Election campaigns’ emerging contours …
The contours of the forthcoming campaign are emerging from the fog. While there are no manifestos as of yet, there are PR ‘news’ of what the various leaders did say or “will say”. You won’t be surprised to hear that officially Brexit is of no concern. According to those who want to rule us this election will be about ‘domestic issues’.
A quick harvest of the headlines shows that Johnson will push ‘green’ policies’ after Brexit’ (here, paywalled here and here), ‘tackling climate change’ provided voters don’t let a Corbyn-Sturgeon government in. Corbyn meanwhile promises to ‘save the NHS’ by spending £6billion more on it than the dastardly Tories – by ‘taxing the rich’ (here). And then there was this:
“[Corbyn] today joked with rowdy photographers that ‘under Socialism you will all cooperate’ as he hit the campaign trail in Blackpool. The Labour leader issued the message as the media jostled for position during a picture opportunity in the seaside resort. […] Despite the light-hearted nature of the jibe, Mr Corbyn was branded ‘sinister’ on social media, with some users suggesting it showed how everyone will have to ‘obey the dear leader’ if Labour wins power in the election.” (link)
It’s good to know that there are at least a few social-media-warriors who seem to have an inkling of what socialism will mean in practice – and it isn’t ‘saving the NHS by taxing the rich’.
Tomorrow is the last day for candidates to hand in their paperwork. It has to be at the local councils by 4pm. In an astonishing piece of over-reach Arron Banks (now a Tory) reportedly told Nigel Farage that he has ‘48 hours to save Brexit’ by withdrawing candidates from Labour-held marginals the Tories say they have to win – see this headline. The broadsheets who haven’t touched Banks with a bargepole have of course picked it up as well – paywalled here, and here’s a quote from the DT with a little sting in the tail:
“Nigel Farage was warned he has “48 hours to save Brexit” as a major donor to the Brexit Party urged him to stand down another 150 candidates in Conservative target seats. Arron Banks told the Telegraph that the Brexit Party leader had to “smash Labour in 40 or so seats where the Tories are nowhere”. […] On Tuesday the Conservatives rebuffed requests by intermediaries acting on behalf of Mr Farage to swap weaker Tory candidates into seats that the party has a realistic chance of winning.” (paywalled link)
Take note: it’s a blatant demand for TBP to support the Tories who won’t even contemplate a Brexit Alliance because for them this election is not about Brexit, it’s about retaining their power.
Perhaps Johnson and his advisers believe they are riding high given the confusing news coming from the LibDems where the candidate poised to take on Johnson in his constituency is standing down (here) while another stands down to give Labour a ‘free run’ (here). The call by David Gauke, arch remained and former Tory Rebel’, to support the Lib-Dems while standing as Independent in his former constituency against his own party also seems negligible:
“The former justice secretary told The Times it would be “no bad thing” if “traditional, long-standing” Tory backers lent their votes to the Liberal Democrats on December 12, but said he had the best chance of denying the Conservatives a victory in his constituency of South West Hertfordshire. […] Mr Gauke backed the Lib Dems elsewhere but could face a challenge from them in the constituency where, as a Tory, he won in 2017 with a majority of 19,550 and 57.9 per cent of the vote.” (link, paywalled)
Perhaps he’ll get his just deserts should a LibDem beat him. All is not well in the Labour Party either. There’s this report which shows that Corbyn doesn’t have his troops under control:
“Corbyn is facing a mounting Brexit rebellion today with more than 100 prospective Labour MPs pledging to back Remain if there is a second referendum even if the party decides to back Leave. The 112 names include dozens who have already been MPs, including ex-ministers Margaret Beckett, Maria Eagle and Ben Bradshaw, plus recent Speaker candidate Chris Bryant. […] Organised by grassroots group Remain Labour, [the pledge] states: ‘Labour is committed to a confirmatory referendum, to give you a final say on Brexit. If elected as your Labour MP, I pledge to campaign to Remain in the EU.’ This could put them on a collision path with party leader Jeremy Corbyn.” (link)
Labour meanwhile has only superficially taken notice of TBP’s retreat from Tory constituencies, but their strategists may well think they can bludgeon TBP in the coming weeks while keeping their own candidates in check, as Asa Bennett in the DT suggests:
“The Brexit Party’s sliding poll rating, with it barely breaking 10 per cent these days, forced Mr Farage to “put country before party” by pulling his troops out of direct confrontation with the Tories. For now, he hopes to save face by coming after Labour and winning a few seats. But his potential to do so may have been blunted by allowing Jeremy Corbyn to dismiss Brexit Party candidates as mere Turquoise Tories. […] But by backing down from fighting the Tories, Mr Farage may have given the Labour leader the defence he needs to help keep his remaining Brexit Party candidates at bay.” (paywalled link)
In summary, there’s Tory hybris: they believe Brexit is done and they’re better off wooing voters as per usual. Labour and LibDems are unclear if they can or ought to commit to a ‘Remain’ Pact while Corbyn campaigns on socialist, ahem: domestic issues. They all give only lip-service to Brexit.
