And here it is: the little piece of paper, declaring ‘peace in our EU time’, negotiated at the last minute by our modern Chamberlain, Ms May, and the modern dictator of the EU, M Juncker …
And here it is: the EU, as always, does some sort of deal when it’s five minutes to midnight. One might ask, in the voice of a strict teacher: why haven’t you done this earlier? But that would miss the point: last-minute deals with the EU mean the EU wins because everybody agrees to what is bovine excrement just to make it stop. And it’s definitely not ‘better late than never’ …
And here it is: the MSM in full ‘she done it’ mode – check out the headlines – with the Remain Tories thinking this’ll get May’s atrocious WA through the HoC later today. The horsetrading and arm-twisting en coulisse this morning will be epic.
So – will it work?
Let’s leave the triumphant or gloomy tweets and proclamations from the usual suspects aside for the time being, and concentrate on the little remarks and reports sprinkled throughout the texts which show what has really been going on and what we ought to make of this last-minute ‘breakthrough’.
Let’s start with this remarkable crumb of information: to achieve this ‘legally binding’ document, Ms May went to Brussels accompanied not by the Attorney General, but by Mr Olly Robbins:
“Insiders said that her government started the day in Downing Street “in a panic” with a “blank piece of paper”, unsure where the Brexit negotiations would end up. Olly Robbins, her Brexit negotiator, rather than Geoffrey Cox, the attorney-general, was in Brussels trying to salvage a deal. After months of pressure from Brexiteers to replace negotiating officials with politicians, it appeared an odd tactic.”(paywalled link, my bold)
No, that’s not odd, it is in fact indicative of what we can expect from that ‘agreement’. The first press statements of MPs show that it may not be quite the plain sailing Ms May was wishing for. Some think it’s sufficient, others think it’s a ‘step in the right direction’, e.g. the now firmly fence-sitting JRM, others think it’s not sufficient, e.g. Mr Steve Baker and Mr Nigel Dodds, DUP. The ERG will wait for the verdict of the “Star Chamber’:
“A group of eight Tory and DUP MPs, led by Sir Bill Cash, is set to meet today to pick over the legal meaning of the documents released overnight. One member of the ERG said that he felt that nothing had changed but that it was “all about the verdict of the star chamber” — the group of eight.” (paywalled link).
Mr Corbyn will advise Labour to vote against the ‘deal’ because ‘nothing has changed’.
Ms May indulged in some fluffy but meaningless words at her press conference last evening, invoking what The Queen said:
“MPs were clear that legal changes were needed to the backstop. Today we have secured legal changes. Now is the time to come together, to back this improved Brexit deal, and to deliver on the instruction of the British people,” (paywalled link)
Fluff and more fluff! Smoke, mirrors and sound and fury signifying nothing.
So what is in this fabulous ‘declaration’?
Scroll down here for a basic summary. Here is the official text, in dense, EU legalese. And here is the text presented to the HoC on which the MPs are going to have to vote later today. This snippet from Ms May’s statement yesterday is important:
“Third, alongside the joint instrument on the Withdrawal Agreement, the United Kingdom Government will make a Unilateral Declaration that if the backstop comes into use and discussions on our future relationship break down so that there is no prospect of subsequent agreement, it is the position of the United Kingdom that there would be nothing to prevent the UK instigating measures that would ultimately dis-apply the backstop. Unilateral Declarations are commonly used by states alongside the ratification of treaties. The Attorney General will set out in legal analysis the meaning of the joint instrument and unilateral declaration to Parliament. Tomorrow the House of Commons will debate the improved deal that these legal changes have created. I will speak in more detail about them when I open that debate. (link, my bold)
“Dis-apply” the backstop? Gawd …
I’m not a lawyer, but even I can see the glaring trap in this last-minute-agreement. First of all, the EU ‘assurance’ is based on a letter from Tusk and Juncker of January this year, now made ‘legally binding’ – how, I don’t know but am sure the legal bigwigs will explain later today.
Why that letter couldn’t be made legally binding then – good question! We’re of course meant to forget all the nastiness that had come out of the EU in the meantime … and we are meant to believe that now the EU will play nicely. Of course they will! After all, they want to ‘find a solution’ by December 2020 …
And what about this ‘unilateral declaration with legal status’:
“Britain has put forward a “unilateral declaration” with legal status in international law emphasising the temporary nature of the backstop. This would clarify that Britain believes there is nothing in the Brexit deal to stop it seeking to exit the backstop if the EU fails to live up to its commitments to find a replacement.” (paywalled link)
Again, I am not a lawyer, but to me this reads fishy in the extreme. Does anybody here really believe that a May government will ‘exit the backstop’? Lawyers will have a field day …
Note well that this tawdry spectacle is meant to hide the enormous flaws in the original WA. It is meant to get that abomination through the HoC and save Ms May’s hide. It is BRINO, with a few new bows and flowers attached to it. It is nothing but the prettification of the great Brexit Betrayal.
