I can’t help but note that across our MSM a certain tiredness has set in as far as politics in general and Brexit in particular are concerned. The BoJo-Hunt campaigns have become more of a circus driven by the MSM with breathless ‘he said – he said’ reports and opinion pieces, leaving readers cold. Both contestants are still acting as if they are running for a new job – President of the UK – trying to convince the whole country to vote for them rather than just the 150,000 or so Tory Party members.
Regarding Brexit, they both are stamping their feet, telling everybody that they will get us out, definitely, by the 31st of October. They have now stopped asking each other how they plan to do it. Mr Farage, who knows a thing or two about the EU, who warned:
“I just don’t think that either of the contenders to be Prime Minister has got the guts to face down the House of Commons and do this.The only way we leave, in my view, at the end of October is if we first have a general election, and change the men and women sitting in Westminster.” (link)
We’ve seen the fierce Remain Resistance in the HoC, where cross-party ‘coalitions’ of Remainers, with the help of the Speaker – who is still clinging on – are trying to keep us in. Their opposition to a No Deal Brexit has become a veritable phobia.
So firstly, let’s look at the replacement EU Leadership candidates. As expected, MSM researchers have dug through their files and come up with finds. The headline in the DM is indicative: ‘Meet the new EU presidents who make Donald Tusk & Co look like saints: One has a criminal conviction and the other is mired in controversy’ .
That report is not paywalled, so you can enjoy reading it as it’s a good background for an extraordinary opinion piece in RemainCentral, The Times (paywalled), where the authors declare that this was an exercise in horse trading – as we’ve pointed out already – but then say that this ‘may work to the advantage of Britain’. This can only be explained by taking into account that they view the whole thing through rose-tinted Remain glasses. Here’s what they say about Madame Lagarde:
“Ms Lagarde has no experience as a central banker. That is not necessarily a drawback. The ECB was late in recognising the severity of the eurozone debt crisis and in countering deflationary pressures in Europe with monetary easing. It has constantly done too little, too late. It is good news for the European economy if its most powerful policymaker is someone other than an orthodox central banker such as Jens Weidmann, the head of the Bundesbank.” (link, paywalled)
God forbid that a competent, ‘orthodox central banker’ becomes head of the ECB and thus responsible not just for the eurozone but the world economy at a time when warning lights are going on all over the world!
After all, should The Times and the Remainers manage to keep us in, the mess the Eurozone is in has to be be irrelevant. even though we’ll be forced to join it! On the other important nominations, The Times writes:
“Yet for all the domestic controversy, and her own belief in European federalism and defence co-operation, Ms von der Leyen is potentially a pragmatic nomination. Ms von der Leyen, whose style is as an administrator rather than an ideologue, is likely to be a more acceptable figure to Britain than Michael Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator on Brexit, who was at one time mooted for the post. Moreover the nomination of Ms von der Leyen […] will probably secure the departure of Martin Selmayr, a civil servant who has proved a divisive and obstructive figure in Britain’s negotiations.” (link, paywalled)
The Times of course omits to mention that Ms von der Leyen is not only fiercely against Brexit but is also fiercely for building that European Army which we’ve been told by Remainers like Nick Clegg, as he then was, doesn’t exist.
What will happen next is that the newly convened EUParl will have to vote on Ms vdL’s nomination. That vote will take place on July 15th. She must achieve an absolute majority, that’s 374 votes of the 746 MEPs. If she doesn’t, she cannot stand again unless the EU Council nominates her a second time.
I’m certain that there’s already an outbreak of arm-twisting and worse in the various EU member states, from the PMs, down to the different party leaders. So let’s assume this scion of EU ‘nobility’, Ms vdL, gets in. Then what?
“With the appointment of the EU’s top posts, here is a firm message for a new prime minister and it is that Europe will not blink because of no-deal Brexit threats made in the Tory leadership race. […] European leaders have been listening and, far from quaking in their shoes, are prepared for a no-deal Brexit, a scenario that both Ursula von der Leyen and Charles Michel [the Belgian Tusk replacement] will handle as the top two EU officials in Brussels.” (link, paywalled)
The timetable, should all play out as Macron and Merkel hope and should Ms vdL get elected, then looks like this:
“Ms Von der Leyen is due to take the commission’s helm at midnight on October 31, the moment Brexit is due to happen unless, as many believe in Brussels, there is a further delay. If it is no-deal, she and Martin Selmayr, the hardline German official who heads the commission civil service, will be in charge. Their first task will be to minimise economic damage for European economies while telling Britain that any talks will only begin on the same terms as the current withdrawal treaty. Mr Michel will begin chairing councils of EU leaders in December, a moment that could be vital in how a no deal Brexit unfolds or if a new prime minister has problems ratifying an amended withdrawal agreement.” (link, paywalled)
The Times, like all Remainers, of course omits to mention that, if the new PM does nothing, we’re out at 11pm on Halloween anyway. So ‘negotiations’ will have to take place before that date, as BoJo-Hunt have indicated.
It remains to be seen if Mr Selmayr will be involved – his fate is by no means secure, but it’s nice to catch out the Times in contradicting itself in regard to Mr Selmayr (see above). For some funny, inexplicable reason, many other EU members are against a EU Leadership top-heavy with Germans …!
In the following paragraphs we can discern why our Remainers are so scared of a No Deal Brexit:
“Both Ms Von der Leyen and Mr Michel are staunch defenders of the withdrawal treaty […] with a huge interest in preserving integrity of the single market. Both have told industry in their respective countries […] to be prepared for Britain leaving without a deal. In a jibe clearly aimed at Mr Johnson, Ms Von der Leyen, the incoming European Commission president, has told German bosses that Brexit, especially without a deal, will reveal the “burst bubble of hollow promises . . . inflated by populists”. Mr Michel […] sees no deal as a reset for talks, one that will leave the EU holding the best hand of cards. “When you push that Brexit button, there are consequences, there is a bill to pay,” he has warned.” (link, paywalled)
There you have it: it’s fear, plain fear. Our Remainers firmly believe that we ‘Little Englanders’ cannot stand against the might of the EU, especially not when talks inevitably start after we have left with that ‘No Deal’.
Our Remainers believe everything the EU says and believe nothing our own competent civil servants say about our preparedness. If I were Sir Mark Sedwill I’d be a bit cross with the Remainers!
So – is a GE before the 31st of October the only way out for both Remainers and Leavers, given this new EU set-up? Well, perhaps – but then again, the latest YouGov poll for the Times has the Tories and TBP on top, with 24% and 23%, while Corbyn’s Labour lingers in fourth place with 18%, the LibDems having overtaken them with 20% (link). These are not good numbers for any LibLabCon leader to even think about a GE.
We’ll have to see how events play out on Monday 15th July. Meanwhile, enjoy the summer, forget the breathless yapping of the MSM, but never forget to