“Our Agincourt” – image courtesy of John Hart (here)
We ought to know by now that those who most loudly screech about not being listened to are the ones who never listen themselves. We saw female MPs making this their only point in the interminable debates in the HoC, culminating in that unconstitutional take-over by Ms Cooper (L) and Sir Oliver Letwin (T).
The same happened in the debate yesterday in the House of Lords where actual hereditary Lords are in a tiny minority – 90 out of 782 – thanks to the ‘reform’ of Labour PM Blair. It is now a place full of politicians put to grass and of ‘party donors’ who were able to buy their way in.
Still, this is the Second Chamber which must pass legislation coming from the HoC, and that’s what the Remain HoC was expecting, having passed the Cooper/Letwin Bill in an unconstitutional sitting by one vote, that vote being cast by a convicted, tagged criminal on day release – but mentioning that is somehow disrespectful … (here and here, paywalled).
The HoL, as Remain as the HoC, was also expected to drive this Bill through in yesterday’s one sitting. What struck me was the feverish fervour with which the Labour/Remain peers went ahead. It was the same sort of political bulldozing we saw in the HoC on Wednesday.
One Tory peer after the other pointed out the huge damage to Constitution and procedure this HoC Bill had created in the first place. One after the other pointed out that by ramming this Bill through the damage to the HoL and the peers themselves would be incalculable. One after the other pointed out that this Bill was defective, and that even the author, Oliver Letwin, said he expected the Lords to correct those deficiencies, obviously expecting at least some debate.
All to no avail: Labour Peers wanted to steamroller this bill through in one day, and that was that. Here’s a report, with video of one ancient Peeress being confused. Well, I found the proceedings somewhat confusing as well but, after having watched, must say that those who still have all their marbles were sharp, to the point, and unlike the MPs in ‘the other place’ did speak freely: no reading of speeches out loud from a piece of paper.
In the end the Bill got read, but wasn’t driven through. The Lords now have to meet again on this Bill on Monday. This delay was due to the excellent filibustering of the Tory peers – I recognised some of the Old Warhorses like Michael Howard and Nigel Lawson – but of course both the Labour Peers and the Remain MSM are aghast and angry that these peers tried to filibuster! What a horrible thing to do:
“Brexiteer Lords attempted last night to talk out a bill that could force Theresa May to ask for a long extension to Article 50 next week. After MPs backed a bill brought by Yvette Cooper on Wednesday by one vote, Labour introduced a timetabling motion to allow the legislation to be completed in one sitting of the Lords. However, peers opposed to a Brexit delay and backed by the government tried to filibuster the bill by introducing a raft of amendments and speaking at length on each one. It meant that Lords did not move on to discussing the bill until after 7pm — nearly eight hours after they began their debate. A deal was struck between government and opposition whips under which the debate will stretch into Monday, a partial victory for the Brexiteers led by Lord Forsyth of Drumlean, the former Scottish secretary.” (paywalled link)
Meanwhile on ‘the other side of the House’, the situation is as confused and confusing as ever. Ms May’s ‘delegates’ (Remainers all) were still talking to the Labour delegates (Remainers all) to reach some sort of something. Of course, the real power, Whitehell, was represented in the form of Mr Olly Robbins, to see that the sheep didn’t stray too far off the grass …
While Tory grassroots and even some MPs and even – the horror! – some Ministers are aghast and angered by this May ploy, they are still dithering and chatting about what to do while time rolls on – see e.g. here, or see the latest ‘warning’ article by Jacob Rees-Mogg (paywalled, here). One would like to tell them, in crude language, to sh*t or get off the pot, but they have isolated themselves from us to such an extent that we might as well inhabit different planets.
Meanwhile Ms May will be busy writing letters today – one to Mr Corbyn, one to the EU. Her desperate attempts to reach a compromise with Mr Corbyn illustrate how far she and her Remain ministers have sold us out:
“Senior ministers told their Labour counterparts yesterday that Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the European Union already includes a customs union “in all but name”. In a disclosure that will infuriate Tory backbenchers, a team of ministers led by Mrs May’s deputy, David Lidington, attempted to persuade Labour to back the deal because the small print already contains many of their demands. The claim was made during four and a half hours of talks yesterday between senior Tory and Labour ministers in an attempt to thrash out a joint approach to Brexit that could command a majority in the House of Commons.” (paywalled link)
Moreover, since a certain Mr Phil Hammond opined yesterday that a 2nd Referendum would be a good way forward, we read that yes, this is an option they also presented:
“A team of four ministers led by David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister, held four and a half hours of talks with their Labour counterparts on Thursday during which the idea of offering a second referendum was discussed as an option. […] Government sources played down the idea that such a plan had been agreed, as Downing Street rebuked Philip Hammond for suggesting that Parliament should have another chance to vote on a second referendum.” (link, paywalled)
Obviously, letting cats out of bags is not appreciated … Even without having reached a compromise with Corbyn as of yet, Ms May will now write to the EU and ask for an extension to Article 50 (here). It doesn’t matter one bit that even her Attorney General is cautioning against it – or is ‘in open revolt’, according to RemainCentral, the Times (paywalled):
“Cabinet members were in open revolt yesterday. Geoffrey Cox, the attorney-general, told the BBC that the extension was likely to be “longer than just a few weeks or months”. He said that Mrs May “would have little choice but to accept the extension that she’s offered” as a result of legislation passing through the Lords last night that would enable MPs to force her to seek more time.”.
