A good deal? Really?
I read with huge amazement the article written by Martin Howe QC in the DT. He gives the game away in the title: “No, Mr Farage, Boris Johnson’s deal is not “Brexit In Name Only” (paywalled link). He lines up arguments why Johnson’s deal is not BRINO and asks Nigel Farage to ‘accept reality’. The whole article documents that Mr Howe, for whom I have had quite a lot of respect, has now adapted his stance for one reason only: to get Johnson back into No 10, an aim to which all must bow. Here are the first paragraphs:
“Nigel Farage has launched his Brexit party to fight in all constituencies in Great Britain because, he claims, Boris Johnson’s deal with the EU is “Brexit In Name Only” (BRINO).
I have been one of the fiercest and most persistent critics of Theresa May’s deal, based on detailed study of its 585 pages of Articles, Protocols and Annexes. It was undoubtedly BRINO. It would have destroyed all the key benefits of Brexit by subjecting us for the long term — and without a veto or vote, or an exit clause — to EU laws over wide areas, and ended any realistic possibility of the UK forging a future independent trade policy.
If Boris Johnson’s deal were still BRINO, then I would unhesitatingly say so. But it is not.
First, the Northern Ireland backstop Protocol in the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) has been modified to remove Great Britain from being locked into a vassal-state customs union with the EU until the EU chooses to release us.
Secondly, a word-for-word comparison of the Political Declaration (PD) which sets out the future EU-UK relationship with its previous Theresa May version reveals that it has been amended in vital respects. The PD is important because it is linked to a legal obligation on both parties to use “best endeavours in good faith” to negotiate an agreement in line with its principles.
The PD as amended now clearly foreshadows a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU and not a customs union. The difference is vital because an FTA, unlike a customs union, allows us to set our own tariffs with third countries and to operate our own independent trade policy.
Obligations in the PD for the UK to align our future rules to EU rules have been deleted, and any alignment will be optional. The so-called “level playing field” commitments in the PD have been changed. The previous commitment to shadow the EU rules on competition and state aids in Theresa May’s WA has been replaced with a more open ended commitment not to distort competition similar to that in many FTAs.” (paywalled link)
So that’s all good then, is it? Compare and contrast these paragraphs with these which Martin Howe wrote in ‘Lawyers for Britain’:
“The second way to measure whether or not it is a good deal is to test it against the alternative, which is not to have a withdrawal agreement under Article 50 at all, and instead to negotiate our future relationship with the EU after exit. Contrary to some of the misleading terrors being put about regarding a “no deal” exit, there is no legal requirement to have a withdrawal agreement in order to leave the EU, nor does not having a pre-exit agreement prevent immediate negotiations on our future relationship, coupled with short term bridging arrangements to keep trade flowing while talks take place.
On this test, and despite the marked improvements over the disastrous TM deal, the revised deal is still overall a bad deal. It lands us unconditionally with huge financial obligations for nothing concrete in return, beyond the opportunity to negotiate a trade deal which we would be able to negotiate anyway. A UK-EU FTA is one-sidedly beneficial to the EU, given the UK’s huge importation of goods from the EU concentrated in high tariff sectors such as agriculture, cars and clothing. […]
Of more concern are the longer term negatives which remain in the WA such as saddling ourselves with long term ECJ jurisdiction. I predict that we will have bitter cause to regret such concessions in future years as unpredictable and activist judgments come out from the ECJ, which the UK and our Parliament will have no choice but to obey.” (link)
When you pay attention to that last paragraph, you wonder how and why Mr Howe QC can come up with this:
“There are still serious problems left in the deal, which are the residue of Theresa May’s appalling negotiations. But they do not make the deal BRINO and do not stop us achieving the fundamental objective of Brexit which is to restore our independence and sovereignty over our laws, borders, money and international trade.” (paywalled link)
Suddenly, being under the jurisdiction of the ECJ with all that entails is negligible? Just because the PM has managed to negotiate ‘a better deal’ than Ms May, and just because there’s now a GE to fight, we should overlook this vital point – a point which was one of the main reasons so many fo us voted to Leave – and swallow this toad of a ‘deal’ which for the same reasons we mustn’t call BRINO? All right Mr Howe QC, I’ll not call it BRINO, I’ll call it “LINO” instead: Leave In Name Only. As for his ‘advice’ to Nigel Farage:
“But we must deal with the world as it is rather than the world as we would like it to be. This is something that Nigel Farage should bear in mind now. Nigel, you have spent a long time fighting the EU as a guerilla in the mountains. It is now time for you and your Party to come down from the mountains and lend your strength to Boris’s Conservative army to bring us together to ultimate victory in this war for our freedom.” (paywalled link)
For goodness’ sake! TBP and Nigel Farage ought to give up their stance and jump on Johnson’s bandwagon because “the reality”? Even though Mr Howe had this to say in his article in ‘Lawyers for Britain:
“But even if the deal is bad, and is worse than a no deal alternative, is it tolerable, in order to prevent Brexit being de-railed altogether? This question is more political than legal. […] Those changes [in Johnson’s Deal] greatly transform the negotiating dynamics for the long term relationship with the EU. The UK will have a real ability to walk away if the terms are unacceptable, which would be a powerful lever in the hands of a Johnson majority government determined to use it.” (link)
Ah – but we’ve read in the meantime that this ‘walking away’, i.e. the possibility of ‘No Deal’, is going to be taken off the table in the Tory Manifesto … so then what?
