Will Brexit be wrecked?
Unless you were in a cave all day yesterday – no internet, no smartphones, no TV – you know by now that Johnson announced yesterday morning that “We Have A Deal”. Pandemonium broke out across the twitter sphere and in the British TV studios.
Our TV reporters needed their soundbites now! This minute! Immediately! Thus we had the entertaining spectacle of Jeremy Corbyn rejecting the Deal out of hand even though he had no idea what was in it. The actual text wasn’t that hard to find – the EU had put it on their site nearly immediately, but giving an opinion based on nothing at all, well, that’s modern politics!
The same applied to the HoC peacocks, but not to the Leader of the House. He must be a speed-reader par excellence: someone in his office had obviously printed the whole thing out hot from the EU presses, so he waved the bundle of paper around, saying he had perused it and it was a wonderful thing. The opposition screamed: why hadn’t they been given the text as well and how could he have read it already anyway! That allowed him to lecture the offended offenders on the meaning of ‘peruse’, then slapping them down saying that the text was on the internet … oh …
If you want to read the text, here is the link to the document on the EU site, and here it is downloaded already for ‘easy read’. A full report with all the trimmings of what, how and wherefore is here.
Two things need to happen before this Deal can come into effect on Halloween: the 27 EU leaders have to agree to it in their summit meeting later today, and our MPs, Remainers, Leavers, the lot, will have to do so tomorrow. Oliver Letwin added an amendment to that Government Motion, meaning that Johnson’s ‘My Deal or No Deal’ can have all sorts of amendments added to it:
“He [Johnson] made it clear that Saturday’s Commons vote on the deal will represent the final opportunity for Britain to leave the EU with a deal, otherwise a no deal Brexit will go ahead on Oct 31.” (paywalled link)
It’s therefore not surprising to hear that a massive amount of arm-twisting is now going on in the Tory Party and, I suspect, the Remain Harlots are now doing the same: will they demand a 2nd Referendum? Will they reject the deal and force Johnson to ask for an extension? Will the Spartans vote for the deal?
With a few exceptions the Spartans were tight-lipped – Iain Duncan Smith said they’d wait until Saturday, taking into account that the DUP’s rejection was a crucial factor. The DUP has made no bones about the fact that they will not vote for the deal. We will publish their statement in its entirety on INDEPENDENCE Daily. Unlike all the other players, they have of course been fully cognisant of the text since they were deeply involved in the negotiations.
Sir John Redwood, unmissable as always, has his usual, terse Diary entry, writing this morning:
“The Withdrawal Agreement is unchanged, so I have no need to update my comments on it which set out the problems with it, especially concerning the powers of the ECJ and the money.”
He then points out:
“It [the Political Declaration] suggests the future agreement is based on an EU Association Agreement, designed to get countries to converge with the EU prior to joining. This is not a good model. The ECJ remains supreme over issues of EU law in any dispute.”
Right there is the crucial point for us ‘hard core’ Leavers. Nigel Farage’s rejection of the thing now makes more sense and should not be interpreted as sour grapes. Meanwhile some of the Spartans have broken rank while others, wisely, kept their powder dry:
“Andrew Bridgen, the MP for North West Leicestershire, told The Times that he was encouraged, saying: “The more I find out about it the more I like it.” He said that he would be “much more comfortable if the DUP come on board” but he was willing to vote for the deal if he thought that “it was right for the country”, regardless of what Arlene Foster’s party eventually decided. […] Peter Bone, the veteran Eurosceptic, told LBC radio: “If I think it is good enough, I will vote for it. My instinct is to support the prime minister as I think he is doing everything he can. But never commit yourself before you’ve read the detail.” (link, paywalled)
The Remain Harlots are already working hard on their next attempt to get rid of Brexit, to be tabled and voted for on Saturday, thanks to Letwin’s amendment:
“The group […] have decided against tabling a second referendum amendment on the deal. […] They now plan to table a technical amendment to strengthen the Benn Act. Mr Bebb said: “There are some people in the ERG saying they might vote for it on Saturday and not for the Bill next week – to get around the Benn Act. We’re not taking any risks.” The amendment would force Mr Johnson to send the letter asking for a Brexit delay even if he wins the vote on his deal. Mr Bebb said it is an “insurance policy” that would be negated if the legislation for the deal passed in time for Oct 31.” (paywalled link)
