- The “Project Fear” scare story now doing the rounds is that all Leave voters should “get behind Boris, Nigel should step aside, or we will get a Corbyn Marxist government with its Venezuelan-style economic policies and anti-semite prejudices and it will be a total nightmare”.
- With our First Past The Post voting system, when there are two parties on the same ‘side’ they can split that side’s vote, causing the opposing side to win a seat, even if it has a minority of votes overall.
- In this situation, voters will usually not vote for the party that they like best. They will vote for the party that they believe stands the best chance of stopping the party they dislike the most from winning. They will judge this on past form. So far, this has meant that those who dislike the Tories most will vote Labour and vice-versa.
- During previous General Elections the party most likely to stop Labour was the Tory party. But at the last nation-wide election, the Europarliamentary election, the new Brexit Party beat the Tories resoundingly, winning 29 seats to the Tories’ 4 seats, with 5,248,533 votes to 1,512,809.
- The electorate felt the Tories are not to be trusted.
- Although the Brexit Party currently has no seats in the House of Commons it is highly debatable whether they or the Tories should be considered the ‘junior’ partner and should step aside to give a free run to the other, in the supreme interest of getting Brexit at last.
- The obvious solution, if they both really want a Brexit, and to avoid a Corbyn or anyway a Remainer majority, is for them to form an electoral pact and not compete against each other in the same constituencies, each encouraging their followers to vote for the other partner, as the case may be, as sole pro-Brexit candidate in each constituency. This way a Leave majority would be assured. The Brexit Party would have a free run in the Labour heartlands where no Tory has ever been elected, and would abstain from fielding its own candidates in other seats, leaving a free run for the Tories.
- As recently as November 1st last, Nigel was offering an electoral pact to Boris, on condition that Boris dropped the new treaty agreement he has reached with Brussels. Boris has refused. Rudely. This inadequately motivated refusal will make many doubt how genuine is his desire to really win back the country’s independence, or whether his main aim is to keep the Tory party together, with its portion of Ken Clarke-type wildly pro-EU “grandees”.
- Yesterday – see the link – Nigel offered a compromise for an electoral pact which would ensure a majority Leave Parliament: the only two conditions he now requires are that a) the agreement with the EU should be changed so that the “transition period” is no longer extensible: it must have a definitive termination date at the end of next year, and if no Free Trade Agreement has been reached by then, the UK will be free of all EU entanglements on “No Deal”, WTO terms, and b) that the FTA should not include any conditions of regulatory alignment by the UK with the EU.
- During the ‘transition period’ as constituted at present, the UK is totally under EU rule with no voice, no vote and no veto. Brussels will actually be empowered to pillage and plunder us like a colony. Barnier has said that the current transition period will have to be extended, or there will not be enough time to arrange a trade deal. As presently constituted they can continue to kick the can down the road indefinitely.
- It is therefore unlikely that Brussels will want to accept a hard termination date. However after 12th December, this is what a new Johnson government should have to insist on. And, if Boris accepts Nigel’s pact, there will be Brexit Party MPs on the green benches to make sure that he does.
- If Boris refuses this very reasonable compromise offer, he will have to give reasons. The unlimited extensibility of the ‘transition period’ is clearly not in the UK’s interest, so why should Boris want to keep it? It would reveal a sly intention on his part to keep Britain in, and under, the EU, indefinitely.
- If Boris refuses this offer, then the Brexit Party will have to field all its 600+ candidates. At that point the electorate will be faced with a choice to vote –
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- for the LibDem-led Remain Alliance, to revoke article 50, deny the referendum result, and remain in the EU; or
- for Corbyn’s Labour party, who want to negotiate a new agreement with Brussels and then hold a second referendum, campaigning to remain in the EU; or
- for Boris and his Treaty as is, with the prospect of remaining not just in the EU, but under its thumb, not to say iron heel, with no voice, nor vote nor veto, for an indefinitely extensible “transition period”.
- Or they could vote –
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- for the Brexit Party, offering a clean break and the reacquisition of Britain’s freedom and independence.