We’re being told to trust Johnson because he got a somewhat better deal that Ms May. This is the reality Nigel and TBP must acknowledge and stand down to support Johnson?
Well, Mr Howe should also get out more and ponder why so many people, Tories, former Tories and Leavers generally say ‘Never trust a Tory’ …
Thanks Viv.
I now understand why Martin Howe QC never replied to my warnings about the threat to the legal safeguards of our freedom from the EU’s Corpus Juris project for a single criminal law code for all Europe; and from the European Arrest Warrant –a veritable tool for tyranny, empowering any European judge/prosecutor to have anyone – including political opponents – arrested, trussed up and forcibly transported abroad to lengthy imprisonment, “pending investigation” on charges which can easily be completely false, no evidence needing to be shown while the “suspect” languishes.
I too read Howe’s analysis of Bojo’s Treaty on the “Lawyers for Britain” website: the reasons he gave for rejecting it were far stronger than those for accepting it, although he then said “on balance” it was better to accept it.
His Telegraph piece now clarifies that his priority is just to support the Tory party at all costs.
The coming election will see a contest between:
:
– LibDems/Remain Alliance = cancel the referendum result, remain in the EU;
– Labour = renegotiate a WA, and hold a referendum, campaigning to remain in the EU;
– Tories with Bojo’s Treaty = lose our voice, vote and veto in the EU, but remain totally under the EU’s thumb, at least during the – extensible – “transition” period, when they will be empowered to punish, pillage and plunder us at their pleasure. Indeed, under their iron heel – for BoJo will keep May’s acceptance of the amalgamation of our armed forces with the nascent EU army, not to mention maintaining the EAW.
OR
– the Brexit Party = a clean break from subjugation to all EU control and impositions, ie Brexit proper.
Now there is huge pressure on TBP to stand aside – all the media, all the Tories and even allies like Arron Banks – ganging up to tell Nigel to lay off.
This will leave a choice of remaining in the EU, remaining in the EU, or remaining under the EU.
Against this TBP will field 600 candidates, clearly aiming for a majority of seats. That means forming a government. But who’d lead it? The PM must be an MP.
Nigel’s decides not to contest a seat himself, so not him?? This doesn’t look good.
Let us hope that over the next few days he will reconsider.
.
Torquil E. Like all the other Tories Martin Howe doesn’t care about our civil liberties, its like trying to reason with a brick wall as I know from my own experience writing to them . All I ever got in reply eg from Steve Baker and my own MP Paul Beresford was the mantra that “we must cooperate over security and cross border crime.” Eg with the EU Arrest Warrant. They will not even discuss alternatives eg an extradition treaty which may be slower but observes due process. They’re probably under pressure from police lobbying; but there’s no excuse whatever for trashing all our rights under English Commpn Law.