If you wonder how they can even think of getting an extension when M Juncker told the BBC yesterday morning that he doesn’t see the need for one as they now have ‘The Deal’, here’s why:
“The European Union is on standby to hold an emergency summit in ten days’ time to agree a third delay to Brexit. In a blow to Boris Johnson, EU leaders refused yesterday to rule out another extension […] Amid widespread pessimism that he will lose the Commons vote, most EU governments are preparing for another delay to be requested, as required by the Benn act.” (link, paywalled)
That will certainly encourage the Remain Harlots to keep plugging away. Next, EU sources inadvertently hint at what they really hope to achieve:
“The length of any extension would be the EU’s decision and it could insist on a longer delay than the Benn act’s requirement of February 2020. Some EU leaders and senior officials have not hidden their desire for a longer extension, to next June or even later, tied to conditions requiring Britain to rethink Brexit.” (link, paywalled)
To “Rethink Brexit” obviously means for us to revoke Article 50 and to stay in the EU. Heed that warning! There’s more, showing how the EU can force that extension on us:
“The EU is ready to deal with a scenario in which Mr Johnson refuses to ask for an extension himself. It is ready to grant a request made by a representative of the government, such as Sir Tim Barrow, the ambassador to the EU. According to diplomats, no European leader — not even President Macron of France, the most hardline — has reached the point of wanting to veto an extension and force Britain out.” (link, paywalled)
That Ms Merkel is now going to ask the EU for a rebate on German contributions because of Brexit (here) is the final, ironic cherry on the Brexit-Deal-Cake.
I am not only dissatisfied with that deal because of the issues raised by Sir John Redwood, especially in regard to us still staying under the boots of the ECJ. There is one other point which slipped under the horizon yesterday. The deal allows us to start FTA negotiations on the 1st of November should it become Law on Halloween, with the next wrecking opportunity:
“The EU’s chief negotiator [Barnier] is lined up to work with Phil Hogan, the incoming trade commissioner […] Mr Hogan, who is Irish, has earned a reputation as Brussels’ Brexit attack dog. He will have Mr Barnier’s formidable former trade negotiator Sabine Weyand as his chief civil servant. Mr Barnier lining up alongside Mr Hogan and Ms Weyand will present a sizeable challenge for untested British officials negotiating the EU-UK free trade agreement. Those negotiations are predicted to be even more difficult than the withdrawal negotiations.” (paywalled link)
We’ll still be in the claws of Barnier and his side-kick – let that sink in! We now have to wait for the EU Leaders verdict, for the Spartans to make up their minds and must wait for tomorrow’s session in the HoC with the Brexit wreckers to the fore.
While BoJo and JRM were jubilantly trying to set the mood for tomorrow, praising that ‘Deal’ to the high heavens, the Remainers are in a stronger position than Johnson. They have the numbers to wreck the whole thing, unlike Johnson who is struggling to find a majority.
Even if the ‘Deal’ goes through tomorrow – don’t believe for a moment that it’s now thankfully all over. It is not. This is only the beginning with more wrecking opportunities ahead, so we’ll
KBO!
Bojo’s BRINO is not good enough. Either we leave properly ( clean break) or we make our politicos leave Parliament. End of…..
When we finally GET a GE, to hell with the tactical voting thingy, I’ll vote Brexit party if I can. By doing so I might split the BREXIT supporting vote, letting Corbyn in and all that, but at the moment NF looks like the ONLY Real BREXIT politician. (Apart from Sir John that is.)
OK so lets repeal article 50 and have Nigel as our commisoner and all our MEP’s to vote against all motion in the eu parliment and keep adding clauses to all motions. Make it so nothing is done but keep claiming expenses for every thing you can think of
Like falling down an ancient, deep mine shaft, it’s easier to join the EU with nothing to contribute than to get out, the more you try the smoother the sides get, with no footholds and absolutely nothing to let you climb up the hole. Boris has in his hand the only way of escape from the EU quagmire, just leave with no deal on October 31. If Britain’s Supreme Court has Britain’s success and wellbeing in their sight, they should reject any further effort the rebel MPs are are trying to enact the Benn Act to stymie Boris taking us out on 31 October.
