In this morning’s ‘Daily Betrayal’ column I mentioned that Sir Mark Sedwill had reappeared, with an opinion piece in The Times. I announced that his piece would receive our ‘From Behind the Paywall’ treatment, not least because his voice is the voice of the Whitehall establishment as we know to our deep regret, remembering the Brexit negotiations under his supervision. 

When one looks at his official CV, published on the government website (link) one finds some gems which show that he’s not the innocent and ever so slightly ignorant bystander, judging nevertheless from his great height as former government security adviser and Cabinet secretary, i.e. the Mandarin of Mandarins. Prior to these posts he was

“FCO Political Director (2012-13), NATO Senior Civilian Representative in Afghanistan (2010-11), HM Ambassador to Afghanistan (2009-10) and Director of UKvisas (2006-8). He joined the Foreign & Commonwealth Office in 1989, serving in Egypt, Iraq, Cyprus and Pakistan.” (link)

He was involved with affairs in Afghanistan during the height of the fighting. Before that, he had experienced conditions in various islamic countries. Clearly, he must have known how those states functioned, he must have had some inkling about the situation of women in those places. Moreover, he must have had knowledge of the undertakings of the NATO allies, creating, equipping and training that Afghan Army which now downed their weapons in the face of the Taliban advance. He surely must have been aware of the utter corruption which went on in that Army and in the Afghan government. Did he by any chance inform and advise Ms May’s successor, the current PM, about following Biden’s withdrawal policy?

Should we regard his article in The Times as the ‘advice’ he is proffering to BJ – or is it a clever attempt to divert attention from what he and his colleagues said to the PMs over ten years ago? Is it an attempt to place blame on us, disguised by crocodile tears?

He begins with the now common cry about ‘humiliation’. Why he describes the Afghan people as ‘fearful’ when they’re in fact acknowledged throughout history as the most fearsome fighters – well, that’s due to his policial agenda:

“The 20th anniversary of 9/11 will see a Taliban government back in power. Even if their assurances are real and Afghans can work out a settlement which avoids the atrocities of the 1990s civil war and the Taliban’s first regime, it is a humiliating moment for the United States and Nato. The consequences will be severe.

The Afghan people are fearful, especially those, including women, who have benefited from the economic and social progress of the past 20 years. Extremists everywhere, quieter since the ending of Islamic State, will be emboldened and the threat of terrorism, whether inspired by the Taliban victory or directed from ungoverned space in Afghanistan, will rise. Western credibility is badly damaged as our authoritarian opponents assert they have the strategic patience we lack. That’s the situation to which we must now respond.” (link, paywalled)

Is it too harsh to say that Mr Sedwill believes that “we” must respond because “we” were humiliated? A ‘humiliation’ which none of the NATO leaders and politicians he knows so well actually foresaw? Never mind asking about the apparent failure of the CIA or MI6 to warn of this Taliban triumph – as security adviser Mr Sedwill is going to do his best to deflect questions we might rightfully ask about those! Next, the ‘moral response’ according to Sedwill:

“First, we should put together a major humanitarian effort to support the Afghan people and mitigate a refugee crisis. As well as honouring our commitments to the Afghans who worked and fought alongside us, we should provide those many more who trusted our commitment to a brighter future for their country with an alternative to living under the Taliban or in a refugee camp. That will take concerted effort, considerable aid resources and commitments to Afghanistan’s neighbours from the 50-plus Nato and allied countries who responded after 9/11. This is a moment when the moral case for humanitarian aid and our security interests align. If the US won’t lead, the UK, as holder of the G7 presidency, should.” (link, paywalled)

Ah – it’s now about providing ‘humanitarian aid’, and “we” must do it if Biden’s administration doesn’t. Note also  that Sedwill expands this aid programme to all neighbouring states – such as Pakistan, owner of  nuclear weapons. More:

“Second, through the UN security council, we should agree with China, Russia and Afghanistan’s neighbours the behaviour we can tolerate from a Taliban regime. Sadly, that will not much affect the way they run Afghanistan, but there is a common interest in preventing terrorist and narcotics threats re-emerging. Swallow hard: incentives — political recognition and economic development — as well as the sanction of targeted military action will be part of the package.” (link, paywalled)

Now wait a minute: aren’t Russia and China our enemies? And Sedwill, the former security adviser, expects us to cooperate with them to keep the Taliban terrorist threat down? Moreover – “we” must be willing to pay for this, on top of the covid debts and the green cr*ppery BJ is proposing to inflict on us? Seriously? More:

“Third, we must draw the right strategic conclusions. The world is a more dangerous place today. While many will be tempted, we cannot protect our national security, global interests or democratic values by pulling up the drawbridge, hunkering down and hoping the storm will pass.

Nato must rebuild the political and practical capability to intervene when necessary, with humility and stoicism, avoiding the overreach and impatience which proved fatal to the Afghan campaign. And we must find a way to reaffirm to our allies and partners worldwide that we have the grit to defend their security, our interests and common values.” (link, paywalled)

Ah – here’s his old anti-Brexit mantra: we’re weak and must work with everybody, we cannot afford to stand alone – but at the same time we must be humble even while showing ‘grit’. at the same time. Why he now describes the  twenty years in Afghanistan as being ‘impatient’ is his secret. Did he advise the UK government to be patient and not overreach when he was in his posts in Afghanistan? Note how cleverly he deflects from his own work during all those years by using cloudy, heart-throbbing language!

Behind more nebulous language his concluding paragraph gives us a glimpse of ‘thinking in high places’, the places the Sedwills of this world inhabit, the places from which ‘guidance’ will flow to the government:

“This is a sad moment. But whether it is a turning point in the era of strategic competition is yet to be determined. We must recommit to the Afghan people, set credible boundaries to Taliban behaviour and police them, and reassure our unsettled allies and partners. Perhaps then this need not become a strategic and permanent reversal.” (link, paywalled)

‘Police boundaries’ which “we” will set for the Taliban? Isn’t that akin to ‘let’s prepare to go back in with boots on the ground’? Using the word ‘strategic’ twice is poppycock because he must surely know of the influence China is now going to exert – for fluff’s sake even I who never was a NATO adviser nor a security adviser can see that!

If this is the ‘advice’ this Mandarin of Mandarins used to give to his superiors and the previous PM then no wonder that both we ourselves and Afghanistan are in the horrible situation we find ourselves in!