Your Brexit weather forecast …
Two major events are dominating the front pages everywhere. I don’t need to mention them here. Brexit news however are sparse. There are a few items though, giving us glimpse of what the future holds.
One definite prediction we can confidently make is that tomorrow the Johnson WA Bill is getting the 3rd Reading. When you look at the calendar for the HoC for tomorrow (here), you’ll notice the description “Committee of the Whole House”. This means that tomorrow’s session in the HoC is a Committee session where all MPs have the opportunity to scrutinise and amend, as they’d do in special committees, before they send a whole bill back to the HoC for the vote. Expect all the Opposition Party amendments to be read, debated and voted down – that’s what Johnson’s majority is there for. It’ll be a long night, especially as the Labour leadership candidates will want to make their mark.
Some have already done so yesterday, with Ms Jess Phillips having created a tsunami in her interview with Andrew Marr yesterday. You can watch her in the relevant clip here – this is what she said:
“Appearing on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show in her first major interview since announcing her candidacy for the party leadership, Ms Phillips said: “If we are living in a paradise of trade and we are totally safe in the world and are not having to constantly look to America for our security, then maybe I will be proven wrong. But the reality is if our country is safer, if it is more economically viable to be in the European Union, then I will fight for that, regardless of how difficult that argument is to make.” (paywalled link)
Well, that’s certainly what is called a ‘USP’, a ‘unique selling point’! She doesn’t say where we’ll have to ‘look for our security’. Does she mean the EU? Blimey …! Meanwhile Sir Keith Starmer, former Brexit Shadow Secretary, said we must ‘move on’:
“Sir Keir said that people wanted “clarity” on the issue that the Labour Party did not provide, adding that the argument for a second referendum “blew away” with the election result and that the conversation must “move on” to the framework for future trade relations.” (paywalled link)
He is getting support in his bid from some Labourites which, according to Andrew Pierce in the DM, he probably could do without:
“Running for the Labour leadership, Sir Keir Starmer […] will doubtless be pleased to hear that Lord Adonis, arch-Remoaner and Transport Secretary under Gordon Brown, has called him Labour’s ‘only hope’, urging people to join ‘ASAP’ and vote for him. […] A further unwelcome Starmer fan is former London Mayor Ken Livingstone. Red Ken […] told me on LBC radio he is ‘incredibly impressed’ with Starmer, adding: ‘I . . . would work to put him into Downing Street because he’s not a ghastly Blairite.’ (link)
Yes, that’s got to be helpful! Mind you, I’d file this under ‘former Labour celebrities will say anything to get into the headlines one more time’. Another candidate is the former Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry who said this:
“Emily Thornberry […] said she personally believed remaining in the EU was the better option for the UK but accepted that Brexit would take place this year. “I think that it’s in Britain’s interests to remain in the EU, but we’re leaving, so what do you do?” she said. “What’s important now is we have a relationship with Europe that’s going to work with jobs and the economy.” (paywalled link)
That, at least, is a pragmatic attitude whereas Ms Phillips displays the ‘we know better than you thick oiks’ stance we so love, especially when it comes from a ‘woman of the people’:
“Pushed by Mr Marr to brand herself a “rejoiner”, Ms Phillips said “we have to wait and see” […] “Boris Johnson has a majority of 80, the Labour Party losing the election has consequences that we have to deal with, and I have to face that,” she said. “I have a Leave seat but I campaigned for Remain because I thought it was the best thing for the people I represent. I am not just going to change my mind on that.” (paywalled link)
The official start to that LLR (Labour Leadership Race) is on Thursday. I’m sure we’ll hear nice waffly words about ‘trust’ from all candidates who don’t seem to have the mental capability to discern that their continuing attitude (“I know better …”) means they won’t be trusted by Labour Leave voters.
Here are the other sort-of Brexit news, this time from the government camp. Firstly, Ms vdLeyen will pay a visit to Johnson on Wednesday. RemainCentral reports:
“Boris Johnson will urge the president of the European Commission this week to push on with trade talks as he seeks to secure a deal with the EU by the end of the year. The prime minister will host Ursula von der Leyen in No 10 for opening talks on Britain’s post-Brexit trade deal with the EU on Wednesday. […] Mr Johnson is determined that the next phase of Brexit talks will be significantly smoother than the first, which were beset by infighting and hostile briefings on both sides.” (link, paywalled)
The Times the brings this extraordinary paragraph which made me rub my eyes. Frankly, I cannot recall the ‘event’ described below, but then at that time we were somewhat preoccupied with the coming GE:
“It will be the first time the president of the European Commission has come to Downing Street since May 2017, when Theresa May hosted Jean-Claude Juncker. A partial account of that meeting was subsequently leaked to the German press amid claims that Mrs May had begged for help and appeared “anxious” and “tormented”. This prompted an extraordinary diplomatic row, with Mrs May subsequently accusing the European Union of trying to “run us over” in Brexit talks before the snap election that year.” (link, paywalled)
At that time we still thought Ms May was going to ‘deliver Brexit’, that the manifestos meant they’d honour our decision in the EU Referendum which had taken place just a year before that meeting.