- Recent opinion polls have been showing that the Tory vote will be larger than the Brexit Party vote. This is surely the effect of the deafening mainstream media campaign to present Boris’s ‘deal’ as a genuine Brexit.
- But as the population becomes aware of the real content of Boris’s ‘deal’, and learns that it is really the same as T May’s deal, with some lipstick added on (as Brussels is confirming now), and as they realise that Boris spurning this very generous compromise offer can only mean that he intends to leave Barnier with a free hand to keep us in subjugation to Brussels while they continue to kick the can down the road, how certain can Boris and his advisers be now that the voters will not repeat the choice they made in March this year, and give a majority to the Brexit Party?
Far better and more statesmanlike on his part to put country before party, accept Nigel’s offer, and ensure that on 13th December we will have a solid Leave, pro-Brexit majority in Parliament. Which is what he says he wants.
There are going to be many seriously pissed off Brexit Party candidates who feel Farage is wrong in his decision to stand them down.
If they are quick (nominations close Thursday 4pm) they could stand as Independents ( Approx £500 registration fees refundable if vote return exceeds 5%).
You also are expected to pay for literature (Royal Mail will distribute) and get a load of signatures on your nomination forms. It’s a big ask in two days.
Another good analysis by Torquil. Thanks. Taking on both of the govt musical chair parties at once by TBP was always going to be a high risk strategy. Farage has clearly seen that by doing so he could risk Corbininski slithering into power by mistake. Although disappointed, because I simply heartily dislike the cowardly and incipiently fascist UNconservative party, i loathe Lab Lib anti-Democrat alliance even more. Best to try to decimate Labour first and deal with the wretched Tories later. I trust Farage’s judgement. It has done well in the past. Since my Tory MP is both a remainer and complicit in the betrayal of our Armed Forces to EU control as a defence minister, with no leaver, I shall vote ” none of the above …..Brexit Now!”
Ladies and gentlemen, with the greatest respect to you all,
There is absolutely no point in us saying the same dreams and wishes over and over every day. The Scum will do whatever is necessary in their singular directive of getting re-elected. Why do you believe anything the Government say?
There isn’t a hell’s cat in a snowball of escape from the EU short of revolution and They know we’re too scared to do that. The EU know that. What have the Barclays and Francois’s been offered to go along? A peerage? Are they that shallow? Guys, it’s Treason’s Deal without the Backstop!
Everything even semi-encouraging you hear from No 10 is just to shut us all up with a little bit’a hope.
This election is NOTHING to do with Brexit. It’s THE SURVIVAL OF THE TORY PARTY. NOTHING MORE. NOTHING LESS. NOTHING ELSE.
That sounds about right! Farage should have stuck to his guns “…….even if those all around are losing theirs”.
I have just watched the Youtube showing Nigel’s press conference announcing he will stand down 317 TBP candidates. There are hundreds of viewers comments, practically all of them damning Nigel to hell.
Here is the comment I put
========
WHY OH WHY ??
Farage is standing down 317 candidates to give BoJo a free run in 317 seats currently held by Tory MPs. This is so as not to split the anti-Remain vote. Leavers in these constituencies will have to vote Tory, no alternative.
But HOW MANY IS BOJO STANDING DOWN TO allow the Brexit Party a free run in the other constituencies?
The answer is NONE.
So in all the constituencies at present held by LibDems, Labour, Green, SNP or whatever, TBP will have to wrest them away. But the Tories will also be contesting these seats!! So the Leave vote there will be split between the Tories and TBP. The Remainers are holding these seats now, and in all probability will continue to hold them, since the Leave vote will be SPLIT. The likelihood now is that TBP will get no MPs at all. Especially since most of Nigel’s supporters will be disgusted.
Boris meeting Nigel’s “two conditions” was MERE WORDS. Without him standing down candidates to give TBP a free run anywhere, there is no way he can be held to account,
Nigel doesn’t actually say here that Boris is NOT reciprocating this “generous” (actually profligate) gesture. But when he says that his party is creating a “UNILATERAL leave alliance”, his sheepish grin shows that this is the case.