And let’s not forget that Juncker will be gone come the new EU Parliament, with Herr Selmayr taking over. He’s been keeping in the background, but came out with this statement which shows precisely the timetable the EU is working towards:
“During a briefing to European ambassadors yesterday he said that an extension would have to be a “one-off” and could be short if Theresa May gets the withdrawal agreement through the Commons, or long enough for UK elections and a new government” if she fails. […] He believes that a British election or referendum is the most likely outcome but not until after the summer.” (paywalled source)
That, dear friends, shows me two things:
1. this surrender paper is nothing but a ploy by the EU to get the WA BRINO settled.
2. If that doesn’t work, then they expect a GE with all that entails, e.g. a Corbyn government and a second referendum – just as Tony Blair advised M Macron would happen if the EU were to sit tight.
So – prepare for a long session this afternoon, watching proceedings and the vote in the HoC. Expect the worst. We’ll keep you updated.
17 days to Brexit – or will it be BRINO?
KBO!
Now Mays non deal is no longer, what actually is the mythical deal that “we cannot leave without a deal” obfuscators require?
Has anyone any knowledge on the terms of a so called acceptable deal? if so has it been publicised / published ? Has anyone actually asked the question?
The all important deal is strangely never outlined by its most prominent supporters. We are constantly reminded it will protect jobs, worried communities and yooman rights. Suffice to say it is code for Remain.
i supported Thomas’ petition some days ago but when I tried to sign up for it the same notice came up – “only six people have signed. Please try later”
I think petitions are pretty useless – so are marches also. At least one million went on our anti hunting bill march – the BBC lied and called it half a million – but the Gov took no notice, as usual.
Civil disobedience and withdrawal of votes is the only thing they take notice of.
THE POINT HAS BEEN MISSED ! ….. Chamberlain was a fool but also a Gentleman, who looked upon other National Leaders as also being Gentlemen. – It took very little time for Germany’s National Socialist leader, Hitler, to be seen for what he was, and for a value to be placed upon Hitler’s signature. – Valueless, and therefore the mark of a gutter-snipe that had risen to high office ! ….. Mrs May is also a fool, but no Lady. Within this Nation’s wish to leave the EU, we see our PM as a total supplicant to the EU, and an embarrassment to our Nation. She was ‘armed’ with 17.4 million votes from the British People, and yet she chose to grovel in front of a bunch of unelected European nonentities ! ….. In my judgement, there is no similarity to Chamberlain. He was head and shoulders above Mrs May, and was only ‘armed’ with good wishes and hope from the British People ! ….. We really must get rid of our Political Minnows. – This time we are without a character like Churchill, but surely within the minds of the most ignorant voter, we must be able to elect a better Office Holder than Mrs May from out of the Government’s rabble of a Party ! Don’t look at the Opposition Parties for assistance in this. They are just a different colour of rabble ! ….. A DISGUSTED ENGLISHMAN !
Chamberlain has been badly mauled by history but in reality he was widely supported at the time by a parliament and people who had the horrors of WWI in living , recent memory. Churchill said this in his eulogy to Chamberlain in the HoC when he died.
//Whatever else history may or may not say about these terrible, tremendous years, we can be sure that Neville Chamberlain acted with perfect sincerity according to his lights and strove to the utmost of his capacity and authority, which were powerful, to save the world from the awful, devastating struggle in which we are now engaged. This alone will stand him in good stead as far as what is called the verdict of history is concerned. ///
I’m afraid Mrs May will receive few if any plaudits.
Well said Mike.
More FYI – the text of the verdict of the “Star Chamber”:
https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2019/03/the-panel-of-pro-brexit-lawyers-verdict-full-text.html
One thing is evident to me and that is a tipping point has been reached with the British electorate. Many who voted Remain have now had enough, and events this year have exposed the sneering, contemptible and bullying attitude of EU officials to say nothing of the complete idiocy of the politicians behaviour. This hardly inspires confidence from even the most affected by Project Fear Mk I and II. Whatever this Government does now it is too late, that tipping point will escalate and many of those politicians can probably say goodbye to their lucrative jobs on the basis of incompetence, corruption and neglect.
