Sir,
this is the Brexit position as of 1st February 2019:
After months of uncertainty, things suddenly looked a lot clearer as at the close of the divisions on the amendments proposed in the House of Commons on Tuesday evening.
The most important feature of those proceedings is that Yvette Cooper’s proposal was defeated; the significance of this is that there is now no real chance of the UK seeking an extension of the Article 50 period. The only two to get through were the meaningless one rejecting “no deal”, and another mandating the PM to seek the removal of the so-called “backstop” provisions of the extant proposed withdrawal agreement.
Remoaner MPs were correctly openly disheartened at the outcome. This is because a clean no deal Brexit will now definitely occur at 11.00 p.m. UK time on Friday 29 March 2019 (i.e. “exit day” as defined in the EU (Withdrawal) Act 2018), unless one of two improbable things happens, one of these being less unlikely than the other.
The slightly more likely event is that a withdrawal agreement comes into force at any moment before exit day. For this to occur, firstly there would have to be a legally binding alteration to the extant proposed withdrawal agreement. The concrete position of the EU is that this simply cannot happen, as their various spokespersons were quick to emphasise immediately after that close of business on Tuesday. Nothing is impossible, however, and this might just happen.
If it did, the next hurdle would be to put the amended proposed withdrawal agreement to a “meaningful vote” in the House of Commons. Given the history of this aspect of the matter this year, in particular the 230 vote majority against the original proposal, the narrow margin by which the relevant amendment was passed, and the £39 billion bill, it is far from certain that any amendment would be enough to sway the vote in favour.
Just suppose, though, for the sake of this hypothesis, that the Withdrawal Agreement got through these two stages. It would then go for rubber stamping at the European Parliament, and the moment that occurred the agreement would come into force. Under Article 50 the UK would at that moment be released from the Treaties of the EU, and the ECA 1972 would promptly put them straight back! The trap set out in the EU (Withdrawal) Act would indeed have been sprung. To put it mildly, this would be a chaotic legal situation of immense proportions. Thankfully, for the reasons set out above, it is unlikely to happen.
The only other way of preventing a clean break at Exit Day would be for statutory authority be given to the PM to revoke the Article 50 Notification. There was not even a proposed amendment seeking this. Moreover, it seems that there are only a handful of MPs who would be willing to do such a monstrous denial of the democratic vote of 17.4 million people. This possibility is therefore less likely that the first.
In view of all this, it is now very likely indeed that at Exit Day two things will happen: the UK will be released from the Treaties of the EU in the absence of a withdrawal agreement, and the ECA 1972 will be repealed; and because these two events would occur at exactly the same instant, the aforementioned trap would be completely disarmed.
This being so, as soon as possible the UK Government should now make the position clear to the EU, and suggest an arrangement under Article XXIV of GATT be agreed to come into force immediately after Exit Day, which would clearly be beneficial for all concerned, giving as it does 10 years in which to agree a formal trade treaty.
Respectfully, Septimus Octavius
~~~ OOO ~~~
Sir,
I have just sent the message below directly to No 10. I will if course let you know if and when I get a response:
“Dear Sirs
FOI request – £39bn Payment to E.U.
Please regard this as a formal Freedom of Information Request to the Government
It is understood that the U.K. government has agreed to pay the European Union the sum of £39 billion, in exchange for Brexit.
We might expect the U.K.’s stake in E.U. assets to be factored in the balance of accounts. So please could you advise:
- What the E.U. has promised the U.K. in exchange for the £39bn payment, and under what conditions. Also:
- How much that payment was adjusted to account for the value of the UK’s stake in E.U. assets, plus any surpluses or profits arising.
- Since neither Article 50, nor the House of Lords, can justify such payment, what justification does the Government have for making it?
It would clearly be unreasonable for the British taxpayer to be denied that information and I look forward to hearing from you.
Yours faithfully, etc”
Respectfully, Roger Arthur
Why are we discussing this idiotic WA. Do we actually believe it ?
Are we all barmy. ?
What has changed in 2.75 years ?
NOTHING
What is going to happen up till 29 th March
NOTHING
but we’ll be softened up!
What will havehappened by the 29 th March
NOTHING
What will happen on 29 th March ?
Actually happen.
NOTHING
Pretend happen ?
Could be anything Doesn’t matter.
What will happen after 29 th March ?
Nothing except troop movements. ( Luckily foreigners ). UKIP will have a demonstration. Parliament will be sacked and the Civil Service willt take over for Brussels. There will be no problem about this as the Civil Service has been moving toward this since the 1940s. and they are already organised for it .Politicians won’t care, they’ll be paid.There may even be a temporary improvement as foreigners are not likely to put up with our drugged up, disobedient and uneducated kids ( and pensioners ) as we do.
The significance of the Ides of March is not lost. Just delayed a fortnight.
AND what about UKIP’s political future ?
Do we not want to think about it ?
