Fishing for Leave can understand many Brexiteer MPs point that the current deal now allows maneuverer towards an FTA and Future Relationship, one which can, in the long term, compensate for the dire Transition period in which the UK has to negotiate.
A Transition where the UK “leaves” the EU but in re-obeying ALL EU law for the Transition it is merely another extension under membership minus.
HOWEVER, we implore those adhering to the idea above to consider the following.
The Government Has Lost Parliament
The plan above is predicated on the government being able to bang the table for a good deal.
With the Letwin amendment as the latest installment of Remainers running parliament, it is clear the government has lost control of the legislative and a majority. It is therefore impossible in our view for the government to strongly negotiate when a remain parliament can and will hobble the government – particular at the behest of the EU.
The view in reply to this seems to be that a General Election would give the government a majority and mandate. However, we see no chance Remainers would vote for a GE. They have a position of strength controlling parliament and deadlocking the government. They know the public would shred them at a GE.
Can anyone honestly see Remainers doing anything but clinging on until the General Election mandated by the Fixed Term Parliament Act to be held in 2022? By the time of this GE the UK can be pushed from a poor Political Declaration to an even worse Future Relationship formalised and bound under an international treaty.
Sovereignty Clause Is 2nd Factortame
We note and applaud John Redwood and Sir Bill Cash good questions to the PM, highlighting the damage that could be done to British industry during the Transition. With the UK mandated by the Withdrawal Agreement to obey all EU law for the Transition period the EU will be free to impose detrimental legislation to impinge upon or hurt British industry.
In response both MPs were assured by the PM of a Sovereignty clause being legislated for. BUT this is disingenuous by the PM. Domestic legislation CANNOT override the obligations of an international treaty.
This was proven by the infamous #Factortame case. When Mrs Thatcher’s Merchant Shipping Act 1988 sought to impose strong ‘Economic Link’ conditions of majority ownership of British fishing vessels so as to curb EU owned but UK registered ‘Flagships’ appropriating UK fishing entitlement.
This Act to protect UK interests – essentially a sovereignty clause – was found to breech the EU Treaties provisions on freedom of establishment. The ECJ overruled our domestic legislation proving that parliament was no longer sovereign.
A similar sovereignty clause to protect British interests now would similarly be a breach of this new treaties provisions to obey all EU law for the Transition, particularly under the provision of ‘good faith’.
Were the UK to say it would not enforce EU rules that were onerous on British business it would be in breach of this new treaty and it’s provision of ‘good faith’ – that the UK must faithfully enforce the treaty and therefore what the EU decrees.
With this new treaty to be adjudicated by the ECJ – one of the first international treaties to be adjudicated by one parties court (only found with a country defeated in war) – they will find in the EUs favour every time.
Consequently, the entire political strategy of swallowing something bad, whilst trying to protect British industry from it, to then hope to claw back something good later, is based on a political situation that doesn’t (and isn’t likely) to exist.
This DOESN’T “Get Brexit Done”
This brings in the electoral consideration at play of being seen to “get Brexit done”. This was the same logic Mrs May tried to use to stampede everyone to her deal.
Yes, the public want to see Brexit – but not a Brexit In Name Only and further horlicks made of it.
Yes, under this deal we will officially “leave” the EU. HOWEVER, we sign up to another EU treaty where we re-obey all EU law for the Transition. Essentially, we have membership minus.
The PM assures it will only be the short transition until 2021, and that he wouldn’t trigger the provisions to extend it a until 2023. The chances of the EU negotiating any FTA by the end of 2020 is remote. The chance of a remain parliament not forcing the government to extend is slim. The PM won’t get the option.
Essentially all we are surrendering;
– An eye watering Thirty-Nine billion pounds.
– Northern Ireland being prized towards a United Ireland under EU rule.
– To risk British industries being afflicted with detrimental legislation during the Transition.
Yet all we will find is another “cliff edge” at the end of it. All whilst a remain parliament refuses a General Election and hobbles the government at every turn at the behest of the EU.
We will see the government forced to concede further as the UK is pushed into a bad Future Relationship which the Political Declaration sketches out.
One where we must have a ‘level playing field’ of ‘regulatory alignment’ (Para.21) , tax harmonisation to avoid UK competitiveness (Para.77) and provisions to see UK ‘associate membership’ of EU policies from fishing to defence (Para.118).
The above is NOT Brexit by anyone’s measure. The public may appreciate the immediate fanfare of “getting Brexit done” – but when the full implications of a deal that’s been bounced upon them for 48hrs hits home there will be rage. Particularly at Brexiteers for letting it happen.
Launching a ship that is fundamentally holed – and where some of the workers on board are deliberately sabotaging it with more holes at the behest of a rival shipyard – just because there is a launch date to meet isn’t a good strategy. People may cheer the launch but when the ship immediately starts to sink there will be cold fury at those who let it happen.
Wait For A GE To Deliver A Genuine Brexit
We implore that it is far wiser to take the extension Remainers own the guilt for having pushed the government to it.
To then await a General Election and campaign on a clean Brexit manifesto which has which won huge and majority vote share for every party that has advocated it. Parliament has caused this deadlock and therefore we feel it best to sit tight, win a Brexit majority parliament and then start again.
Were an extension set till the day after the General Election the government could use the next two year until then to thoroughly prepare for a clean Brexit on WTO terms and leave the day after the Election as Article 50 expires.
Even if Remainers force a fixed referendum before then, no parliament binds its successor and a government with a mandate to leave cleanly can do so. Just as a remain govt of “national unity” could revoke Article 50 now with no mandate should it usurp the government.
We therefore MPs to consider the above and ask other colleagues to do so too before their desperation to “get Brexit done” sinks them and the country too.