Fishing for Leave can understand many Brexiteer MPs point that the current deal now allows maneuverer towards an FTA and Future Relationship, one which can, in the long term, compensate for the dire Transition period in which the UK has to negotiate.
A Transition where the UK “leaves” the EU but in re-obeying ALL EU law for the Transition it is merely another extension under membership minus.
HOWEVER, we implore those adhering to the idea above to consider the following.
The Government Has Lost Parliament
The plan above is predicated on the government being able to bang the table for a good deal.
With the Letwin amendment as the latest installment of Remainers running parliament, it is clear the government has lost control of the legislative and a majority. It is therefore impossible in our view for the government to strongly negotiate when a remain parliament can and will hobble the government – particular at the behest of the EU.
The view in reply to this seems to be that a General Election would give the government a majority and mandate. However, we see no chance Remainers would vote for a GE. They have a position of strength controlling parliament and deadlocking the government. They know the public would shred them at a GE.
Can anyone honestly see Remainers doing anything but clinging on until the General Election mandated by the Fixed Term Parliament Act to be held in 2022? By the time of this GE the UK can be pushed from a poor Political Declaration to an even worse Future Relationship formalised and bound under an international treaty.
Sovereignty Clause Is 2nd Factortame
We note and applaud John Redwood and Sir Bill Cash good questions to the PM, highlighting the damage that could be done to British industry during the Transition. With the UK mandated by the Withdrawal Agreement to obey all EU law for the Transition period the EU will be free to impose detrimental legislation to impinge upon or hurt British industry.
In response both MPs were assured by the PM of a Sovereignty clause being legislated for. BUT this is disingenuous by the PM. Domestic legislation CANNOT override the obligations of an international treaty.
This was proven by the infamous #Factortame case. When Mrs Thatcher’s Merchant Shipping Act 1988 sought to impose strong ‘Economic Link’ conditions of majority ownership of British fishing vessels so as to curb EU owned but UK registered ‘Flagships’ appropriating UK fishing entitlement.
This Act to protect UK interests – essentially a sovereignty clause – was found to breech the EU Treaties provisions on freedom of establishment. The ECJ overruled our domestic legislation proving that parliament was no longer sovereign.
A similar sovereignty clause to protect British interests now would similarly be a breach of this new treaties provisions to obey all EU law for the Transition, particularly under the provision of ‘good faith’.
Were the UK to say it would not enforce EU rules that were onerous on British business it would be in breach of this new treaty and it’s provision of ‘good faith’ – that the UK must faithfully enforce the treaty and therefore what the EU decrees.
With this new treaty to be adjudicated by the ECJ – one of the first international treaties to be adjudicated by one parties court (only found with a country defeated in war) – they will find in the EUs favour every time.
Consequently, the entire political strategy of swallowing something bad, whilst trying to protect British industry from it, to then hope to claw back something good later, is based on a political situation that doesn’t (and isn’t likely) to exist.
This DOESN’T “Get Brexit Done”
This brings in the electoral consideration at play of being seen to “get Brexit done”. This was the same logic Mrs May tried to use to stampede everyone to her deal.
Yes, the public want to see Brexit – but not a Brexit In Name Only and further horlicks made of it.
Yes, under this deal we will officially “leave” the EU. HOWEVER, we sign up to another EU treaty where we re-obey all EU law for the Transition. Essentially, we have membership minus.
The PM assures it will only be the short transition until 2021, and that he wouldn’t trigger the provisions to extend it a until 2023. The chances of the EU negotiating any FTA by the end of 2020 is remote. The chance of a remain parliament not forcing the government to extend is slim. The PM won’t get the option.
Essentially all we are surrendering;
– An eye watering Thirty-Nine billion pounds.
– Northern Ireland being prized towards a United Ireland under EU rule.
– To risk British industries being afflicted with detrimental legislation during the Transition.
Yet all we will find is another “cliff edge” at the end of it. All whilst a remain parliament refuses a General Election and hobbles the government at every turn at the behest of the EU.