The Redwood take on BoJos deal. (Lipstick, pigs, on)
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/
Leading Think Tanks Call for MPs to Reject ‘Defective’ Brexit Deal:
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2019/10/18/leading-think-tanks-call-mps-reject-defective-brexit-deal/
Let’s hope that they do just that.
My 3 questions in regard of deal:
1. How much “New deal” will cost and over what period?
2. How future government could terminate this deal?
3. When the UK will start FTA talks with the USA?
Looks like Boris is the new May. Our only (slim?) hope is that his deal will be kicked out today and somehow he is able to respect his promise of getting us out on the 31st. If he fails to do that then he is simply one more traitor who has done tremendous damage to our country.
Of course the destruction of the EU must be a prime objective whatever else transpires.
Boris resigned from the Cabinet in July 2018 over May’s Chequers deal which he described as ‘entirely preposterous ‘ and ‘deranged ‘. Tomorrow he will put forward what looks like the same ‘treaty ‘ with a few minor tweaks to be voted on in parliament. This WA and PD is not Leaving the EU. It’s a reheated sellout designed by the EU negotiators to be both a punishment ‘pour encourager les autres’ and a revolving door back into the EU.
“The ECJ remains supreme over issues of EU law in any dispute.” The EU can enforce its decisions in its own jurisdiction And an independent Britain can enforce its decisions in its own jurisdiction.
I find it strange that this deal is regarded as akin to the ten Commandments – written in stone. It is nothing more than a cobbled together “deal” to give the impression that both sides are getting what they want – obviously the best option for gaining independence from the EU. Nothing in life is settled. And as I said in a previous comment EU rules seem to be extremely flexible.
The aim that should be kept in mind is INDEPENDENCE.
Looks like Groundhog Day. We went through all this with the last Prime Minister. New Prime Minister knows full well nobody voted for him to deliver ‘the vassal state’.
If Parliament votes this through they go further down the rabbit hole of deceit. Pretending to leave is going to mean regularly repeating some whoppers about who runs this country.
I am going to state the b****ing obvious.
It does seem to me that within Parliament the two groups Leavers and Remainers. Each group have a wider tolerance of opinion that could be described as wider scope of agreement represented by a concentric circle of greater diameter.
The annuli of these two groups overlap and so there will be those who could agree. But number of MPs within that overlap and who would agree will never be anywhere sufficient in numbers for an agreement to be made for a deal between the UK and the EU.
Therefore Parliament will tear itself apart trying to achieve the impossible. The spirit of governance in the UK is based on a representative democracy, yet the result is being forced to a point where procedures and parliamentary mechanisms will decide the result, against the will of the people and against the spirit of governance in the UK.
If that happens then there could be four outcomes.
• The people will fight it out at the next GE. Many of the politicians in Parliament today will not survive a GE and Leavers will win forcing a withdrawal from international treaties as ‘It is Parliament that decides what is or is not legal’.
• The above but with apathy there will be acquiescence. The UK will become a disruptive member of the EU and the whole ship with us on it will sink.
• Boris Johnson will come up with a way of getting out without a deal on the 31st October come, and it surely will, hell and high water.
• The UK will become a subservient colony of the EU and eventually be split up with areas joining others of the continent in a Regional plan. But then all will eventually sink after a longer period.
There is of course a fifth and that is anarchy. Many of us will support action but in the end UK citizens are too comfortable, fickle and subdued to do this and with the advent of technology and ten thousand foreign troops and uprising would be squashed.
Just my take.
“Leavers will win forcing a withdrawal from international treaties as ‘It is Parliament that decides what is or is not legal’.”
Back to basics please. THE PEOPLE decide what is lawful or not lawful through Common Law Trial by Jury and Nullificatioin by Jury of laws which are not acceptable to the people. Such is our heritage and we ignore it at our peril.
The only power ordinary people have is their vote. Hence if a GE returns this country to a proper representative democracy that wishes Independence, then those Treaties can be assigned to the trash can. All wishful thinking of course. We are in the mire.
When you join a club you sign to agree to abide by the rules (treaty, if international) and you start paying your subscription. If you decide to leave you give notice, then cancel your subscription and cease to be a member on the due date. If you have been supplying goods and services to that club whilst a member, and want to continue mutually beneficial trade, you agree a new trade deal from the new perspective of two independent bodies.
