Today’s two letters are about Brexit and the EU. Letters on other issues will be published by the weekend.
here are reflections on Brexit, the EU and the Euro in 2019.
Anyone listening to the BBC would think that leaving the EU in any way at all would be an unmitigated disaster, that the UK Parliament is entirely sovereign in all respects, and that all is well with the EU. It is of course completely wrong in all three respects.
Dealing first with leaving the EU, it now seems almost certain that the UK will be released from the Treaties of the EU at 11.00 p.m. UK time on 29 March on a “no deal” basis. This has a huge number of massive advantages for the UK, of which some of the main ones are these: no payment of the so-called “divorce bill” of £39 billion, or indeed any significant sums at all to the EU ever again; regain of control of our laws and borders; and complete freedom to negotiate whatever we want with whomever we want, including the EU, whilever the EU survives.
One of the main reasons people voted to leave the EU was in order to restore sovereignty to the UK Parliament. At present, still trapped in the EU, the UK is subject to the sovereign will of the EU and its agency the ECJ. There is no appeal from decisions of the ECJ, and so it can and does act as illegally as it wishes. The most recent example of this was its ruling that the UK has the right unilaterally to revoke the Article 50 Notification, which violates all the principles which underpin the EU. Hardly a surprise, though, was it?
This brings us finally to the state of the EU. Looking first at the euro, the bizarre mechanism within it known as “TARGET2” reached breaking point more than a year ago. This system is designed to preserve capital balances among the participating states by means of an infinite series of grotesque IOUs; grotesque because not only is no interest paid on them, but also there is no obligation to repay them!
Since May 2018 capital has been flooding out of Italy, and so flooding back into Italy, almost exclusively from Germany, at a truly alarming rate. The Euro has at all relevant times been very bad indeed for Italy, ensuring that it has not grown at all since it joined the currency. Prior to that it had simply devalued with frequency and regularity in order to prosper, something which of course it cannot do in the Euro. It has a national debt of 2.4 TRILLION Euros, its banks are all insolvent saddled as they are with massive amounts of “non-performing” loans, and it has appalling levels of unemployment. All this means that it is virtually certain that the euro will not survive the year, and that Italy, now governed by an extremely Eurosceptic coalition, will default on its debts.
France is in the grip of national “yellow jacket” riots protesting ferociously about the government of Mr Macron, which have resulted in several deaths, and which are now spreading to Luxemburg. That movement is considering putting up candidates in the May elections; and meanwhile, Marine le Pen’s party has already overtaken Macron’s ‘En Marche’ in the polls. All over Europe Eurosceptic populism is on the rise, even extending to the AfD in Germany, which is now challenging the centrist parties in a very serious manner, taking full advantage of Mrs Merkel’s increasing weakness.
Coincidentally, a number of key EU appointments come up for renewal this year, as well as the elections in May. In the circumstances, it is likely that most if not all of the reins of power of the EU will, by the end of June, be in the hands of people who hate the EU with a vengeance. It is just possible that there will not even be an EU to leave on 29 March!
Respectfully, Septimus Octavius
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We are scheduled to leave the EU on Tuesday 29 March 2019 at 23:00 hrs GMT. There can be no doubt that government will do all it can to frustrate our leaving at the appointed time. We must prepare our response for the following day so I suggest that UKIP set up a working party to coordinate our efforts for mass demonstrations on that day. May I also suggest that we all book a day off work on that day so that we may support those demonstrations. With sufficient numbers we can make a real and necessary impact. If the unexpected happens and we do actually leave the EU at that time then just enjoy the day off to celebrate.
Respectfully, Jack Thomas