We will see the government forced to concede further as the UK is pushed into a bad Future Relationship which the Political Declaration sketches out.
One where we must have a ‘level playing field’ of ‘regulatory alignment’ (Para.21) , tax harmonisation to avoid UK competitiveness (Para.77) and provisions to see UK ‘associate membership’ of EU policies from fishing to defence (Para.118).
The above is NOT Brexit by anyone’s measure. The public may appreciate the immediate fanfare of “getting Brexit done” – but when the full implications of a deal that’s been bounced upon them for 48hrs hits home there will be rage. Particularly at Brexiteers for letting it happen.
Launching a ship that is fundamentally holed – and where some of the workers on board are deliberately sabotaging it with more holes at the behest of a rival shipyard – just because there is a launch date to meet isn’t a good strategy. People may cheer the launch but when the ship immediately starts to sink there will be cold fury at those who let it happen.
Wait For A GE To Deliver A Genuine Brexit
We implore that it is far wiser to take the extension Remainers own the guilt for having pushed the government to it.
To then await a General Election and campaign on a clean Brexit manifesto which has which won huge and majority vote share for every party that has advocated it. Parliament has caused this deadlock and therefore we feel it best to sit tight, win a Brexit majority parliament and then start again.
Were an extension set till the day after the General Election the government could use the next two year until then to thoroughly prepare for a clean Brexit on WTO terms and leave the day after the Election as Article 50 expires.
Even if Remainers force a fixed referendum before then, no parliament binds its successor and a government with a mandate to leave cleanly can do so. Just as a remain govt of “national unity” could revoke Article 50 now with no mandate should it usurp the government.
We therefore MPs to consider the above and ask other colleagues to do so too before their desperation to “get Brexit done” sinks them and the country too.
ROAD TO FREEDOM, GERRARD BATTEN, 2014. Vote for Brexit Party now of course, if we could.
Well said the fishermen! Their particular predicament will be dire with Boris’s awful Act of Surrender, yet rather than just talk about that, they are taking here a general overview to stress how it will be dire for the country in general.
Imagine if, under the old Soviet system, say the Ukraine had decided to Leave the Soviet Union (actually officially allowed under the Soviet constitution!). And had reached an “agreement” with Moscow, where by the Ukraine would no longer be a Soviet Republic, but it would have to remain a member of the Warsaw Pact.
In the West we used to call Warsaw Pact countries “Soviet satellite states”. Their degree of “independence” from Moscow was shown when Soviet tanks went in to crush Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968.
Boris will make us an “EU SATELLITE”. This I think gives the exact measure of what will happen, better and more graphically than “associate membership”.
He is even confirming May’s EU-UK military amalgamation measures and the European Arrest Warrant, so they will have all the hardware they need to keep us in line.
Whilst I am waiting for UKIP to regroup I have no choice but to vote for the Brexit Party as this and many other articles have clearly stated the bleeding obvious. The EU will implode and I don’t want to contribute to their bankruptcy. We have been lied to enough.
I’d love to see us fully out, fully free by negotiation,
but if it has to be by something more robust, it looks to me to be more and more to be so,
then, if ’twere done then best ’twere done quickly.
We are a people in bondage
Living in anguish and doubt
Our freedom is being eroded
We whisper when we ought to shout
Invaded oppressed and derided
Our Nationhood taken by stealth
Impoverished by those who are stealing
Our culture, beliefs and our wealth
Children who once played in safety
Must now be protected and watched
For fear that their lives will be sullied
Perverted by evil unmatched
Oh how did our proud lawful nation
Become so degraded and weak
Why did we allow those who rule us
To make us so fearful to speak
Defence of the realm is their duty
A trust that is enshrined in law
Subversion is treason so heinous
Betrayal we must not ignore
Throw off this yoke of enslavement
Recover our freedom and voice
Take back our country and culture
For in truth there is no other choice
Others now watching our progress
Are willing us on to succeed
Whose countries are likewise dictated
By tyranny conquest and greed
Thus joined as we are in our spirit
With others in far diverse lands
We must utilise every endeavour
The remedy lies in our hands
I`m not usually much for poetry Frederica, but that one touches a spot and by golly says the lot!
