For two years Lode Desmet, a Belgian documentary filmmaker, filmed the members of the Brexit Steering Committee of the Parliament of the European Union, whose Chairman was Guy Verhofstadt, another Belgian. Lode’s documentary tells the story of their negotiation of the EU’s Withdrawal Agreement & Political Declaration with the United Kingdom under Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon. That WA & PD was agreed by the European Council on the 25th November 2018. Prime Minister Mrs May said it was a full Brexit, but it was defeated for the third time in the House of Commons on Friday 29th March 2019. That Friday should have been Brexit Day. It was also the day that Lode’s film ends.
Lode’s film is called “Brexit: Behind Closed Doors” and was shown on BBC4 TV on 8th & 9th May 2019. One of Guy Verhofstadt’s team can be heard exulting “we finally turned them into a colony, and that was our plan from the first moment”. That gloating remark was about what the WA & PD of November 2018 would do to Britain. And it still can turn Britain into a colony of the EU now.
Of course our new prime minister Boris Johnson has negotiated his New WA & PD last October, but it is the same in all fundamentals as Mrs May’s WA & PD, except that the Protocol on Northern Ireland (the Backstop) has been altered. The new Protocol moves the border between the EU & UK from a land border between Northern Ireland & the Irish Republic, to a sea border between Ireland and Britain, the Irish Sea. That effectively surrenders Northern Ireland to Dublin and Brussels, a change that lost Boris Johnson’s government the support of Irish Protestant MPs in the Westminster Parliament. Boris Johnson has merely fallen more deeply into the trap laid in Article 50.
Under the New WA & PD Britain will enter the Transition Period of withdrawal from membership of the European Union on 31st January 2020. Britain will lose any vote or veto in the various EU Councils of Ministers, also in the European Council and in the Parliament of the EU. Indeed Britain loses all participation in all EU bodies in the transition period (Article 7 of the New Withdrawal Agreement). The European Council, the council of the leaders of the countries inside the EU, will be free to pass any past proposed EU laws that Britain vetoed or helped vote down before (Articles 4, 87, 89 & 127).
The withdrawal process in the transition period will be governed by a Joint Committee which will overrule the elected British government and Parliament (Articles 164 to 166) and will itself be governed by the Court of Justice of the EU (Article 174). Anybody can read it online, clause 2 of Article 166 says that the decisions of the Joint Committee will be “binding” on the Union (the EU) & the UK. Could words be clearer? This Joint EU-UK Committee will operate “confidentially” in private (clause 1 of rule 10 of Annex VIII). Britain will become a captive colony of the EU for as long as the CJEU wishes the transition period to last.
All it will take for that to happen is for the EU side of the Joint Committee to propose any extension of the transition period. If the UK side of the JC disputes that proposal, then the Court of Justice of the EU will decide the outcome of that dispute (Article 174). And the Treaty of Rome has committed the CJEU, like all other agencies in the federal European project, to work towards “the ever closer union” of Europe.
Article 168 stops the UK side from appealing to international arbitration outside the EU. That the Withdrawal Agreement is considered to be part of EU law but not of international law, is shown when it gives supremacy to EU law (Article 127). And by refusing any appeal to international law the New WA & PD relegates the UK to colonial status within the EU.
Treaties between sovereign states are part of international law, but the Withdrawal Agreement/Treaty accepts that it is an agreement within EU law between a sovereign state (the EU) and one of its subordinate territorial regions (the UK). A sign of this is that all EU officials are granted legal immunity from British criminal laws, taxation and regulations (Articles 101, 104 & 106 – 116).
The idea that Article 50 negotiations were a path to Britain’s escape from EU rule was nonsense from the start. All negotiations with the EU are a total waste of time, if you really want to leave (they’re not if you don’t). The EU will never agree to Britain leaving as an independent and self-governing state. Britain can only do that without the EU’s agreement.
Why bother to negotiate a Free Trade Agreement with the EU anyway, when the rest of the world, happily outside the EU, trades with it under the General Agreements on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)? We see goods from outside the EU in our shops all the time. The GATT rounds of trade negotiations have been going on since the late 1940’s, far longer than our Brexit trade negotiations have been, so far.
The Tories won the last general election with their slogan “Get Brexit Done”. But as people realise that the New Withdrawal Agreement is a BRINO (Brexit in name only), public anger at its betrayal of the 2016 referendum result will grow. The popularity of the Tory party and Tory government will plummet. (The popularity of a party in favour of a No Deal Brexit, the only Brexit possible, will grow).
How can Boris Johnson and the Tories avoid the wrath of the voters, which is sure to come?
OK, so I can be seen in the camp of the Optimists ! – This is how I figure it all out. ….. PM Johnson needed a clear majority in the Commons, and the people provided him with a substantial majority. – The people now expect a full and total Brexit from the EU ! – Voters did not suddenly become Conservative members, and a great many votes were given only as a loan ! – If Boris lets the people down in their expectations, then he and his Party will be out of power for some time. – The Tories know this only too well !