Septimus says, ” It (the WA) would then go for rubber stamping at the European Parliament, and the moment that occurred the agreement would come into force. Under Article 50 the UK would at that moment be released from the Treaties of the EU, and the ECA 1972 would promptly put them straight back! The trap set out in the EU (Withdrawal) Act would indeed have been sprung.”
I enquire — is this true? I ask because I genuinely don’t know. It was my understanding that when we Exit, or the WA is finalised, then the ECA 1972 is automatically repealed. This is currently set to happen 29 March, so there is no trap. We will have left the EU and be governed solely by UK laws, albeit under the Repeal all current EU laws operating in the UK will continue to apply until the UK Parliament decides to amend or repeal them. After 29 March the ECJ will have no jurisdiction within the UK and the UK Supreme Court will be the senior legal authority in the land.
Is this right or have I misunderstood? Where in the WA is this “trap” set out?
Needless to say everything else in the WA is a trap set to ensnare the UK within the EU’s domain for evermore.
To Septimius Octavius: re yesterdays Daily Brexit re May’s attenpt at a WAB of deceit:
https://independencedaily.co.uk/your-daily-brexit-friday-1st-february-2019 and Alan Piper’s comment explaining this. How do you think this will pan out? I have to admit I’m having difficulty getting my head round some of these things !
Well done Riger Arthur. About time someone asked for this info.
“Under Article 50 the UK would at that moment be released from the Treaties of the EU, and the ECA 1972 would promptly put them straight back! The trap set out in the EU (Withdrawal) Act would indeed have been sprung”
Can you clarify this as S1 of the EU (Withdrawal) Act 2018 repeals ECA 1972.
39 Billion is c£2000 for every taxpayer and enough to buy 45 warships. Or hospitals.
Sod giving them a penny.
Perhaps those good UKIP people manning the protests will display a poster about the 2000gbp per taxpayer or maybe it should go on the poster truck. It should make people think.
Good idea, and I am one of those who attend the parliamentary protests on a regular basis not because I enjoy it but because I feel it needs to be done and we have to have more protesters than the ‘Remain’ contingent. However, until Tuesday last, UKIP were not playing a leading role in these protests, and leaving it to Leave mean Leave to do. This HAS to change and change pretty smartly. This requires the UKIP leadership to start taking the lead here, and not just do it to take advantage of a possible interview with some ‘Remain’ supporting numpty, I mean journalist, from the BBC The other thing, is that the banners need to be hard hitting with a specific message on each. It is not sufficient to say ‘Lets go WTO’, ‘Leave Means Leave’ and ‘Don’t Delay Brexit’. We know all that, but a short succinct message on each will do wonders. Surely, I cannot be too difficult to do…………..
Desperately share your frustration and despair Colin – we need get out the EVERY DAY with our presence, hard hitting slogans making a nuisance of ourselves and keeping up some MOMENTUM – sometimes we seem to be INVISIBLE AND VOICELESS and won’t unite with any other pro Brexit organisation or ally!!
If the £39 billion is handed over to the EU just to bolster up Theresa May’s reputation with the EU, every taxpayer should be up in arms against this government for mis-spending our hard-earned contribution into the British tax coffer meant for the benefit of the realm and our citizens. at £2,000 per every tax-payer, we have a right to know for whom the bell tolled.
I do hope you are correct about the options and direction events are taking us.
I once imagined the MPs as a shoal of fish being eaten by predators. Swirling and grouping, ducking and diving, dodging and weaving. The predators being The People (Democracy), Law (Procedure) and Time. But that, I have decided, was not a good analogy as it doesn’t allow for the base deviousness that politicians have shown themselves capable of.
I have latterly considered that the events of the last year have been orchestrated to achieve confusion in the minds of the electorate, thus escalating apathy. But what you are saying would suggest that in that obfuscation, (returning to my first analogy) and by dealing with the people they are now grappling with the Law. I have no doubt they will find a way around the Law, but time is a brick wall. I may now have to revalue the worth of the Lords, as in dealing with the Law they would have to pass changes there. Have I got that right?
We have seven weeks six days, didn’t someone suggest an Advent Calendar?
I look forward to seeing much more scrutiny of what our illustrious Government have promised, behind our backs, to the EU, i.e. the £39bn. Will there be any way that these people can be brought to justice if we get out of the Evil Empire?
Has anyone here ever heard the expression ‘God is not the author of confusion’?
If you believe that the main thing our government has promised behind our backs is the £39 billion, you need to check out EU Military Union (hint: https://www.ukcolumn.org/series/eu-military-unification)
Indeed Jim, I’ve been going on about this for years now but there seems to be little interest. Will it take EUROGENDFOR on our streets to waken them up?
Britain needs a leader not a traitor. We’ve got plenty of those. Or we accept we are a nation of traitors
Thank you Septimus for this cautious optimisim.
Good point Roger.
Well done Roger. Our share of assets is never mentioned by government. I believe it is well in excess of the 39b.
The EU has had more than that value in fish since Heath gave away our waters.What has leaving got to do with the price of fish? One heck of a lot when you live in a coastal community such as Brixham.