A nice ditch – Johnson ain’t in it as of yet …

Sometimes I wonder if there’s some kind of secret ‘division of labour’, some sort of agreement between the Brussels correspondents and the EU/Europe editors of our broadsheets. I’ve noticed for some time that on a given day, usually one of them – regardless of being Brexit-inclined or RemainCentral – was giving over more space to EU News than the other.

This morning it was blatant: some Brussels ‘sources’ were telling the RemainCentral EU correspondent about what the EU can and will do – more on that below – but there was nothing on this in the DT or indeed elsewhere. I’m certain the DT Brussels correspondents will have their stuff published tomorrow while RemainCentral will take a rest …!

There’s an article in the DT by Lord Tebbit (paywalled, here) though, where Brexit is in the title, but there’s nothing substantial about it in the article itself: “It’s time to consign the word ‘Brexit’ to the history books, and get on with self-government” – yes, Lord Tebbit, that would be lovely, but I’m not counting my chicks before they’re hatched! Above all I refuse to be ‘conciliatory’ nor will I fall for that fluffy sentiment of ‘healing’ our ‘divided nation’ when powerful interests in the establishment here and across the Channel are doing their best to keep that division alive, preventing the ‘healing’ they allegedly crave – provided it’s on their, not our, conditions.

Then there’s that Timmermans ‘love letter’ which was published in the Guardian yesterday (here). Publishing it in the Guardian was clever because it’ll get read by the whole of the BBC and thus disseminated much more widely than by the Remain readership of the Guardian alone. Why Mr Timmermans thinks that such letter, written now, after yet another clear victory for Leave in the GE, will have an effect on us is his secret – although, given the timing, I have my suspicions! First though, here’s what Iain Duncan Smith said to the DT:

“The letter “sums up the arrogance of the EU who fail to see just how stale their system is. In his letter he [Timmermans] talks a lot about us, but he never talks about the EU’s failings. Instead of writing a letter to us he’d have been far better off writing a letter to the European Commission and to all of the heads of state considering how things went so badly wrong for them.” Mr Duncan Smith […] argued that “we didn’t leave the EU, the EU left the UK, […] But politics is never about jilted lovers.” (paywalled link)

It’s indeed not about jilted lovers or even about Mr Timmermans’ ‘love’ for Great Britain – I recall a certain Mr Verhofstadt also professing his undying love for us! – this letter is about preparing the ground for the coming negotiations with Brussels once Johnson’s withdrawal agreement has been cooked and we’re officially Out on the last day of next month. It’s the tried-and-tested carrot-and-stick routine: Mr Timmermans tells us about his ‘love’ while his ‘diplomats’ show us the stick – and it’s a big one. The Times reports from Brussels:

“Brussels will threaten to block the City of London’s access to European markets in an opening salvo of post-Brexit trade talks in the new year. EU chiefs will also warn Downing Street that they could put up barriers to data flows vital to British commerce. In two weeks European governments will begin internal talks with, according to a restricted document, “possible decisions on adequacy [personal data] and equivalence [financial services]”.The two decisions will be central to the EU’s negotiating strategy because both will be crucial for the British economy in terms of data flows critical for smooth commerce and the future of financial services, which account for 7 per cent of Britain’s output.” (link, paywalled)

We knew that the EU would be preparing instruments to thwart Johnson’s plans to leave on December 31st next year, deal or not. So far it’s only “we could be very nasty to you even while we love you”, but the threat is real.Here’s more, with the inevitable quote from “a source”:

“These are both big levers for the EU,” a senior European diplomatic source said. “Data adequacy and equivalence are decisions under our direct control, decisions that can be reversed at any time and that will be linked to progress in the wider negotiations.” (link, paywalled)

Let that sink in: we’re being told that the EU can and will be prepared to unilaterally (!) restrict our access to EU markets – a political  decision under their control alone. This is no idle threat, the EU has already got the necessary instruments:

“Under the “equivalence” regime the European Commission will allow the City access to European markets on the condition that financial regulations mirror European rules. Access can be withdrawn or restricted on a sector-by-sector basis with 30 days’ notice and previous EU equivalence decisions have been linked to broader political questions. […] This year the EU showed its willingness to use such decisions as an explicitly political lever to threaten Switzerland in trade treaty talks. The strategy was, according to an internal commission document, directly linked to the forthcoming “decisive phase regarding Brexit”.”(link, paywalled)

No idle threat indeed! Not much was made of this EU diktat at the time – you recall that in June was enthralled by the Tory Party being in the throes of electing a new Leader after Ms May’s resignation.

Here’s a brief explanation of what this leverage, these  instruments, might mean in practice:

“While Britain might have a goods trade deficit with the EU, it has a surplus on services owing to its strong banking, insurance and IT sectors. This makes the UK vulnerable to unilateral changes in EU or national rules designed to exclude British competition. For example, after Brexit the ability of the British financial services sector to trade in the EU will be covered by a process known as equivalence. In effect this is an EU ruling that British companies abide by the same rules as European competitors. However, it is a unilateral decision with no right of appeal and at present can be withdrawn with only a month’s notice.” (link, paywalled)

Let me hammer home the crucial points: this EU decision is unilateral, they can do it at any time, for political reasons,  and there’s no right of appeal. That’s “EU Love”! However, Brussels will also use this ‘leverage’ to put more pressure on our negotiators:

“Leverage will also be exerted on the timetable of talks to pressurise Britain to agree a treaty allowing European access to British fishing waters by July next year and potentially to bounce the government into other sectoral deals beneficial to the EU. […] “The UK will need to be absolutely united otherwise the EU will play divide and rule, […]” David Henig, UK director of the European Centre For International Political Economy, said. “The EU absolutely does not want the UK to leave their regulatory orbit so that is the leverage.” (link, paywalled)

In that last sentence is the actual reason both for the Brussels sources telling Brussels correspondents what they have in store for the coming negotiations and for the Timmermans letter. Even now, as we prepare to finally Leave, they are doing their utmost to reinforce our shackles – only out of their undying love for our country, of course!

If you thought that it’s all over bar the shouting – think again. Also, don’t forget that Johnson, thanks to his majority, may get his Treaty through its 3rd reading with no problem – but he therefore would also not have any problem to repeal that Law. What would prevent him from telling the Nation that ‘it’s too difficult so we have to stay in a bit longer’? Quiz question: “who hasn’t died in a ditch last autumn?” We’ve not forgotten …!

I apologise for thus darkening your festive break and the last hours of this dying year, but Remain isn’t resting, so we must

KBO!