Written by Nick Busvine
This article was first published in ‘Briefings for Britain’. We re-publish with their kind permission
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Sinn Fein’s strong showing in the Republic of Ireland’s recent general election has prompted a degree of concern that the party’s strong showing at the polls will somehow be ‘bad for Brexit’. On the contrary, Sinn Fein’s electoral performance is a welcome confirmation of the party’s transition from the political wing of the Provisional IRA to a committed participant in the democratic debate on the island of Ireland.
As a unionist, my hope is that Northern Ireland will remain firmly within the UK. But, the whole point of the peace process was to implement the commitments made in the Downing Street Declaration of December 1993 and subsequently enshrined in the Good Friday Agreement. At the heart of those commitments lies the principle of consent – giving the people on both sides of the border the right to make up their own minds on how best to resolve the issues between North and South.
While the threat of terrorist violence remains extant – as the dissident republican attempt to mount a bomb attack on Brexit day showed – it was frankly irresponsible of certain spokespeople linked to Theresa May’s administration to try to play up the risk of violence in an attempt to sell her doomed withdrawal agreement and the awful Northern Ireland backstop. By contrast, the Northern Ireland protocol within Boris Johnson’s withdrawal agreement looks prescient. By acknowledging the province’s special status, the British government has effectively given time and space to the people both north and south of the border to weigh up their options and decide their future. This is entirely within the spirit of the Good Friday Agreement.
It remains unclear whether or not Sinn Fein will play a role in the next Dublin government. But the indications are that Brexit was not uppermost in the minds of voters in the South. If the party does secure a share of power, it will be for Sinn Fein to demonstrate delivery on issues such as housing and health – as well as to make its case for a united Ireland. If popular opinion moves decisively in favour of unification north and south of the border, the Secretary of State will be required under the terms of the Northern Ireland Act 1998 to make an Order in Council Northern Ireland enabling a border poll.
In March 2019, the Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll found that just 38% of the Northern Ireland public thought there should be a referendum on Irish reunification, while 45% thought there should not be. This suggests that the nationalists need to make very significant headway before a border poll can be triggered – or, indeed, won. As the unification debate unfolds, Boris Johnson should not waiver from his pledge to ‘level up’ outside London and the South East – and that must include bolstering Northern Ireland as a successful, vibrant and integral part of the United Kingdom.
Nick Busvine OBE is a former diplomat and presently Mayor of Sevenoaks. He is a partner at Herminius, a Corporate Advisory firm.
One can only hope that the Paddies have the common sense to go for an Irexit and impose a 200 mile fishing zone, seafood being an increasingly valuable resource in a world whose population is growing at the rate of around 1/4 million every day !
George. You are not likely to win any endorsement of your opinion from Irish people by referring to them as ‘Paddies’. In most of Ireland and especially N.Ireland, that word is considered to be derogatory !
I must admit to being ambivalent about Irish unity; it is not for us to interfere with the democratic wish of the NI people. Individuals must surely have the option of relocating to mainland UK if unification didn’t suit them.
I don’t believe this case is in any way comparable with the Sturgeons cry for independence. We would have a necessary sea border with a United Ireland. An open border with an independent Scotland would present unacceptable risks, particularly in regard to illegal immigration.
Sturgeon could not manage the proverbial in a brewery, let alone a country.
The Eire election seems to be another indication of the move across Europe towards national populist parties and away from establishment musical chair parties in a two-party state.
Sometimes, the national populist challenger is of the Left: Italy 5 Star, Spain Podemos, Greece Syriza. Sometimes, it is of the conservative, traditional side of politics: Italy Lega, Spain Vox, France Rassemblement Nacional, AfD in Germany.
Sometimes, as I believe in Eire, the nationsl Populists of the left have to break the mould of two-party establishment dominance before the conservative , traditional populists make the running. Again 5Star/Lega looks like being just Lega next time. Vox is already outperforming Podemos in Spain. AfD is now a strong third-party challenger to both Merkel’s CDU and the Socialists.
In Eire, I shall be watching to see if their Irexit Freedom Party does the same. Certainly, the two main parties have taken a beating and are losing popular support.
Bad news re Italy’s Lega Nord, Matteo Salvini : https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/italy-salvini-facing-show-trial-kidnapping-migrants
Our enemies’ response to threats like “populists” is increasingly to wage lawfare on them. Expect to see many politically motivated , banana republic- type legal stitch- ups as globalists bulldoze and kick away everyone who gets in their way.
That’s right Tony, it will be interesting to see how Ireland’s Irexit Freedom Party fares in future. Sinn Fein means Ourselves Alone in Gaelic, so the Sinn Fein surge looks like a vote for Eire to leave the EU, a vote for Irish Home Rule. I believe that if Irexit happens then it will be best for Ireland to rejoin the rest of the British Isles. I even wrote a letter recommending that, which was published in this website on the first Thursday of this month. But Sinn Fein would probably prefer Ireland to join the USA rather than the UK. So it will be interesting to see how Ireland’s Freedom Party gets on.
The last I heard a year/18months’ ago, 40% of Eire electorate wants to leave the EU. They have two mammoth difficulties: membership of the euro & massive indebtedness from their bank failure when the eurotocracy forced them to take massive loans on bailout terms………meaning that, like Greece, they are a vassal state of the EU empire.
It is possible that Northern Ireland might, at some point in the future, have a vote upon unification with the Irish Republic. – The South would do well to demonstrate the positive, and ensure a check upon the IRA is firm and complete ! – The South’s continued membership of the EU, is one wild card in this question, and it will be interesting to see the lengths that the EU will go to in this matter ! ….. Above and beyond this is Westminster’s dealings with the North, which needs to be full, generous and complete, whilst avoiding foolish excess !
Sinn Fein’s recent vote should elevate that Party to be a full and active member of the Republic’s Government, but if they go soft upon control of the IRA, then their advantage will be lost. – We are all about to witness Sinn Fein’s ability, or lack of it !