Other Tory Ministers are now campaigning for Johnson to start trade talks with the USA to run in parallel with the EU talks (here). RemainCentral again has some intriguing info at the bottom of their article on those attempts by Raab and Truss, to start parallel talks. They have labelled this a ‘Tory split’, as if not singing from the same hymn sheet is a disaster for the government. See for yourselves:
“Meanwhile, No 10 is devising plans to publicise the benefits of Brexit in a Whitehall digital revolution. Officials have been ordered to set up a centralised unit to mimic the digital team based in Tory HQ during the general election. Film-makers, television producers and photographers are being sought to produce viral content that “really engages people”. Whitehall departments will be instructed to reduce the number of press officers “writing press releases no one will ever read” so that resources can be refocused on new media.” (link, paywalled)
Oh dear – what will our MSM have to write about when they’re being deprived of bumf to copy and paste into articles …! To me, this looks as if the ‘hour of the sources’ has finally come. We’ll surely get more articles like this one, related to the Cummings ‘reform plans’ for Whitehall:
“Sir Mark Sedwill, the Cabinet Secretary, is understood to have won the trust of Mr Cummings and Sir Eddie Lister, Mr Johnson’s joint chiefs of staff, […] Sir Mark had been tipped to move to the US to replace Sir Kim Darroch who resigned as British ambassador […] However a senior Whitehall source said Sir Mark had “proved his worth to the new regime” and was now being urged to stay in the UK to oversee the changes in Whitehall demanded by Mr Cummings. The source said: “He is getting on well enough with Dominic Cummings and Eddie Lister. They want to use him… they are happy for him to go to Washington in the sense that ‘if this is his dream job we will work it for you’ but do this first’.” (paywalled link)
That’s certainly interesting, the point being that Sir Mark Sedwill certainly knows where the EU skeletons are hidden and is well placed to advise Johnson and his negotiator in regard to Barnier traps past and present. After all, he does want to go to Washington as crowning end to his career …
This then is the outlook for this week’s Brexit weather which may well become overshadowed by events elsewhere. I’ll watch tomorrow’s proceedings in the HoC – we’ll know better how Brexit will be ‘run’ when this week is over.
KBO!
Photo by ShinyPhotoScotland 
Thanks Viv. Ms Phillips really does take the biscuit for ‘I know better than the voters I represent’ doesn’t she.
Prior to that though she displayed such total ignorance of facts about whether the EU has been good or bad for Britain, she made me think of those criminals who apparently become ‘institutionalised’ to prison life. Apparently they feel safer inside rather than face the uncertainties of life outside the prison.
She thinks ‘it is more economically viable’ for the UK to be inside the EU. BUT THE FACTS ARE OUT THERE PLAIN TO SEE that since joining, our economy has shrunk.
When we were asked in 1975 whether we should be in or out, it seemed obvious to me that as an advanced economy we needed to trade with less advanced economies rather than with those we would be competing against. Probably now it is more a case of each doing what we are best at while improving where we are weak.
Ms Phillips then shows a totally irrational fear of ‘America’ In what sense will we be constantly ‘looking to America for our security’?
She really is the prisoner frightened of the world outside the gates. Who is the enemy that will attack Britain the moment we no longer have Big Strong (prison walls) Europe to keep us safe? Err . . . Ms Phillips, where did Napoleon, Kaiser Bill and Hitler come from? Not to mention USSR. When did America fail us?
What is this wonderful big strong neighbour ‘Europe’ going to defend us from?
As for the Labour Party – what do you think folks – should they, are they going to, split in two? Can none of them find some REAL issues to fight for. Even I can see some.
I can’t imagine that the WA will result in a total sell-out of the UK fishing sector. I envisage a partial sell-out, along the lines of “how much will the coastal constituencies stomach ?”. 15 miles exclusive ? What do y’all think ?
” …… tomorrow the Johnson WA Bill is getting the 3rd Reading.”
The question is — will any members of the ERG and others argue for improvements in the WA? Why were they all happy to see it go through the earlier readings without some changes to make it more acceptable to the UK.?
There are many commenters, even Martin Howe QC who originally slaughtered May’s WA, and even Boris and Mogg who heavily criticised May’s WA. So why are they now content to see 95% of it approved under the new PM?
We Leavers are extremely concerned about this being BRINO and wondering what it will lead to. What about the EU having full access to our fishing grounds for another whole year? Fishing for Leave have been warning it could be disastrous for UK fishing. Why has Boris not stipulated that the UK must control fishing on our side of the North Sea from 1st February? The Express reported a week ago the there is a threat that 10 “supertrawlers” were being sent into our waters and Brussels were boasting “there is nothing the UK can do about it”. Is our new Government so incapable that they will stand for what amounts to an act of war? We still have some sort of Navy don’t we?
When are the MSM going to do an analysis of the WA and tell us in detail what it means? The country needs to know.
The MSM are incapable of producing any sensible analysis, let alone a truthful one.
Quite Jack Thomas. We are better off without the MSM producing an analysis because it would be completely tainted by their mindset. (The same mindset Ms Phillips suffers.) I’m sure we can get hold of the wording and analyse it ourselves. And there are plenty of comments out there on the web already.
Hi George. What Cameron/May should have done is repeal the 1973 Act that took us in. Like Gerrard Batten said years ago, Article 50 is a trap to keep us in for as long as possible, they hope for ever. Don’t forget that Boris had to fight hard to get the WA opened at all. It’s a matter of Diplomacy I suppose and it frustrates me to death. I agree that the supertrawlers in our waters amounts to an act of war. And there is Ms Phillips talking about the EU looking after ‘our security’ !!
Even with the good majority Boris has now there are some limits to what he can do when. The EU have said the CFP is one of their ‘red lines’. Well sod that, I say. At some point this year, EU may make a stand on something that UK just must not give away. At least the WA has now been amended to safeguard our ability to walk away ‘no deal’ as in no FTA. Even if it takes a year for that point to be reached and the negotiations ‘fail’ in the sense that we leave ‘no deal’ THEN we will have got WHAT WE WANT including our fishing waters back, our own armed forces, our own legal system, our full sovereignty, trading WTO as members of WTO in our own right, not as part of EU.
I agree about sending our navy to police our fishing grounds. Can’t resist the temptation to suggest this – should we ask America to come and help with ‘our security’ !! Whatever would Ms Phillips say !!