It is always important in my opinion to forward plan. In the event that our illustrious MPs manage to spoil Brexit on the 29th March then there are a number of things that need to be sourced in vast numbers.
• Phrygian caps. These are also called Liberty caps serving as a symbol of freemen in Roman times. The cap was also symbolic in the French Revolution. This could be sourced outside the UK but would surely be no problem to produce a few million using modern technology in our capitalist environment.
• Yellow vests. Again symbolic and should be no problem sourcing although, as with the caps, volumes could create delayed lead times.
• La Guillotine. Not quite so easy and will probably have to be sourced in France, thus cementing Anglo-French Trade relations for future posterity. Having said that we will probably only want about a hundred or so, if we keep them busy.
What is important and must happen regardless of the outcome s over the next week is the return of accountability to our Democracy. The laws of this country especially those that might exist in relation to treasonous acts should be applied to Parliamentarians and Civil Servants retrospectively and posthumously. This sounds harsh but examples must be made of those who have tried to sink our Sovereignty, Law making ability, Independence, Economy, Freedom, self-determination and our identity. We can start with Edward Heath who is recorded admitting to having lied to Parliament and the British people.
Seriously though these disgraceful acts cannot be forgotten.
Your graphic on this article is very apt and it doesn’t take a genius to make the comparison of capitulation.
“La Guillotine”; an easy enough device to fabricate but the gibbet is even easier and substitutes abound.
One should be careful of invoking the spirit of the French Revolution; soon it consumed at least some of those who had led it and the very proletariat it was supposed to free. The Phrygian cap (sounds profane) are those funny little red caps that look like a ‘dollop’ of something and represent the sun god Mithra (like the sun rays crowning the masonic Statue of Liberty – gifted to America) and like ‘goddess of reason’, a whore installed on the altar of Notre Dame indicate adherence to an anti Christian belief system.
It seems Weishaupt’s Illuminati, the Jacobins, The League of The Just and Marx though The mass slaughter of the 20th Century and The EU, itself and Globalism, etc,etc are all part of the same ends-justifies-the-means system of fronts behind fronts.
Intriguingly, in allegory, the two witnesses of the Book Of Revelation, killed by the Beast (a political power) for 3 1/2 prophetic day-years has been interpreted as the banning of the Bible (Old and New Testament – the 2 witnesses) for 3.5 years during the reign of terror.
Wow! Skip the cap then.
We’ll settle for a UKIP banner and a piece of rope.
No, I want one. Looks like a dollop, yeah?
Eh ???????
FYI – in case you can’t listen to the HoC, here is the text of the letter y Geoffrey Cox:
https://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2019/03/coxs-legal-opinion-full-text.html
He made it clear that the decision to support this is a political one, not a legal one. The Chamber gave a soft moan and ‘aah’ when he said that …
Yes!
In fact, Chamberlain was most likely to be aware of the looming situation and played for time.
Well . Well. No amount of political pressure prevented Sir Geoffrey Cox from carrying out his legal duty to interpret the ‘deal’ ethically and professionally.
He deserves praise for that.
Now it’s down to the DUP and the rebels.
Get the popcorn out.
17 days to Brexit, but only 13 WORKING days and 3 of them are Fridays!
May will be heavily defeated tonight. This will expose her to two things. The first is a no confidence vote which Corbyn could (and should) raise. The second will be that the so called ‘Tory grandees’ will have a word with her and ask her to stand down. Her sanity health and husband may persuade her to do so.
Corbyn probably can’t win the vote (self-interest will pacify even the hardest Tory rebels) but the country is now not being effectively governed. This is a threat to the economy as much as anything else. So I expect the grandees to have their say and their way.
She’ll be gone by noon tomorrow.
The Attorney General says that “the risk remains unchanged and we could still be trapped in the backstop.”
I wonder how much it cost the taxpayer to fly the b*tch out to Strasbourg and back in a private plane just for her to try and stitch us up with this not so cheap stunt?
Maybe we can chip in and buy her a Boeing 737 Max………
“there would be nothing to prevent the UK instigating measures that would ultimately dis-apply the backstop.”
Haha. Yeah, sure. Nothing… except the House of Commons, which, despite all our hopes is still likely to be largely Remainer.
Things could have been worse, we could have LOST the referendum 52/48 – and life would be a misery. If the establishment succeeds in their TREACHERY then we can make their lives a misery with an endless civil war against them and their ‘wisdom’. The results of staying in the EU will become clear in due course and their lies will become more obvious by the day.
An interesting day ahead. Remember that a lot of so-called Brexiteers who sit as MEPs are banking on an extension to Article 50 so they get another 5 years on the EU gravy train.