Listen carefully, for I will say this only once “NEVER TRUST A TORY”! The mealy mouthed contradictions coming out of Martin Howe’s mouth are a perfect example. LibDems are mad, bad and dangerous, the Labour Party is Marxist. I am actively fighting to save UKIP from the power crazed machinations of the NEC, but in the meantime I will probably vote for the Brexit Party as this is permissible under UKIP’s rules.
Barbara Jell – very well put indeed. Just the strategy I have been imploring UKIPPERS to employ.
We really must put to one side Party differences for the greater good – a result which eases our way to a true Brexit.
It is difficult enough to try and trust our own politicians let alone those in Europe. Leavers must speak out at every turn – as you so rightly say and ‘beard the lion’ – although I may soon ‘shuffle off this mortal coil’, if there is one thing I will never regret – it is the wisdom which I gained from listening, distilling and absorbing the words of my elders – to the extent that I feel able to declare
“I am the Master of my fate;
“I am the Captain of my soul”.
To vote for anything other than a clean break from the EU would be a denial of my personally formed philosophy.
“…….any good thing that I can do, let me do it now,
for I may not pass this way again”.
This article made a big impression on me : https://independencedaily.co.uk/the-junta-that-is-waiting-to-rule-over-britain/
I don’t think any of this has changed and Howe is dead quiet about it. It seems to me that we would be completely at the mercy of this” joint” committee . Add the fact that the EU does not want a competitive EU on its doorstep, it wants our money indefinitely and has no motive to let us escape. To me it makes a nonsense of Howe’s claim that BoJo’s deal well get us out.
I also give here Richard Braine’s take :https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHt8GpGTORo
As usual, thank you Viv. I seem to be in a minority on here now. That is because I would like to see a Tory government with an opposition containing many Brexit Party MPs. I’d like the Tories to have a majority and all of them wanting Brexit but listening to genuine concerns coming from the opposition. Have BP hopefuls parliamentary experience? Do they understand how the system works or how negotiations are done? Unfortunately the whole Westminster/Whitehall machine nowadays is very complex. And the EU machine is very cunning.
We are complaining that politicians of ALL colours have broken their promises. Politicians always have broken election promises. What is to stop Boris saying now that ‘no deal’ is off the table then once his WA is agreed, we have a date, we’ve left but then finding so much wrong with the negotiations or the EU’s impositions during the transition period that he then is forced to crash out?
I’m furious about our fish. I’m furious about the EWA, the ECJ, the ongoing payments, our armed forces and many other things. But I want to give the Tories another chance because I think they are the only chance we have. BP even with UKIP have no chance, I’d say, of forming a Government this time. Let them get some MPs then see how it goes for next GE.
I would like to see any government composed of Brexiteers, regardless of party, but there is no chance with the legacy parties.
Tory government with many BP MPs in opposition? Exactly what Nigel hoped for when he proposed a pact with the Tories, and now he is the one being attacked by them and accused of endangering Brexit. Disgraceful.
I hope we are seeing the start of the demise of the Tory party.
Has anyone ever considered that ; the worst outcome might be for the Tories to return to power, and pass the dreadful Vassalage Treaty; or that the vassalage treaty may be worse than no brexit ? TBP will not get us Brexit, but it can stop the Tories from winning.
I’ve registered the website ‘NEVER TRUST A TORY.COM’ to match the poster trucks I was running in the summer. Nothing has changed, they are just better liars than Labour.
Thanks for this, Viv. I have been writing all day that M Howe’s analysis is unusually light. There are not the usual references to back up his dicta. Specifically:
1. Although GB leaves the Eu Customs Union, NI status is not mentioned. NI has to be treated like a third country and although we take most of their exports, they have to fill in all the export parapernalia.
2. No mention by MH of the elephant in the room: the Joint Committee a Junta of secret people who will oversee the trade talks and the ECJ as ultimate arbitrator. HARDLY BREXIT
3. No mention of the billions we will be paying, not just £39 bn.or of no return of fishing grounds or the loss to EU and command of our Armed Forces and now Intelligence and police under Von der Leyen. HARDLY BREXIT
4. No mention of the argy bargy going on for at least another 3 years, possibly 5 or more
5. Finally, no recognition that this is now beyond Brexit and we need to reset our cOnstitution and voting system, which only TBP is talking about.