We, the voters, are just pawns: numbers in the statistics of the establishment parties’ election strategists. They think that we can easily be manipulated according to ancient campaign rules: shout and promise to give them what they want while brushing their real concerns under the carpet. Making Brexit a non-issue is the theme.
For those strategists the few ‘rebels’, be they Remain MPs in Labour with their ‘Remain Pledge’, be they the even fewer LibDems going for a local, unilateral ‘Remain Alliance’, are apparently negligible. Even less interesting for those strategists are the noises from Tory arch remainers who are going to stand as Independents.
Should things go badly they already have their ready-made scape goat: TBP. Leave voters who were supporting them? Where can they go except back to LibLabCon! Stay at home, as one of TBP’s MEPs wailed yesterday? Don’t they want to save the NHS or ‘tackle’ climate change? The historian Robert Tombs warns them in the DT:
“Many politicians and commentators are trying to minimise the importance of next month’s vote, claiming that it is about all sorts of other things than Brexit, supposedly more important to “ordinary people”. I doubt most of the electorate will be convinced. The issue that will decide the outcome is Brexit, and Brexit will show whether we are a true or a sham democracy.” (paywalled link)
Just so! We’ll give that important article the ‘FROM BEHIND THE PAYWALL” treatment later this morning. Meanwhile, the establishment – parties and MSM – prepare to fight this GE as they’ve always done, by going for the predictable ‘domestic’ issues, trying to dazzle us with huge amounts of bovine excrement.
They assume that we’re so tired that we’ll just forget about our country’s biggest democratic decision. After all, there’ll be either LINO or there’ll be a 2nd referendum – what more could we possibly want when the NHS needs saving and when the ‘climate crisis’ needs tackling!
The establishment parties have torn up the contract between us voters and themselves. It can no longer be ‘business as usual’. Frightening us with a hung parliament and a Corbyn-Sturgeon government won’t work. Surely the mighty mind of a JRM can tie up such hung parliament in knots! Meanwhile, they all get what they really really want: no Brexit.
Let’s not reward them. Let’s not honour them with our votes. Let’s use these next four weeks to make sure they know what’s coming, that ‘business as usual’ won’t happen, that we can and will ‘split the Tory vote’ all by ourselves, even if it means voting for the Monster Raving Loony Party where there’s no firm Brexit candidate.
KBO!
So finally we realise the faux Leave EU movement is actually more interested in a clear Tory majority than a genuine Brexit with TBP holding the balance of power in the House of Liats.
Hope farage tells them to foxtrot osca . .No wonder he doesn’t want to stand.
The thing I find most disappointing is the lack of recognition that the tory party is the most pro EU of the lot. They just hide it better.
