Today’s two letters are about Brexit and the EU. Letters on other issues will be published by the weekend.
Sir,
here are reflections on Brexit, the EU and the Euro in 2019.
Anyone listening to the BBC would think that leaving the EU in any way at all would be an unmitigated disaster, that the UK Parliament is entirely sovereign in all respects, and that all is well with the EU. It is of course completely wrong in all three respects.
Dealing first with leaving the EU, it now seems almost certain that the UK will be released from the Treaties of the EU at 11.00 p.m. UK time on 29 March on a “no deal” basis. This has a huge number of massive advantages for the UK, of which some of the main ones are these: no payment of the so-called “divorce bill” of £39 billion, or indeed any significant sums at all to the EU ever again; regain of control of our laws and borders; and complete freedom to negotiate whatever we want with whomever we want, including the EU, whilever the EU survives.
One of the main reasons people voted to leave the EU was in order to restore sovereignty to the UK Parliament. At present, still trapped in the EU, the UK is subject to the sovereign will of the EU and its agency the ECJ. There is no appeal from decisions of the ECJ, and so it can and does act as illegally as it wishes. The most recent example of this was its ruling that the UK has the right unilaterally to revoke the Article 50 Notification, which violates all the principles which underpin the EU. Hardly a surprise, though, was it?
This brings us finally to the state of the EU. Looking first at the euro, the bizarre mechanism within it known as “TARGET2” reached breaking point more than a year ago. This system is designed to preserve capital balances among the participating states by means of an infinite series of grotesque IOUs; grotesque because not only is no interest paid on them, but also there is no obligation to repay them!
Since May 2018 capital has been flooding out of Italy, and so flooding back into Italy, almost exclusively from Germany, at a truly alarming rate. The Euro has at all relevant times been very bad indeed for Italy, ensuring that it has not grown at all since it joined the currency. Prior to that it had simply devalued with frequency and regularity in order to prosper, something which of course it cannot do in the Euro. It has a national debt of 2.4 TRILLION Euros, its banks are all insolvent saddled as they are with massive amounts of “non-performing” loans, and it has appalling levels of unemployment. All this means that it is virtually certain that the euro will not survive the year, and that Italy, now governed by an extremely Eurosceptic coalition, will default on its debts.
France is in the grip of national “yellow jacket” riots protesting ferociously about the government of Mr Macron, which have resulted in several deaths, and which are now spreading to Luxemburg. That movement is considering putting up candidates in the May elections; and meanwhile, Marine le Pen’s party has already overtaken Macron’s ‘En Marche’ in the polls. All over Europe Eurosceptic populism is on the rise, even extending to the AfD in Germany, which is now challenging the centrist parties in a very serious manner, taking full advantage of Mrs Merkel’s increasing weakness.
Coincidentally, a number of key EU appointments come up for renewal this year, as well as the elections in May. In the circumstances, it is likely that most if not all of the reins of power of the EU will, by the end of June, be in the hands of people who hate the EU with a vengeance. It is just possible that there will not even be an EU to leave on 29 March!
Respectfully, Septimus Octavius
~~~ OOO ~~~
Sir,
We are scheduled to leave the EU on Tuesday 29 March 2019 at 23:00 hrs GMT. There can be no doubt that government will do all it can to frustrate our leaving at the appointed time. We must prepare our response for the following day so I suggest that UKIP set up a working party to coordinate our efforts for mass demonstrations on that day. May I also suggest that we all book a day off work on that day so that we may support those demonstrations. With sufficient numbers we can make a real and necessary impact. If the unexpected happens and we do actually leave the EU at that time then just enjoy the day off to celebrate.
Respectfully, Jack Thomas
I think your idea is great Jack Thomas. Getting as many people as possible in one place for a specific day takes planning and communication. It also requires good notice for individual preparations and logistics.
Then whatever the outcome there will be a ready-made response.
I shall definitely be suggesting this to my local branch to be pursued.