Thankyou. I wrote it before the referendum. I was angry then but I am incandescent now!
When will it get through the thick skulls of we Brits that the only way is OUT.
And who has been iquite alone advocating this and has done since we found the ‘relationship’ wanting?
Well – it was Nigel Farage of course. No ‘ifs’ or ‘buts’ about it.
So the common sense and logical way for our electorate to go is The Brexit Party…..’warts an’ all’…..
Brits! Gird your loins…….the games’ afoot……..we will NEVER get this chance again.
Thanks for this article. It makes it crystal clear that a suitable deal cannot be negotiated while the UK remains in the EU. The only place we can negotiate from a position of strength is from outside the EU. The “No Deal” is the “Go Deal”. The last 1000+ days have taught us that. The edge of a cliff is a signal, you will be injured in the fall and may not be able to climb back ever!!
Whatever happens we must try to totally destroy the Tory Party. Don’t worry about threats of Corbyn or the LibDems, we can deal with them later. BUT WE MUST DESTROY THE TORIES.
Alan – the whole party system is faulty. A party exists to maintain the continuation of the Party and will employ whatever it takes to do so. A Parliamentary candidate who is backed by his party cannot also represent his constituents. (Think ‘dog with two masters’). One or the other but not both. Voting for a party means giving approval to the whole party manifesto and once we’ve voted we get to live with the consequences – warts and all.
On the other hand if a constituency would nominate and vote for an independent to represent the constituents the Party is clearly redundant. I recommend the Candour writings of Ben Greene to amplify these thoughts, especially in his “The British Constitution and the Corruption of Parliament” ISBN 978-0-9932885-8-6 available from http://www.candour.org.uk
Thanks for the well reasoned argument.
This deal is like getting into a life boat from the Titanic, then tying the life boat to the doomed sinking ships railings. Just in the hope that the ship stays afloat when the bow is already 30 feet under we water.
This is one big Tory con, unfortunately a lot of people are being taken for fools.
There is either Brexit or no Brexit, and this ‘Deal’ is ‘No Brexit’. What happens when the EU ban zero rated VAT items? Food, books and children’s clothes will increase in price, and there is nothing we can do. We need no transition period, we have had 3 and a half years to be ready. If you are not prepared by now, you don’t want to be prepared and it’s a fudge.
The establishment want to make the UK defacto Associate members of the EU. Park us there, then easily re-join in a few years. They know if we leave WTO they could never convince the people to re-join.
Johnson’s deal is a trap.
Thank you Fishing for Leave for this timely intervention. Fortunately, those who have commented so far have not been taken in by the Boris/Maybot treaty scam.
You have succinctly depth-charged those who argue that once we leave with this treaty, we will be at liberty to suit ourselves. Not so! And once again, as in the Maastricht treaty debacle, we see the Tory rebels – now termed the Spartans, signing up to the scam to save the party. No Thermopylae for them, no dying in a ditch or back-to-wall defence of the nation. As Russell Hicks once said on his poster van ” YOU COULDN’T TRUST A TORY TO DELIVER A PIZZA”
John Locke. Your assessment is Completely correct, John, and I agree with every aspect of what you say.
This dreadful ‘great deal’ must never ever be allowed to pass !
I think logic left the house of commons a long time ago. Our crackpot MPs are now operating on emotions and wishful thinking. I am so disappointed in the ERG words fail me.
I’m fed up of extension after extension; as we have seen before that is the way of the EU. As for the statement ” only found with a country defeated in war” then a declaration of war might be the only way to get us out if that carries on.
Time is against us with the remainers numbers being increased year by year from the indoctrinated school leavers / graduates.
I seem to recall Camoron returning from some EU meeting saying this is war when he wasn`t getting his own way.
Isn`t diplomacy said to be “war by other means”
The EU are certainly making war on us (aided ably by our own home grown Quizlings!)