The concentration on the NI issues is obscuring the dangerous content of the rest of the WA agreement. The deal is still a pile of junk and it needs the DUP, Labour and the few hard-core ERG that have not been bribed or threatened in one way or another to strike it down.
Half -baked deals always fail. Munich failed, leading to WWII. The Irish Free State (Agreement) Act 1922 failed, leading to decades of mayhem and the death of Michael Collins, who negotiated it. Both were compromise agreements, both led to violence
Our politicians (all parties) had better realise this.
There is little more to say until we hear the Attorney General’s statement, in an hour or so. Keir Starmer, an able lawyer, has made it clear that the unilateral element is meaningless, and he’s just stated that Labour will whip against the Government.
It seems perverse that we are now reliant on the LibDems and Labour to stick the knife in and therefore almost certainly trigger an extension that could be years long. Is that better than the WA, the half-baked alternative? It will be for the Paul Nuttalls of this world, who will be popping the champagne corks and raking in the cash for their EU non-jobs. The Farage job at LBC and his position in Brussels will also be quite safe for 5 more years.
That’s showbiz.
Perhaps we should relish the prospect of a second Referendum, the so called “People’s Vote” or a general election as a final means of getting our hard Brexit? I don’t have all the answers, but I do know that it’s the regular British people who will be shafted.
Well one of the documents the Government just published is nearly 300 pages long.
Difficult to see how anyone can apply their mind to its content before this evening’s vote.
It’s a bit like the Chequers meeting where the Cabinet solemnly ‘approved’ the whole Abortion of an Abject Surrender before they had even read it.
One of the shorter documents refers to ‘reducing the risk’ [ of the Backstop needing to be brought into play ].
Well how does ‘reducing’ the risk equate to removing altogether ?
It doesn’t is the answer. The Backstop remains in place. The trap which will ensure that the UK’s ‘negotiators’ surrender yet more and more territory when ‘negotiating’ the supposedly final Agreement.
Fisheries; financial contribs; Freedom of Movement ~ they will all be surrendered permanently, just as they have been for the ‘Implementation’ period.
The United Kingdom Parliament enacting some sort of Crossing Fingers and Hoping Enactment will cut zero ice with any future Court ( the CJEU for example ? yeah they’ll be really impressed ! ) or Tribunal which had to adjudicate on whether the UK had breached the Treaty that May and Robbins have concluded. It’s a meaningless figleaf ~ which barely disguises the obscenity beneath .
I admit I have not read the almost 300 page document but do you really need to when one of the shorter documents itself refers to ‘reducing’ the risk ?
Reducing does not remove the risk.
WTO provisions do.
If you can have a certainty as opposed to a doubt………….why would you choose the doubt ?
I very much look forward to Martin Howe’s assessment. If he provides legal argument disagreeing with my summary above I will be happy to be persuaded.
But I would not trust anything Rumpole Cox comes up with.
Here’s an interesting article by Paul Goodman on Conhome:
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/03/bounced.html
So will we see abstentions this evening – and will the opposition votes be sufficient to scupper this abomination of a WA?
The last time this happened the Monarchy survived but Chamberlain didn’t (politically). I wonder what will happen this time.
Think what would happen if Theresa May gets this withdrawal agreement through.
I’ve no doubt that May is on her way out whatever happens, but like Blair, she’ll queitely become very wealthy and shuffle of for a very comfy retirement and I’m sure her place in the sun is already lined up.
Of course the Tories will be finished, Labour is a mess and even if they win an election they won’t amount to much. Very likely we’ll end up with years of very weak coalition governments made up of the assortment of splinter parties that are forming, we may even get a few UKIPers in there.
The very last thing we’ll have is a government capable of strong leadership and the EU will make sure they fill the power vacuum. We’ll be sucked back into the EU within a few years, never to leave again.
In the meantime we’ll have to continuously help to bail out the unworkable and fraudulent EU economy as it collapses. Ongoing mass immigration will burden our social, health and other services until they collapse. Third world immigration will depress wages as asset prices rise due to continuous money printing.
Your children will be jobless, homeless and live in the gutter as second class citizens in their own native country.
I read today that if all of the Brexiteers in the UK took to the streets in violent riots that It would be a disaster as both the Police and Military are too under resourced to be able to do anything about it.
In view of the future that the evil Theresa May has planned for you, if she gets her agreement through, then do just that and take to the streets. Now is a good time to stock up on yellow vests, steel toecap boots, pick axe handles and any other weapon that you can get your hands on. I’m thinking of joining you too.