I am fed up with being told if I don ‘t vote for the cowardly, deceitful Tories, this or that dreadful thing will happen. Thiis GE is a four horse race. What gives Boris and the Tories the right to think they have total entitlement to form a government. The audacity stinks. Get rid of them!
Tony Woodcock : “What gives Boris and the Tories the right to think they have total entitlement to form a government”.
A lady who stood as UKIP Parliamentary candidate in my constituency told me that at the hustings, our Tory MP glowered at her and demanded rudely , “What’s SHE doing here?” That same MP, a supporter of May’s “WA” wrote to me peddling the lie that it was brexit and would regain us control of our borders and free us from ECJ jurisdiction; he refuses to address the problem of the trashing of our civil liberties under English Common Law. I think he’s terrified of anyone who sees through Tory lies.
“I have been one of the fiercest and most persistent critics of Theresa May’s deal, based on detailed study of its 585 pages … ”
Oh no. Not ANOTHER fake Spartan. Or at 585 pages are we to believe this one’s Spartacus himself?
Let the Brexit Party stand firm and confidently pursue its campaign to clean out the Augean stables of Westminster. Brexit was always going to require changing the face of Parliament – lets get on with it.
I will say it again – UKIP MUST vote as an Alliance on this occasion with The Brexit Party ; together they could hold sway in Parliament and ensure that we LEAVE. Then what happens? Once we get Brexit – UKIP should fight tooth and nail to introduce the UKIP Manifesto within the Leave members – this will take time – but the resulting outcome would be a much truer reflection of how we all feel about the EU.
Nigel Farage should offer UKIP (and vice versa!) a deal – together they could be a force for good – because divided they are being ‘hoist by their own petard’. The most urgent and important need is to LEAVE…………then we will have time to resolve our differences and ETON WILL BE BEATEN.
You’re absolutely righr. TBP needs the ukip activists as well. If they are in UKIP they are pro brexit. And UKIP is now a sideshow and unhelpful. I’ve no idea what the nec is, or thinks it is, doing. The only option for ukip is as you say. UKIP still has some faint residual respect and now it is needed.
I am still UKIP member yet totally in the dark. Our new leader Richard Braine made a very good start, here are his views on BoJo’s revised treaty : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHt8GpGTORo. I honestly believe Tory saboteurs have been pulling out all the stops to wreck UKIP so that they can commit their crimes and lies unscrutinised. We elected a new NEC which looks a better choice yet before getting the result I heard Braine had been pushed out. Well its down to us personally now and I have been posting on ConWom delivering the same message as Viv gives here. I’m convinced BoJo doesnt want an alliance with Farage because he is NOT a leaver and may have his eye on one with Lib Dems after the election if he does badly, to help him push the “WA” through. Got my doubts about Farage but he’s the only brexit show in town lets face it.
“… the Northern Ireland backstop Protocol in the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) has been modified to remove Great Britain from being locked into a vassal-state customs union …”
The weasel words here are Great Britain: this is England, Scotland and Wales but not NI which has been thrown under a bus driven by Michelle O’Neill.
Thank you for a clearly written expose of this QC’s about face. I am voting with my conscience and with the fact that I have been anti-EU for some 15 years and have wanted out all that time. The Brex Party (and an awakening UKIP) both want the same and both without strings and delays and huge financial payments – in other words we leave and that’s that. I was all for the PM to begin with but the further down the road of time and comment I and others go the less happy I am with him and not at all with Brexit.
How dare he tell me (a UKIP member) to stand down and allow Boris to kow tow to the EU and pretend we have left. I won’t be fooled again a plague on all their houses.
Howe now says… don’t worry children it’ll all be alright on the night because there is ‘a legal obligation on both parties to use “best endeavours in good faith” .’
So, leaving aside the treachery behind the scenes, what has our side been doing for the last three and a half years, if not that? And look where that got us.
And he of course leaves out the clincher: interpretation of what is ‘best endeavours in good faith’ would be in the hands of, um, oh yes, our good friends the ECJ.
What a let down he is, as are so many other apparent stalwarts. And they uniformly and without apparent self-knowledge accuse Nigel, the only consistent, clear and honest broker who has given 25 years of his life to this cause, of being in it for his ego, prestige, money, the power broking, love of the spotlight, etc.