Personally I am deeply disappointed, and I regret having spent time and energy in supporting what I thought was Nigel’s genuine effort.
This ex UKIP, Floating Voter, might not make his mind up until election day !
You see, its a General Election and not a Referendum ! – We will be voting for a Government for the next five years, as well as a Brexit outcome !
On the one hand we have Boris and his Tories. – That Party headed by PM Cameron, arranged the EU referendum ! – PM May is best not commented on as the job was far too great for her ! – PM Johnson makes the right noises, but has no majority in the Commons, and if we give him that majority, then the excuses for Brino would fall flat. – Only a full Brexit upon WTO, would satisfy me and the 17.4 million. Boris is however our resident PM in Downing Street, and backed with a manifesto !
Then we have Nigel and his TBP. – His starting a new Party as he jumped ship from UKIP, and his decision to not stand in his new Party does not bode well with me. Also, if this were a referendum upon the EU, he would get my vote. – However, it is a GE and as such a single issue Party is clearly out of its depth upon this election. – Watch out for a hastily cobbled together manifesto ! His self interest as in, – ‘I wouldn’t wish to be PM’ !, – rather than him putting the Nation’s interests first, is yet another mark against him !
We have a month before the GE, so perhaps you can see why this Brexit lover will only decide on the day !
Mike, I’ve told you this before. Farage did NOT start TBP. It was Catherine Blaiklock!
Here is a link from Kipper Central. My initial reaction is to take it with a huge pinch of salt but I would be interested to know anyone else’s views?
https://kippercentral.com/2019/11/05/leave-wins-boris-has-played-4d-chess-and-you-havent-realised-it
A risky strategy; I simply don’t trust Boris who, along with others will put party before country. We must have a decent number of TBP MPs.
Interesting but I think not. Looks to me like normal muddying the waters. Creating uncertainty in the absence of positive opposition. Quite good tactics given the lack of opposition and media support as a different kind of backstop. Why is there no project fear on our side.It’s all black and white and clear enough for the voters.
Fishing, Army, Nuclear Subs, Aircraft Carriers, Taxes, VAT, government.
All Gone. Organise don’t pratt.. Talking to our computers is not action.
Furthermore – speaking of the faceless Brexit Party candidates – would that Labour had elected a few more ‘faceless’ candidates.
Did any of you by any chance get a view of those fish-wives and harridans who were howling at the Government Benches because someone used an olde English word?
I am the first one to admire our female (or even some ALMOST female) MP’s, but, come on, could we just possibly have one or two more who have not based their persona on the gargoyles featured in the highest peaks of ‘the Palace’ of Westminster – positioned there it is rumoured to chase away evil – didn’t have much success with that ghastly bunch of demented Dahlias did they?
Strange isn’t it that we don’t seem to have those ‘political caricatures’ leering and wobbling from the opposite benches?
Mind you, they are infinitely more attractive than that unshaven disheveled Russian peasant Rasputin Corbyn – then again, was he not pretty shrewd when he discarded his one-time girl friend, that gift to the Westminster horror movie industry, Diane Abbott, mathematician Supreme ( provided she has an abacus!) By the way, don’t laugh, she IS the Shadow Home Secretary. Gordon Bennet!
So, forget about a Beauty Competition or I.D. Parade – just mark your precious vote where it says The Brexit Party and look at their faces later – TBP ALL have only one policy after all – LEAVE! ……..DONT AGONISE – SEE HOW SIMPLE IT CAN BE?
Indeed, all other policies are irrelevant unless EU control is removed.
One major issue not covered in this otherwise excellent piece: is it tolerable for the UK to accept Boris’s WA & PD and enter any kind of transition period on February 1st?
As I understand it, the WA commits us to a number of PERMANENT commitments that would deny us true autonomy in, for example, foreign and military policy (Article 129.6). These commitments could not be removed by us unilaterally without breaching international law.
As Farage says, the WA is an international treaty and, as such, the permanency and irreversibility of its provisions would be comparable, presumably, to the Treaty of Utrecht, under which in 1713 Spain ceded sovereignty of Gibraltar to the UK in perpetuity. Readers will recall that Spain had been defeated in war and was bankrupt.