“both the Police and Military are too under resourced to be able to do anything about it” Flyer this could also be code for “it will be time to bring in police reinforcements from across the channel”.
There is that of course, I and others have been expecting this. Seventeen point four million people may even be too much for EUROGENDFOR though, even if allowing for the elderly and infirm we can only muster ten million.
Seriously though, I see very difficult times ahead if we allow May to get away with this. This is a well planned coup by the European Union and its Quislings and traitors that have infiltrated and been placed in our government: we’ve been to war for a lot less.
I’m both elderly and infirm, Flyer, but I’ll be there!
A real danger and one we must prepare for whatever their means of transport. Any such invader is a legitimate target.
… and we’ve see how totally violent and out of control they are.
We need the military to take our side; shouldn’t be too difficit to persuade them after the way they have been shat on by government.
Jack – this is a good point, much depends on our military. As I wrote in one of my recent articles, many of our military men are realists, they know what’s going on and I think they have more honour than our low life politicians.
Jack / Flyer
The Oath of Allegiance is clear.
All persons enlisting or commissioning in the British Armed Forces, except Royal Navy Officers, are required to attest to the following oath or equivalent affirmation:
I… swear by Almighty God (do solemnly, and truly declare and affirm) that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, Her Heirs and Successors, and that I will, as in duty bound, honestly and faithfully defend Her Majesty, Her Heirs and Successors, in Person, Crown and Dignity against all enemies, and will observe and obey all orders of Her Majesty, Her Heirs and Successors, and of the (admirals / generals/ air officers) and officers set over me.
Until recently no oath of allegiance was sworn by members of the Royal Navy, which is not maintained under an Act of Parliament but by the royal prerogative. This is still the case for Officers as, by nature of the Navy’s authority deriving from the Crown and not Parliament, the loyalty of Naval Officers to the Sovereign is taken for granted.
Fresh in from BrexitCentral:
“The Speaker John Bercow announced last night that he will allow manuscript amendments to the Government’s motion until 10.30am, with him set to announce his choice of amendments that will be put to the vote when the debate begins at around 12.40pm after the presentation of a Ten Minute Rule Bill (unless there are Urgent Questions of Statements which delay proceedings). Voting on any amendments moved and then the deal itself will begin at 7pm tonight.”
He can’t possibly allow all the Remainers’ motions and ban all the Brexiteers’, can he? He has to offer at least a semblance of impartiality, doesn’t he?
Oily Robbins has a PPE degree from Oxford, Media Studies for poshoes. It shows.
JF
“Philosophy, Politics and Economics (PPE) at Oxford University has traditionally been a degree read by those seeking a career in politics, public life (including senior positions in Her Majesty’s Civil Service) and journalism.”
Presumably no requirement for any real world experience before taking up such positions. Schoolkids given an adults job. No wonder we are in such a mess.
Nothing about this is last-minute. Every step of this Betrayal Dance was carefully choreographed by Mr Robbins long ago, perhaps as long ago as 24 June 2016, although it probably did take him a few days at least to pre-plan it. This is treason.
I submitted this petition to the Parliament’s petition committee, but it has been sitting on, even though the official timeline for publishing it has expired (I wonder why):
“My petition:
Make defying the will of the people in a referendum expressly treason
In 2016, a referendum was held in Britain. Since then, politicians and civil servants of all colours have been doing their best to subvert the will of the people thereby expressed and sell the country into vassalage to a foreign power. I believe this is treason. The law should say so expressly.
I am asking the Parliament to enact legislation which will make denying, defying, obstructing, subverting or sabotaging in any way the will of the people as expressed in a referendum expressly treasonous on a statutory basis.”
While the Traitors Committee sits on the petition, you can support it on https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/244170/sponsors/new?token=2TyTy5267Tez0yRdeYHR. After it has hopefully been published, it will be on https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/244170/ . Do tell the quislings what you think of them.
Or write to members of the petitions committee and tell them what you think.
Helen Jones (Labour Remainer, Chair)
Liz Twist (Labour Remainer)
Daniel Zeichner (Labour Remainer)
Mike Hill (Labour Remainer)
Catherine McKinnell (Labour Remainer)
Martyn Day (SNP Remainer)
Michelle Donelan (Conservative Remainer)
Luke Hall (Conservative Remainer)
Steve Double (Conservative Brexiteer)
Damien Moore (Conservative Brexiteer)
Paul Scully (Conservative Brexiteer)
Well done; let’s hope it succeeds:
“5 people have already supported Tomaz Slivnik’s petition.
We need to check it meets the petition standards before we publish it.
Please try again in a few days.”