We must take a leaf out of Ms May’s ‘playbook’. Just as she is banging her head against brickwalls to get her WA through, we must do the same: keep emailing our MPs and our local and the national papers.
The mood outside the Westminster Bubble is hardening, people want the No Deal Brexit, as I reported yesterday. Be relentless – it’s up to us and to us alone!
Brexit Betrayal + 7,
or will it be No Brexit at all?
KBO!
Newport-West By-Election:
Commiserations to Neil Hamilton, while it is reasonable to be upbeat about the increased vote share that UKIP achieved, ultimately the party lost, by coming in third place, someway behind the Labour candidate.
The main problem here, which gets overlooked by much of the media and commentators is the low turnout, as pointed out by Kim in her comment below.
Even the BBC reported “Eleven candidates stood, with the 37% turnout higher than some had predicted.” So we have reached a point where a 37% turnout is spun as being ‘good’?
The total electorate is quoted as 63623 and with a turnout of 37.1% 23615 votes were cast. That means that 40008 people did not bother to vote. http://www.newport.gov.uk/en/Council-Democracy/Elections-and-voting/Election-results/Newport-West-By-election-results.aspx
Labour ‘won’ the seat with 9308 votes, I make that just 14.63% of the total electorate.
And this is the major problem here, democracy of the minority. Low voter turnouts suit the Establishment parties, because they will always have their hardcore ‘die-hard’ voters, who will vote Labour or Tory no matter what.
How different the results would have been, if the 40000 people who chose not to vote had made the effort to go out and exercise their democratic right! If just half of them had stepped up and voted UKIP, because they were fed up with Labour, Tories and Plaid Cymru (etc), it would have been a trouncing!
Voter apathy keeps the Establishment parties in power. If smaller parties can find a way to engage with those who have given up on voting, that is the key to breaking the Establishment monopoly. That needs to be the message that we send out, not just UKIP, but other smaller parties like For Britain, Democrats & Veterans, even the Greens!
The party system does have its flaws, but it suits the Establishment parties far too much when a majority of voters just don’t bother. If we want real change, we have to be prepared to vote for it!
Now it has been confirmed that we have been governed from Berlin. Via Brussels/Strasbourg for the past 40 years. When Heath sold us. Then kept the receipt. Why do we need a government in Westminster. The fabric of the building is crumbling. The inmates of lying ,deceitful Rodents are in a worse state than the building . The wrecking ball is the answer to both problems..We know much of their time has Been spent at the Claims Office and scoffing subsidised Scran And Krug . But surely Moonlighting is not their only other activity. Do many of them make frequent trips to Panama.? Do any of them do PAYE?.
Perhaps someone can flood the bathroom above the HOC – seemed to work recently.
The great sadness here is that Nigel blew Brexit when he packed in the leadership of UKIP. His claim that he wanted his life back looked rather shallow when he re-entered the limelight via Donald Trump’s election campaign. IMHO if he’d stayed on as leader after the referendum UKIP would be polling in the 20-25%% region now. More importantly, with UKIP on a high poll rating Remainer May & the Tories would probably have to opt for WTO.
Had Farage remained leader then UKIP would have avoided the debacle of the James/Nuttall/ Bolton leaderships and Batten’s obsession with Robinson and Islam.
Neil’s a great campaigner but the Newport result is very, very bad news for UKIP. In 2014 we were hammering the Tories in places like Wythenshawe & Sale East & Heywood & Middleton (18% & 39% vote share respectively). The Newport by-election depressingly shows voters are still tribal, even when their parties are dumping on them. Of course this is what LabCon will be banking on when they neuter Brexit, that the Leave plebs will continue to vote for them.
Frankly, if UKIP can’t even break through 10% (when the Tories poll 31%) in a by-election in the midst of massive Tory Brexit betrayal then it’s time for UKIP to pack up and let a new Brexit party take on the Remain Establishment, otherwise the Leave vote will be cannibalised.