Whether Boris took us out at the end of 2020 under WTO terms or not, the provisions of the WA would still be permanently enforced, unless the EU agreed otherwise.
The only way of avoiding that damaging scenario is to “crash out without a deal” on January 31st. Fanciful, no doubt, but, after the GE, could a new, pro-Brexit HoC – with or without the cooperation of the Lords – repeal the preventative legislation in time?
Thank you Chris Scott for your kind words on my efforts.
The military aspect of our entanglement with the EU is of course hugely important since the military is the cutting edge of State power and whoever controls it ultimately controls the State and all the people in it. This is why the EU is so keen on getting its own army, since it intends to become a single State.
Veterans for Britain, an organisation deserving a far higher profile, which includes some significant top brass, has been warning us about the instruments already accepted by Mrs May signing our armed forces up to amalgamation with the nascent EU army. These agreements are to go ahead irrespective of Brexit, and once completed will place us at the mercy of Brussels. Boris has given no sign whatsoever of wanting to reverse these atrocious decisions.
Nor does he intend to reform the infamous European Arrest Warrant. This is an obvious tool for tyranny, which places each and every one of us at the mercy of any “judicial authority” in Europe, empowered to have anyone in Britain arrested on no evidence, trussed up and transported abroad to lengthy imprisonment, with no right to any public hearing “pending investigation”.
.
I assume that Nigel has not included these items in his “two conditions” simply because he prefers to deal with matters one step at a time.
Once we are out of the jurisdiction of the EU, we can demand that these agreements be rescinded. If the other side refuses, then, as a Sovereign State we can rescind them unilaterally, under our unalterable constitutional precept that No Parliament Can Bind Its Successors. As things stand our own constitution is overridden by EU “law”, and our courts accept this.
Law requires enforcement agencies who can, with violence if necessary, enforce court orders on recalcitrants. Since there is no world government and no international enforcement agency, there is no such thing as “international law”. There are really only international agreements. The only penalties for breaking them are loss of reputation, or in the last resort, war.
Hugely frustrating! I am gagging to get going. There does appear to be some weight on the brake pedal but I would like to think that come mid-week the smoke will be coming off the tyres as the Brexit Campaigns waits for ‘chocks away’. Then, when the information gets about and confidence trick that is ‘The Deal’ starts being exposed, people will start saying “What the …?” Then we will see some red faces and the polls will be looking a bit different.
For my part I would fully agree with a lot of the commenters here. There is only one thing to do and that regardless of history, location, and perceived levels of opposition vote TBP. Not ANY of the other parties, including UKIP or other Brexit Parties. There is only one Party that stands any chance at all and that is TBP. Only if there is no TBP candidate then I will vote for whoever is against the EU even if it is Screaming Lord Sutch. It certainly will not be any member of the LibLabCon Party ever again!
I’m afraid I cannot vote for anyone likely to stand in my constituency.
They are all scum.
Why has our apparent “Leave” Prime Minister come back a “remain” after his trip to Brussels?
Follow the money.
Richard Tice is to stand in Hartlepool, but no others have been announced of whom I am aware. Perhaps TBP is in discussions with certain constituencies and PPCs, or perhaps they are simply holding fire in the hope that Boris will make some accommodation. Given the polls so far – the media brainwashing* is certainly working – and the fact that he would not have put up May’s deal reheated if he really wanted Brexit, that is a vain hope indeed.
*Sky’s Sophie Ridge this morning had a segment from Grimsby highlighting the plight of Grimsby. Great you thought, at last a focus on fishing. But they explained that the fishing industry’s problems dated back to the cod war with Iceland, and current sources of fish in their markets – Iceland, Faroes and Norway – are not in the EU, so no problem and let’s not blame the EU, hey?
Ah, Sophie Ridge – Sky’s answer to Old Mother Riley ( who the hell is that, I hear you say! Well, bloodywell find out on YouTube, you won’t regret it!) I can’t spoon-feed you ALL the time!