So remind me, why exactly do you need a treaty to leave? Why should the club have any further say over any field of your life? That is not leaving but exchanging one set of rules for another, and it certainly does not leave you free and in charge of your own life/destiny.
Let us pray the deal/treaty is rejected. No one doubts there will be minor short term teething in some areas, as when you move house or job (or divorce!) but, as in these cases, it is always surprising how soon things normalise and the benefits kick in.
Johnson has made fools of us all , he deserves to be dead in a ditch .
Well,you might be right. Or maybe it’s a cunning plan to get us out with No Deal?
His cunning plan is to reheat May’s Vassalage deal, make everyone believe he is a Brexit martyr/hero who was thwarted by the nasty Remainers, while doing everything he can to ensure he cannot deliver a proper Brexit. He is as much of a Remainer as May is. Why did he allow the Benn bill to become Law? He could have advised the Queen to withhold Queen’s Consent, or, failing that, Royal Assent.
If you wantto know, follow the lines to fisheries. the SNP should be incandescant
The SNP are delighted to sell out their own fishermen .
I recommend you read this summary on the deal, published just now by Facts4EU:
https://facts4eu.org/news/2019_oct_eu_treaty_for_uk_colonisation
Then decide if you’re with BoJo and JRM and think it’s a wonderful thing – or if you’re with Sir John Redwood and the DUP and think this is in fact not wonderful at all …
It is also worth to refresh “The top 40 horrors lurking in the small print of Theresa May’s Brexit deal” (https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/the-top-40-horrors-lurking-in-the-small-print-of-theresa-mays-brexit-deal-2/) as I believe in most of the cases they remain in place with this “new, great” deal, I mean treaty. Is the full consolidated text of “Boris deal” available? To refresh some of them:
-The jurisdiction of the ECJ will last until eight years after the end of the transition period (Article 158).
– Any disputes under the Agreement will be decided by EU law only (Article 168).
– The UK must promise never to tax former EU officials based here on their E.U. pensions, or tax any current Brussels bureaucrats on their salaries. The EU and its employees are to be immune to our tax laws. (Article 104)
– The UK agrees not to prosecute EU employees who are, or who might be deemed in future, criminals (Art.101)
– The UK agrees to spend taxpayers’ money telling everyone how wonderful the agreement is. (Article 37)
Farage and Corbyn now on the same side. Both declared their opposition even before the document was released. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtMV44yoXZ0
It’s funny but I’ve looked at a lot of different analysis from different places and they’re all different. There is a lot of lies and propagands flying about. I actually trust Viv more than anyone else but apart from Viv, what a nest of vipers!
There are so many lies being told!
Guy Fawkes was a prophet.
T G Spokes. Now there’s a thought !
Completely agree with you Viv, and its not even the beginning of the end John Redwood as usual hits the nail on the head, if that deal goes through wait for the fan to be hit. Anyone surprised by the events of yesterday should remember the ovation that Boris gave May. Clean break on Oct 31st it is then.
Keep Being Optimistic (KBO).
I am, as I still think there is a cunning plan somewhere under all this theatrical froth.
There is and it is becoming more and more obvious.Nothing to be optimistic though, BRINO is coming (further extension or revoke of Art. 50). Since the beginning I was in the position that the only chance to have a proper Brexit (and still not very probably one) is to for then UKIP or now TBP to have majority after GE. Establishment politicians, judiciary and media will never allow for this.
Optimism is always preferable, but I’ve become tired of hearing about a huge masterful plan, all secret, and sunshine and woolly little lambs gambolling happily ever after come Nov 1st …
Meanwhile the Brexit Blockers have yet another legal challenge speeding through the Scottish courts;
https://unitynewsnetwork.co.uk/legal-challenge-anti-brexit/
Strange how Pro EU actions are rushed through with such haste , yet any anti EU actions take months and any verdict in their favour seem to be overturned within two days on appeal .
Yes, it’s so blatant. They keep slapping us in the face and they wonder why people get angry!!
The Scottish courts, by definition, should not be able to exercise judgement over the whole of the UK. If the Scots want independence than let this practice continue and give us the vote on their separation.