in the Commons be Monday 13th when Feb 14th is a Thursday?
Ms May presents her new ‘plan’ on Monday 13th February and the HoC will debate it on Tuesday 14th February.
Viv – please check your calendar again. Fred’s right!
I’ll check – these are the dates I’ve taken from Ms May’s own proclamation in the HoC.
Shows how confused and useless she is.
As we suffer more nonsense from this pathetic PM and government it reminds me daily of brick walls and mirrors. These parliamentarians don’t seem to understand they are not negotiating but simply discussing situations amongst themselves that have no bearing on the outcome.
Just imagine if we had given the job of building a house over two years ago they would still be discussing the footings.
I suppose we must be glad that at this late stage we have Teresa May as our PM for she is so clueless that we are bound to get the leaving arrangements the majority prefer on WTO terms.
It is so annoying that everyone still talks about a no deal when such a prospect is not being considered. We are however considering a managed withdrawal with all that that entails and for which all serious businesses and exporters have been planning for months.
In recent days the “legality” word has been creeping into the daily dose of propaganda where no such considerations apply. The Withdrawal Agreement is only a statement of intent to agree to continue along certain lines until full agreement is reached. That is when the treaty will be made and signed and not before.
Of course when we do leave without a formal agreement, here’s hoping, then we will find that even if the EU doesn’t want to budge, the suppliers and manufacturers within the EU will be squealing for a rapid arrangement to scrap the new tariffs.
I’ve reminded my MP, who claims to be a lawyer, on what he and parliament as a whole voted for in 2017 and 2018 with very large majorities just in case he’s forgotten.
Both EU Withdrawal Bills now on the statute books allowed for Article 50 to be invoked with a two year time period, with no mention of a specific deal being agreed, and subsequently the later Act sets the time and date for leaving. Unless the government comes forward with reforming / amending legislation that situation remains intact.
Even the recent attempts to prevent leaving with a no deal were only advisory because it came from individuals and not the executive / government.
We are all clear for take-off on the 29th March so fasten your seats belts and enjoy the ride of a generation.
Excellent workmanlike valuable and rare reporting. Thank you. . Keep going. .
What concerns me, is that with all the bull about the backstop, there appears a lack if interest about all the rest. Which contains dozens of traps and blatant offers. Not even as far as I can see, not even negotiated or discussed in parliament. And all mass betrayals. Which all look likely to sneak through.As well as a few more betrayals she could yet offer
The second thing that concerns me is UKIP itself, and my take on its leadership
My concerns are for my children and grandchildren in Britain. Not even close for a bunch of failing and useless political hopefulls
I am supremely uninterested in ukip political party. Which by the way I guess is now busted.at everything except money.
Alernatively I would have total understanding for a protest party which might DO something and actually achieve. It sounds to me as though that’s may be Nigels direction; or even the Independence direction ..I don’t know these people, I don’t particularly want to. Only their possible results.
You’re quite right TG. Is May being very sneaky, concentrating on the Irish backstop and ignoring all the other terrible things in the WA, hoping that if she gets the backstop sorted nobody will notice all the other betrayals? Or is she being supremely clever, knowing that the EU will not remove the backstop so concentrating on that in the knowledge that the WA is going to be rejected and we’re heading for WTO? She’s nobody’s fool and she’s exceptionally stubborn so what’s her plan?
Well done Batten.
I don’t think it’s her we have to worry about. It’s the Civil Service ( 450,000 of them ). Mostly remoaners.and paid by taxes. And quite a lot of subtle ones as well.
An excellent article, thank you Viv. I doubt that the Queen can say or do any more than she already has, it would severely damage the monarchy.
I agree with TG that UKIP is a busted flush and electoral suicide. I now have no political home, I left a year ago. Maybe Nigel will come up with something but a temporary party doesn’t have a lot of attraction. We require something to take on the usual suspects long term and if that can’t be achieved after the way Parliament is now acting, then we may as well live in an elected dictatorship.
“it would severely damage the monarchy.” Maybe, but she would receive support from many and would demonstrate that she is more than a useless figurehead / tourist atttraction. As it is, given her various acts which might be construed as treason, I have absolutley zero respect for her and most of her fmily.