I well remember at the Saturday morning matinee in the 1950’s being terrified by an episode of Old Mother Riley being chased by some kind of tin robot. The terror is still there but the tin robot has been replaced by the EU/uncontrolled immigration/islam etc.
Accompanied now with the sadness with not only the realisation over the last few years that there are so many willing to allow our nation to perish, but also that some we thought were rock solid in opposing this, now apparently do not have the fortitude to do so. Trust Boris to deliver a true Brexit? No thanks.
So I would like to ask, was it that big of a deal that Gerard spoke to and supported TR? It seems to me that those that deserted Ukip for this reason find themselves in no man’s land.
We have a new reality to deal with and it looks very much like Brino, but I don’t feel like giving up.
I agree the Brexit Party website is devoid of any information as to the identity of the candidate standing in any given parliamentary constituency. However you could just bypass this and speak to whoever the Constituency Campaign Coordinator is. I am a Brexit Party CCC and we have already started our general election campaign as in the case of most other constituencies. Our Prospective Parliamentary Candidate (PPC) is fully involved in the campaign on a daily basis and we engaged upon the leafleting phase at the moment. This will be followed by the canvassing phase and so on. You could always become a ‘registered supporter of the Brexit Party and complete the volunteering section and you will be put in touch with either the PPC or CCC.
I’ve been going by this one which is well tucked away but seems to be genuine and reasonably up to date.
https://www.brexitparty2019.co.uk/candidates.php
It is patently obvious that Johnson is a Remainer.
That is what must be confirmed for the voters prior to them casting their vote.
Of course the problem there is that there are very few ‘Media’ voices who are carrying that message since most are controlled by Remainers.
It seems to me that the only way of getting any ‘oxygen’ for the Leavers is some popular uprising….violence in the streets…….to that end we must therefore enlist the help of those ‘rioters supreme’ – the local mosques.
If we can just convince the ‘mosque dwellers’ that Remaining will mean that the next Tory Government will be Editing the Koran or Hadith………..Leave may JUST stand a chance……….listen, I’m not Machiavelli, but I’m trying!
“…Marxist government with its Venezuelan-style economic policies and anti-semite prejudices and it will be a total nightmare…” Sounds as if it will feel, in effect, no different from what we’ll be getting under the EU, especially if the Vassalage Treaty is passed.
But I believe it would still be better than a Boris Deal.. America would probably pull us out of it yet again.
Even cancelling Art 50 would be better than Boris Deal. At least we would be equal to Rumania.
TG : is that a pun?
There are a number of things going on here.
First the Brexit party has not put up any MPs that I am are aware of yet. I phoned them up to be told they will be announced shortly. It’s hard to get behind somebody if you don’t know who it is you need get behind.
Talking of deafening silence, the election run-up is about four days old now, and no announcements, and no interviews – except opposition parties rubbishing the Brexit party. Even your article above Torquil, re-the new offer, was news to me. The only conversations I’ve had with people are ‘they just want out’. But it’s a dud deal because . . . ‘I just want out’.
For me, it is quite clear that Johnson is not going to get us out. May Treaty Mk 2. Johnson has turned down a pact not to stand against certain Conservative leave MPs, if the Brexit party is given a run at other seats unhindered. Just like the so-called negotiations with our masters, there comes a time when you stop talking and do what you said you were going to do.
Strong and stable part two – hung parliament, so be it.
Biscotte – Brexit putting up MP’s? In today’s political climate I don’t give a jot WHO is standing for TBP – they will get my vote even if Coco the Clown is the candidate – Boris is simply a well heeled opportunist and a second-rate comic to boot.
We are voting for a Principle – Freedom from the the EU and refusing to accept the prospects they have in store for us;
German and French Generals running our Army;
The continued commandeering of our fishing waters:
Taxation from Brussels:
European Court of Justice deciding on our Laws:
Restricted opportunities to export to the entire world markets:
Continued infiltration of Stateless Refugees:
The potential of Turkey blackmailing its way into the EU.
HAD ENOUGH? There’s more……………!
I realise I am preaching to the converted – But, Vote TBP and help to end the nightmare.