If Brexit doesn’t happen in the next few weeks/years then history will not be kind to Farage or UKIP who collectively will have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
I have to agree with John Bickley. Neil Hamilton was by far the best candidate in Newport West, yet he came third, even in Chartist territory. I regret UKIP does not have the broad appeal and so the only sensible thing is to row in behind the most likely strong challenger to the establishment, musical chair parties. That looks like being The Brexit Party.
We shall NEVER get a better chance in FPTP dudtem weighted against challengers to the establishment.
Let’s not funk it.
Farage has let his supporters in UKIP down very badly and would do so again. He now has the gall to come back and show his face again just when its getting to the 11th hour. I can’t understand anyone trusting him or wanting to give him- or his party – a second chance. The Tories have him just where they want him, and farage’s supporters are playing into their hands.
If he’d had his way there wouldn’t have been a UKIP to fight Newport W, and I firmly believe he only created his new party to kill off UKIP.
Can’t fault your viewpoint. Lets hope a Nigel ‘Mark 2’ comes along in the forthcoming leadership elections to shake the Party up.
What is clear is that whilst Nigel has the attention of the media and is a good performer but UKIP, with Gerard at the helm, has an organisation complete with (depleted) regional and branch structures and c 28000 members.
The Brexit Party, as it stands currently, has lost two out of three of its officers ( Catherine and Mick ) to the scalphunters at HnH and the Guardian and although I have no doubt it has many followers, or potential ones, it has no members or grassroots activists to tramp the streets.
John, you know the personalities better than most and plenty of experience at the top of UKIP. Is there any chance even at this late stage of engineering any form of working alliance or a merger of the two parties, or are the divisions too wide?
Ego’s Mr Bav, ego’s. And one of them is very large. It was fairly common knowledge in the party that Farage & Batten are not bosom buddies, so I worry that they might put themselves and their parties before country. We need one credible Brexit party that Leave voters can coalesce around.
Unfortunately, a lot of voters think UKIP has had its chance and blew it. They equate a successful UKIP with Farage.
Farage has often ranted that the NEC got in his way which is pure bunkem; it never stopped him from doing what was necessary. Now he heads what is effectively his own party he hasn’t got any excuses not to deliver, because he dropped the ball by leaving the leadership and then the party and probably enabled the Tories under Remainer May to renege on their referendum and manifesto promises to deliver what the people voted for, Brexit.
I left the EGM Birmingham on the 17th of feb with feeling of elation knowing Gerard Batten had the leadership.
The bolton was a farage man in my book and as such a conduit for input from farage into the UKIP party.
When farage seen that a revival of UKIP was taking place in very short order under Gerard Batten he went into a Pearl Harbour attack mode, unexpected and unwarranted on both leadership and members.
As for decrying the personal advisor Gerard Batten / Tommy Robinson link It is my honest belief that very shortly we will be in need of many more TRs.
By the by can any of you without sin tell me exactly what Tommy Robinson has done ? is it as bad as the deceit and treachery we are suffering now ?
I agree wholeheartedly Neil is an excellent politician who should have done well. Newport get who they deserve. Everyone thinks NIgel will lead them to the promised land but only UKIP had the infrastructure in place to do that. The foot soldiers have been badly let down. As for emailing MP’s mine is not replying to any. He’s probably job hunting!
It’s incredibly sad.
For a strong LEAVE constituency to just go along as ever with the FPTP / Rotten Borough system …………..I despair…..
Nothing seems to dent the iron grip of FPTP ~ Lab continue to win in their heartlands and Tories in theirs……..
This at least might give you a laugh: ( Hitler rants about Brexit )
FYI:
You can find the full text of Ms May’s letter here:
https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2019/04/the-united-kingdom-is-seeking-a-further-extension-to-30th-june-2019-mays-latest-letter-to-tusk.html
I’d like to warn everybody of now pinning their hopes on an EU Election. It might just possibly happen, but one ‘source’ yesterday explained that the aim is a ‘flexitension’, with the hope of getting That Deal done and rubber-stamped on May 21st so that no election will be needed – see yesterday’s “Daily Brexit Betrayal”.
We can no longer trust a word the lying PM is saying.
The EU election means nothing to the vast majority of the electorate who don’t even know who their MEP is. It makes no difference to parliamentary arithmetic. It means a lot to the MEPs who currently hold seats though. I actually believe that Gerard really does want to end his career as an MEP and ASAP, but he’s in a minority , there are many loathsome bone-idle hangers on , wannabes and defectors wishing to wallow in the pig-stye of self-interest who certainly do not.
The prime purpose of the parties that have a Brexit agenda should just be to force the Tories to get us out of the EU. As such Neil Hamilton’s performance was encouraging. However it will not amount to much unless his 9% share rises to at least a 15%- 20% share across the board at a general election, an election which will surely come. Fair play though. UKIP did well enough in Newport given the circumstances.
