There are two main news items this morning – one ‘foreign’, one ‘home news’. The ‘foreign  news’ is that Putin ‘has gone and done it’, the other is Johnson’s latest ‘freedom day’ declaration, according to which all covid restrictions will be lifted from Thursday this week.

Not being gifted with the gift of prophecy I cannot predict how events will develop during the day in regard to Russia and Ukraine, but as a keen observer of political machinations in Whitehall and government as ‘presented’ in the MSM, through “sources”, allow me to point out a few, well, let’s say: anomalies.

We remember that US intelligence services and indeed the US president have been ‘predicting’ the day when Putin will invade Ukraine for a few weeks now. There were maps and graphs all over the MSM describing precisely how and what Putin would act. Ukrainian politicians were jumping up and down and demanding immediate action or at least more armament from ‘Teh West’ – since December last year.

Western politicians were flitting about or making important phone calls, especially in the last two weeks – from Johnson and Macron to the German new Chancellor Scholz to various foreign secretaries, two of whom are female and reasonably new in their job: the German Ms Baerbock of the German Green Party who got her post after the German GE in September last year, and our Ms Liz Truss who got her job after Johnson’s cabinet reshuffle, also in September 2021.

For weeks our and the international MSM were full of reports of politicians threatening sanctions against Russia, not least by the EU’s Ms vdL who said that the EU was ready for ‘unprecedented sanctions’.

And now there’s this …: in a first step last evening Putin recognised the two Ukrainian provinces Donetz and Luhansk as independent republics (link). In a second step Putin last night ordered troops into those republics (link, paywalled). He clearly hasn’t read the playbook prepared for him by Washington. He even got the day wrong: this was meant to happen on Wednesday!

So now what? Didn’t the much vaunted intelligence services foresee that Putin might do precisely this: recognise those two regions where civil war between western Ukrainians and the separatist forces has been going on for years? Of course, we are totally against separatists demanding self-determination, such as Catalunya a few years ago. It was different when the West created a new statelet, Kosovo, from a separatist province of Serbia.

All this begs the question: what were all those fabulous leaders doing in the years this conflict has been going on? What were they doing about demanding the Ukrainian governments adhere and implement the Minsk II Protocol? Moreover, don’t the statutes of NATO prohibit the admission of states where civil unrest or war is taking place? I also remember the various reports that the USA was supporting Ukraine in their bid for EU and NATO membership because they were hoping to take over the harbour at Sevastopol for the US Navy.

One might assume that the West was not interested in a solution because it was a festering thorn in Putin’s flesh, that the covert and now overt aim was and is to get rid of Putin and diminish Russia’s power as much as possible. Also, sanctions were imposed on Russia in 2014 when Putin took back the Crimea. And what are the reactions of ‘Teh West’ now? See this:

“The US plans sanctions against anyone who trades with the separatists in Dontesk and Luhansk, the White House said. Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said on Monday that the US would also announce “additional measures related to today’s blatant violation of Russia’s international commitments”. (paywalled link)

Perhaps I’m naive when I think that ‘international’ means that other nations beside Russia are involved. What have they been doing to solve this Ukrainian crisis except talk up a war with Russia? Haven’t their inactions helped these ‘blatant violations’ by not insisting Ukraine fulfil their obligations? As for those packages – crikey:

However, it was not clear whether that would include the “devastating” package of sanctions Joe Biden has promised if Russia actually invades. The EU has agreed a “limited” package of sanctions that will target those “responsible” for the recognition of the separatist regions, said Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister.” (paywalled link)

Ahem. Have or haven’t all those civil serpents in the various departments – USA, EU, UK, no matter – worked out a sanctions plan? What were they doing? Did they think that somehow sending Truss to Moscow would make Putin quail? Did they think that announcements by Ms vdL, by Biden, would make Putin shake in his boots? Did they in fact do nothing at all except blowing hot air and posturing? Btw – what, if anything, is actually produced in those two regions where civil war has been going on for eight years? 

Never mind, those sanctions will be terrible, we’re told, and the UK ‘will join the US’ in this endeavour (link). Have a heart for Johnson who will chair a Cobra meeting at 6.30am this morning (link). It will be interesting, but don’t expect any words being said about why Ukraine wasn’t and isn’t held to account for fomenting civil war in those regions. Prohibiting the use of and teaching of the Russian language in those regions where most people are Russians anyway must now be internationally acceptable … 

And so to the scrapping of all covid restrictions. We’re told that Johnson and Sunak ‘ganged up’ on Javid who couldn’t even prevent keeping the free distribution of covid tests. From April 1st people except the very elderly will have to pay for those tests themselves with a pack of lateral flow tests costing £20 (link, paywalled).

One wonders if all those businesses who insist on daily tests will now scrap that rule or if they’ll pay for those tests themselves. One wonders if NHS hospitals will ‘allow’ patients to enter without tests. One wonders if our own ‘separatist’, ‘breakaway’ regions and their tinpot dictators Sturgeon and Dripford, will follow England.

One wonders if Johnson now regards himself as ‘secure’ because he’s been posturing on the international stage where nobody asked about Partygate. Playing with war and peace, with economic sanctions which might look good in the international press but which will have economic consequences which are necessarily incalculable, is a very heady addictive drug. 

Back ‘on the ground’ outside the Westminster Village, we’re still facing the rise in NI contributions and fuel costs. We’re still facing inflation and we’re still facing the fall-out of two years of covid restrictions. Meanwhile, the Canadian government has agreed to keep the ‘emergency’ measures destroying democracy in place for another 30 days. Well, the coalition didn’t want to face a new GE, so they supported Trudeau who threatened he’d resign if they didn’t support him (paywalled here). 

Why would we care about all that, from destroyed economies to destroyed democracies! that when we can finally have a ‘little local war’ in Europe – a ‘little war’ which might get rid of Putin, something the Washington Swamp has been working for ever since he came to power in 2000.

Above all – let’s not mention China with one word. You might like to cast your eyes over this article published by the Gatestone Institute, about Chinese influence in the USA. Now that’s something we should care about and be scared of. Time to tighten our belts – not just for the coming international bumpy ride but in preparation for our own depleting home finances.

But then again, we were told, were we not, that we’ll be poor but happy after that ‘great reset’ …