“It is as well to state this at the outset – no government dependent on a democratic vote could possibly agree in advance to the sacrifices which any adequate plan for European Union must involve. The people must be led slowly and unconsciously into the abandonment of their traditional economic defences……. No satisfactory economic plan for Europe can be devised without sacrifice of sovereignty by the nations concerned.” – Peter Thorneycroft, former Tory MP June 1947 (Posts held; Chancellor of the Exchequer, Chief Whip, Secretary of State for Defence, Party Chairman)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thorneycroft
Committment to the European project is in the Tory Party DNA. They have been lying through their teeth for the last 80 years and it is highly unlikely they are going to stop now.
Tombs tome (sorry) ‘The English and their History’ is excellent and I have always enjoyed reading his articles. Sad to see the headline over his article today: “This Brexit election will decide if we can call ourselves a true democracy.”
It isn’t really an election (‘ELINO’?); the establishment has managed to manufacture its second referendum in all but name. And they have got the question that Remainers wanted all along, too: Remain or BRINO. Brexit is not an option. I am surprised the good Prof has not read the Treaty small print, of which he, of all people, should recognise the outcome.
People’s terror of a Marxist regime will deliver us into permanent servitude to an anti-democratic totalitarian state. What irony.
Too true Phil. LEAVE is no longer on the table. All we’re left with is REMAIN or the Boris Dead Cat Deal. The only positive side to this shameful debacle is that it has shown for sure that our so-called Democracy has been reduced to an illusory sham, and also that the Ballot Box changes nothing.
Vote to punish.
JF
Why on earth is TBP not standing against Tory MPs who are remainers in leave voting constituencies? I am baffled. Excellent news that David Kurten is standing as UKIP PPC in Bognor Regis and Littlehampton.The only Brexiteer standing against Nick Gibb I believe.
Because a pact with the Cons would enable Labour to portray TBP as merely a branch of the party that has lied to and exploited the British people since WWII.
The North will never vote Tory. It will never vote for those who march in step with the Tories.
JF
Bit torn here. There will be no Brexit of any description if Lab/Lib/SNP get a majority and the country will plummet into even more ruin than under the fake Conservatives. There is no doubt that the presence of a BXP candidate in key marginals will hand the seat to Labour or LibDem. I would much rather Farage had stood down candidates in all seat where the incumbent or likely winner is a proven leaver. This would not be anywhere near 317 Tory seats. This would put the impetus on the rival party to stand a credible leaver to avoid a BXP challenger. As my MP is a Remainer (though not a remoaner) in a safe Tory seat if there is no alternative as usual eg SDP, Ukip,For Britain I will turn out but spoil my paper.
Is this the latest ‘dead cat on the table’ a regional newspaper is carrying a headline story that a ‘leaked report’ shown to the The Times newspaper states that the HS2 project is to go ahead despite the estimated cost now reaching £88 billion.
As far as the Farage decision is concerned I find myself being as disappointed as many others, but surely that’s what leadership is all about anyone can lead when all are agreed, but leaders have to make unpopular decisions , history is full of leaders who failed because they failed to adjust their plans or strategies and there is still a long way to go before the election the ramblings threats and rubbish being reported by the MSM should surely send a warning to voters about the intentions and abilities of the ‘big three’.
Norman! Super simple analysis. Who could imagine Nigel suddenly becoming a craven coward? Inconceivable to my mind.
He has spent almost half of his entire life dedicated, through thick and thin- almost single-handedly – to get us out of Europe. Now a few uninformed, political-party-hoppers are denigrating him out of hand – unable to get to grips with the massive complications of politics, more especially in today’s turbulent and torrid atmosphere – which will decide our future for probably the next century.
I have no doubt that the six hundred odd potential candidates were kept fully up to date and informed as to the machinations which needed to be employed, more especially since they must be realists, otherwise they ought not be in that dirty business.
Who would I rather trust to be leading me into a political scenario? Bumbling Boris? The Stubble?
Who would I rather have on my side in a Beau Brummell contest? And who do I think would be most likely to stick to his word and shoot from the hip? Who would I back in a head-to-head TV encounter?
No contest…….Nigel (the grin) Farage of course. Cast your vote wisely, please.