I would be wary of other Brexit -ish parties outside of UKIP right now. For Britain and the Vets performed abysmally. The Brexit Party did not stand a candidate ( Leaders can’t have full-time radio shows folks …. ) and despite Nigel’s rhetoric about storming an EU election, well, that doesn’t matter, as its Parliamentary seats that count, not EU ones.
Of course UKIP cannot get to that 20% figure that wins Westminster seats until and unless it does three things. It needs to ditch Tommy Robinson and quieten down the anti- Islamic slant. Then it needs to realign with the all -powerful media as a more moderate entity. Tough for Gerard to change and admit to as he is so stubborn, but essential for the arithmetic in a FPTP system if UKIP is to really scare the Tories into getting rid of May and securing a hard Brexit.
Meanwhile, the impasse continues, and as I said last week, that ‘National Unity’ compromise looms ever closer as the May/Corbyn dialogue carries on. Be in no doubt that’s even now still more than likely. If she fails completely, then the general election WILL result in a Corbyn victory.
It’s the damned arithmetic again.
Do ANY of us want that?
“loathsome bone-idle hangers on , wannabes and defectors wishing to wallow in the pig-stye of self-interest who certainly do not.” Does Nigel Farage come under this description by any chance?
“And quieten down the anti islamic slant” do you mean sort of like it was quietened down in rotherham for 16 plus years, something like that ?
As I say we are as a country going to need a great many more Tommy Robinson’s in the very near future
It should be clear now that May is a serial liar and quite possibly hasn’t spoke a word of truth where it mattered, either as Home Secretary or Prime Minister.
The waves I get from the commentators on Newsnight tonight ( not a single pro Brexit pundit in a line up of five ) is that in fact Lab and Tory negotiators are already extremely close in terms of the compromises they are reaching for ( all in the direction of an even more Brino ~y abasement / surrender Arrangement than May’s abortion already is.).
Thus I suspect that either she will now cobble something along those lines together with Corbyn, or by being about to do so will finally push the remaining ERG supporters of the Tory Manifesto over the line to ‘support’ her WA.
Frankly she has plenty of time between now and May 22 to get one or other ‘deal’ over the line and then call off the Euro Elections because the UK will ‘Leave’ the evening prior to them happening. [ Meanwhile UKIP will have spent a fortune on ads and whatnot ~so she gets yet another bonus there. ]
The Newport result can only embolden her to carry on doing what she’s doing ( Tories increased their share of the vote .)
One of the bizarrest things which the Newsnight people all agreed on was how ‘stubborn’ and ‘unbending’ she is…….
Well, maybe ~but where was that stubbornness when the EU negotiators demanded concession after concession and all she ever said was ‘ Yes please, how much higher shall I jump ? ‘
Sadly, the people of Newport had their opportunity yesterday to punish the Remainist parties by voting UKIP ~but it appears only 8% chose to do so. We had an excellent candidate as well, in Neil Hamilton.
The FPTP / Rotten Borough system ensures that the two major parties can continue to stitch things up between them, taking turns at the trough, forever and ever [ continues à la Demis Roussos ] ………
Despair beckons, unfortunately.
https://www.makevotesmatter.org.uk/home
That is precisely how coalitions work, and fairs fair it is jerries turn next.
It seems to me that the EU are playing us like a fish on a hook, the only difference is that a fish would try to escape, our politicians just don’t even want to try and escape and are content to stay on the hook.
The result for the Newport West by-election showed that 23,515 voted out of an electorate of 63263, that is 37.1%, with 100 discounted forms. So all the diehards voted giving us the status quo! hen will people realise that if one is unhappy with the status quo then one has to DO SOMETHING about it. All those Welsh voters who moan about Brexit and the powers that be ARE A WASTE OF SPACE!
And yet the ERG, who once showed at least some promise, will sit on their hands.
You can count the real Brexiteers in parliament on one hand.
Hopefully Her Majesty in anticipation of having to give her assent next week will enjoy a little skinny dipping in The Serpentine over the weekend and end up in bed with a rather nasty case of influenza. Just sufficient to incapacitate her for, oh, lets say, 6 or 7 days before she makes a full and remarkable recovery.
I would not put a Royal tragedy/crisis past the Govt. in the coming weeks . Good taste prevents me from speculating what that might be.
Our beloved leader has asked for an extension from Tusk until June 30 flexible until March 30th 2020 it’s reported, As for the Welsh bi-election there was no UKIP resurgence in Wales with Labour coming first almost 2000 votes ahead of Conservatives. And it’s also reported that May will ignore any cabinet dissent and basically do as she wants. As for Brenda doing anything , forget it the monarch is more worried about what Meg will do or wear next.
Welcome to what used to be the U.K, now a region of Belgium . ‘ Oh the Joy’ It would appear now that there is only one option.
Mass suicide, over the white cliffs of Dover?