Ukip is still the only Brexit Party. The only Party where ALL Members voted to LEAVE the political union known as the EU. All Members still have Brexit as their number one priority. You think a Orotest Party is the way forward, how mistaken are you?! Ukip are seen by many (who are not well informed) as a Protest Party. Don’t forget, we are ‘Racist, facist, bald, tattooed, theiving thugs who are full of hate.’ Should you be after a Protest Party to enable the country to achieve Brexit then maybe you know of a person who would do this ‘job’ well, maybe even you or a friend could start up such a Protest Group.
I wish you would stop saying UKIP is a busted flush because it simply is not true, I and some other members of my branch were present in London on Tuesday, and there were many others from UKIP waving flags and placards etc, our presence was very prominent I thought. I did see Nigel Farage there briefly when he spoke to some members of the public outside the gates of parliament and of course he was as voluble and ebullient as usual, but to be honest he looked a bit scruffy to me and cut quite a lonely figure with hardly any officials around him. Compare this to Gerard and his party at the other end at college green, he and Mike Hookem looked very smart, Gerard dressed in a smart raincoat and always carrying a briefcase. They were both always surrounded by an entourage of UKIP supporters and were very approachable doing some UKIP Live filming in the pouring rain, Nigel was nowhere to be seen.
I just get a bit tired of people harping on about how wonderful Nigel is and how useless UKIP is without him, he chose to leave and now wants to set up a rival party which will only split a very important vote further, it simply does not make any sense plus it is far too late at this point in leaving the EU. In conclusion, I would just like to add that I was informed that UKIP’s membership continues to increase with one branch secretary telling me he had recently added another thirty new members to his list, and this is in London, a very hard nut to crack.
Of course you can join which ever Brexit movement you want to but let’s please not get into the habit of running down the party that instigated Brexit in the first place, as we all want the same outcome I would hope.
Excellent comment Deborah. One might be forgiven for thinking that some of those referring to UKIP as being a ‘busted flush’ or ‘finished’, and I include Nigel Farage with them, may be guilty of ‘wishful thinking’ and ‘malevolent rumouring’.
Thank you Howard, I just wish they would stop it, they are diminishing our joint cause.
I’m broadly supportive of UKIP but consider that GB made a huge tactical error at this time allying himself with TR (or SYL if one prefers) which has seen UKIP blacklisted by the MSM. Surely an important rule of war is don’t give ammunition to the enemy?
I absolutely support people like TR and AMW who speak out about the realities of the covert invasion but it should have been left to them to take the flak from the unknowing/unseeing masses for their (entirely reasonable) views.
Great comment Jack. That’s it in a nutshell.
Gerard has just Tweeted a copy of the letter he has just sent to HM The Queen petitioning her to prorogue Parliament.
See it here on the UKIP site too.
https://www.ukip.org/national-ukip-news-item.php?id=167
We must each do one. We have the wording of the first paragraph setting out our right to do so. If she gets hundreds of letters – even thousands – she surely has to take action.
….and a sign of the exceptional times we are in it is too. I assume Viv that you will be giving Gerard’s open letter its own slot ?
I’m getting tired of all this alphabet soup stuff on here.
As someone said recently, maybe it is some sort of imagined superiority (hip, with it, groovy baby).
I looked up ”njet’ mode’ on the www. Got this:-
Njet: Free Amateur Porn Video
Why don’t you UWWAU? (Use Words We All Understand).
Or maybe it was a bouget?
Good morning, Viv. Off topic, I’m afraid, but the MSM are ignoring this, and it needs to be broadcast far and wide. Steve Baker’s evidence to the European Scrutiny Committee, yesterday afternoon. It’s 1¼ hrs long, but the first fifteen minutes should suffice.
https://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/81a76aba-1e5f-4a02-92c7-248f2a072f42?in=14:30:48
Mind your blood presssure…
Excellent and worth watching to the end. We need our treason and sedition law reinstating to its proper place; I’m sure evidence could be found to pu May and others in the dock at the Old Bailey.