Your letter Septimus Octavius outlines a number of facets of bankruptcy. The MSM, UK Politics and the EU are bankrupt. There is moral bankruptcy, bankruptcy of credibility, financial bankruptcy, bankruptcy of purpose and now they are becoming bankrupt of support. The latter is most important because without support there is no way back. They cannot print support and they cannot deny support. The boat will sink as everyone rushes to one side of the deck. Once it is gone it is gone! The support they have is not founded in rational and so is not sustainable. People will question their allegiances. People are selfish and fickle they will go with the trend and as with the stock market there will be a catastrophic run on EU support. And then the questions will start, the vilification, the retribution, the quick beat and the anger.
But what will be left? To be ahead one must extrapolate.
A collapse of the financial systems, civil unrest, clamp downs, unilateral action, poverty, famine, vigilantism, revenge, suffering and death.
Further down the road, a new European order of Nation States.
A right-off of unrecoverable debts. The Euro will become worthless. A new deutschmark will be shunned and fail as the EU institutions go into rigour mortis. All bets will be off!
There are two things that I would like to see.
The collapse of European Socialism in all its deceitful forms.
The prosecution of as many of the culprits as is possible in a Nuremburg style process.
Excuse my self-indulgency. Maybe I am being fanciful, but who knows in these times?
It has been reported that the French ‘yellow vests’ are to have a run on the Banks this weekend. I believe that a person is limited to around 300 euros per day from an ATM. If this occurs, then watch the ‘files d’attente de rock nordique’ form on Monday morning.
Italian bank gone bust. Not widely reported.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-banks-italy-carige/ecb-calls-in-administrators-to-save-italys-carige-idUSKCN1OW18U
Re Italy, this will be of interest, not widely reported. Italian bank collapse.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-banks-italy-carige/ecb-calls-in-administrators-to-save-italys-carige-idUSKCN1OW18U
I just wonder how long the monarchy will survive here, there are a few calls on different blogs for the Queen to step in over this constitutional crisis, which would appear to be as bad or even worse than the abdication crisis in the 30’s. If this shenanigans is allowed to go on for much longer it would seem that the Queen will have to make some decisions. Deals, Lies, sellouts, cabinets falling apart, government and parliamentary rules being ignored the referendum being ignored and another called before implementation of the first, The Prime Minister acting as a President the Military Union being agreed to without any discussion in the commons, the list goes on and on. Given the state of the public services and the economy along with crime rates fast becoming a nightmare in some parts of the country, it would seem that the U.K is fast becoming ungovernable by anyone. The political class and the establishment need to wake up the natives are becoming more than restless, or was that the idea in the first place?
It depends what’s on TV whether the British natives take to the streets or not.
The Queen has been worse than usekess so far: why would she change as long as she still enjoys her comfortable life?
This is war, my calender says the 29th is a Friday. It had to be a Friday. In order to hold meetings for two extra days and make some hideous, traitorous , unexpected, and probably secret personally advantageous deals over two extra days…. Leaving the world stunned by perfidious Albion and the evil continent. Probably followed by civil unrest. Because after 3 years positions have polarised,
I just hope the EU vanishes as a political entity before then, and that it can be replaced as a nonpolitical loose alliance under the reformed ( Constitionalised.) Royal familees of europe.in some sort of commonality to give continuity. This is something Mrs May could actually do that would be helpful. She’s already met the PMs multiple times. We need more less grandious plans secure from politicians, and powerful families.
And we can clean up our own democracy while we’re at it. namely Representation, Manifesto, Political creep.
Clean up UN. To highlight Conquest by religion/stealth :- infiltration, disruption, Tactics popularised by Catholic church copied by Islam etc and popularised by Socialism. And to outlaw it.
Indeed it is Friday; sorry for the error.
P S please DO NOT take a dayff after Brexit. That would not be good for anybody.. Personally ” Quiet Satisfaction” that Britain is getting slowly back to sanity. .. Personally i regard both Conservatives and labour and in fact all politicians with disgust and try to scrape them off my shoe. However they presently seem the only, or viable legal route. So untill and if ukip ever shows signs of becoming a serious party. I will then concern myself only with current legislation. However sincei have never had any discernable political effect, I see no reason why anybody need be concerned.