Nigel has left it a bit late. I expressed my opinion to everyone who needed to know on the day the Benn Bill (as it then was) proceeded to Third Reading what Boris was up to: he is a fake Leaver, he had no intention of delivering on his “do or die” pledge, indeed he deliberately took all steps necessary to make sure he could not deliver it, but that he would be able to blame someone else (Parliament) for his failure then portray himself as the Brexit champion and martyr. Namely, he could have stopped the Benn Act by refusing Queen’s Consent (it affected the Royal Prerogative) or Royal Assent otherwise. ‘course this is all a bit arcane for most people and Boris the snake oil salesman is counting on most people not noticing that little detail – his cynical con aristry seems to be being proven right, but then no one with a voice that anyone can hear is calling him out on that little fraud. I also said then that unless we started pummelling Boris there and then, lots of people would get behind the faux “Brexit champion” and then anyone daring oppose him would be treated like a party pooper “splitting the vote”. But nobody listened. Nevertheless, all the slimeball Tories who are willing to sell their country into vassalage for the sake of Tory hegemony (not just lawyers, but many think tanks) should be ashamed of themselves and we need to back all those fighting for a real, clean Brexit. It’s a real uphill battle though. “Snookered” is indeed the word that sums it all up best. I can now understand why people say “never trust a Tory”. Their principles may traditionally have been sounder than those of Labour and the LibDims, but they are are the least principled of all parties, willing to sell their own grandmothers for 30 pieces of silver, it would seem.
It would be far better to vote LibDim (revoke – and have proper Brexit later) or Lab (fake 2nd ref, Remain – and have proper Brexit later) than Cons (vassalage from which there is no escape and for which the UK has to pay tens of billions for). If you believe in Britain leaving the EU, the Conservatives are the only party you should absolutely under no circumstances vote for.
Tomaz Slivnik ; I wouldnt think of voting LibDim; I really do believe BoJo refused a pact with Nigel F because he has his eye on one with LibDim if he does badly in the election, whom he may need to help him get his vassalage treaty through; the Limp Dims might agree just to get a share of power. Whatever you do, dont vote mainstream.
“..the Limp Dims might agree just to get a share of power”.
The LIMP DICKS will do *anything* for power.
Howe is doing what the rest of the Tory party are; putting Party before country.
It’s not going to work this time though, as I held my nose & voted for them in 2017 based on May’s often repeated assertion that “no deal is better than a bad deal”.
Boris’ “deal” is a dire deal.
I won’t be fooled again.
Their own selfish interests before country as always. Let’s see their attitude change when faced with a significant number of TBP MPs in Parliament.
There wont be any. Right leaning folks have bought Boris. Farage has been snookered. Abandoning UKIP has left him with a new party with no members, no ethos and no organisation. Sad.
We will see. It is either that or a revolution if we are to save our country. Nothing ventured; nothing gained.
No organisation? Well, they’ve just unveiled 600 candidates for the Election.
If you want to leave the EU in any meaningful way, then I would respectfully suggest you put aside any dislike you may have for Farage, and vote for the only party that offers that.
How many constituency parties?
‘Ye of little faith….’ – Forget about Boris and Nigel and the Liberal ‘odd one’ – simply vote Leave – which is The Brexit Party.
Then, when the leavers have a modicum of power – start a coalition between TBP and the staunch supporters of UKIP.
100% agree! There is no alternative in this GE. TBP all the way and regardless of any local consequences. This is probably the most important GE post WW2. The only way I can see a result for democracy now is to cause as much destruction to the Political Establishment as is possible.
Suddenly a lot of people (like Mr Howe) seem to be back-pedalling. Could it be that they thought the Cons were fireproof, that they could criticise and censure with impunity, because the Cons would always be there, and would listen to their advice, and note their comments?
But – there’s a New Kid On The Block, and they don’t like it. Now these people will say ANYTHING to make sure the Cons win. They don’t want to lose their comfort zone.
On the basis of ”It may be ugly, but it’s OURS”.
A Barrister/QC you say….? Ah! Well, that explains everything doesn’t it? Would you buy a used Exit Agreement from a Barrister? Especially one driven by Theresa May……………….come on! Use yer ‘ed Brov!