At the end of this month we are out, although negotiations, probably with some danger will commence. – Too many connects will continue for us to be free of the EU,- ( A true state of BRINO ), but the end date has been published as the end of 2020 ! ….. Boris has his words to keep to, and the EU are caught between financial common sense and their Super State requirements. – It will be interesting to see how they jump on this, as their businesses could lose the very large market, represented by our country ! – They will lose our vast membership money, so the danger this year is to the ‘Smash and Grab’ approach for one huge severance payment, and Boris would be a fool to let that become a negotiation item in future Trade as they are unconnected items !
There are other important items, like the Scottish threat and the Northern Ireland problem, that will be best handled as a United Kingdom. These two items should have no negotiation inputs at all, and handled as domestic arrangements for the UK only. – Boris should ask himself just who do the EU think they are ? – Perhaps a better question would be, who do the EU think we are ? – Negotiations are doomed if one party is not sure of its own sovereignty ! – Admittedly I am an Optimist, but I consider it wise to support the leader wholeheartedly, right up to the moment that he turns tail and runs away. – It is then that he needs to fear his own people rather than the enemy !
1972 to 2020 = 48yrs. This means that only people that have been with government longer than 48 years have any
experience of running a sovereign country.
The rest have only experience of being puppets of a dominant power, which makes them unfit to hold office.
As the current status equals a BRINO, it does not make Britain a Sovereign Country and thus betrays the referendum result.
“Trouble Ahead” is putting it mildly!!
Perhaps the Counties and or constituencies should go for UDI (Universal Declaration of Independence)???
This would at least rock the Boat a bit!!!
Excellent points David.
100% agree with the article. Why do so many formerly reliable Brexiteers accept this Vassalage Treaty Mk II as Brexit? People like the ERG, Nigel Farage, the Brexit Party, etc.? The EU will punish the UK as much as it can over the next 12 months (and beyond) — legal and economic warfare in all but name — and then “Brexit” will be blamed. And the UK has to pay £39bn/£65bn/whatever the EU decides for this privilege. Madness. This treaty should be disowned, so that when all the bad things that will happen as a result do happen, the blame falls where it belongs — on the traitors that delivered vassalage rather than Brexit, rather than on Brexit itself.
The ERG are only interested in their careers which now depend on Boris.The rest have been told by Farage that we are leaving and believe him.
Was Farage always a stalking horse rather than a true Brexiteer? I wonder…
There is not the slightest positive hint that we might leave. No MOD orders, for smaller patrol aircraft or boats, No preparation by the border Force,No orders for software or anything for NI.or anyone else like Border Force. Absolutely no movement on UK subsidies on Agriculture.. Nothing. No movement on Energy supplies Nothing With everyday the probability of betrayal comes closer with no hint of preperation. Only exhortations for others to be ready. Hot Air.
I feel for BMW and its UK investments and its belief in EU words I feel for Nissan, Toyota, and Honda All happening and Electric cars. as well, All still hoping Mrs May didn’t lie. When that’s all she ever did.. No hint to foreign investors about this ….A Messof heroic proportions But politicians wont see this of course
None of the signs are good.
And this mornong Bercley said HS2 ( Europes baby ) Would continue. Another obvious sign of the remain stain.
As I keep saying . MPs, Civil Servants, Local bureaucrats etc.seem unable to See the difference between Temporary Building and Railway workers and , workers in permanent businesses.. Opening a new station will be destabilising.locally.
I would repeat, I have no dislike of HS2 If it went from Inverness to Cornwall .. Fine….., Just its waste, its general uselessness, its foolishness, Its false hopes, the confidence trick of it , the fact we are not allowed to use our own industry, Its LONDON uber Alles. The reward given to Corruption, As an engineer, I really cannot see the point, other than EU power. So, it is reward.
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I won’t predict the final result, but if we were simply a colony then we wouldn’t be allowed our own trade deals, or divergence from EU rules and regulations. I don’t altogether trust politicians, but I trust Boris is aiming for full independence (eventually). Many politicians are pushing for us to leave all EU institutions, so the signs are very different to the doom mongering shown above. We can tolerate 11 months of this, but any extension will see the electorate rise against UK politicians.
To me Shirley, that is our main ray of hope. If Brexit is a success , Boris will be venerated for 50 years. So, it is in his interest to make a short term, medium term and long term success etc.of Britain. slow but steady tax reductionsplus Intelligent changes to Unions to make them more powerful at the same time as reducing their use as a vehicle for careless and self destructive ambition.
As Shirley writes ” if we were simply a colony then we wouldn’t be allowed our own trade deals, or divergence from EU rules and regulations” ……
Well, in the New Political Declaration, the paragraphs 17 & 21 of Part 2 “Economic Partnership” make sure we won’t be “allowed our own trade deals, or divergence from EU rules and regulations.” Paragraph 17 talks of “ensuring a level playing field for open and fair competition”. Paragraph 21 talks of “deep regulatory and customs cooperation”.
And Britain won’t be allowed to indulge in “any harmful tax practices” (that is cutting tax below EU levels to compete with EU companies). Just read paragraph 77 at the end of Part 2 “Economic Partnership” ( which commits Britain to preventing “unfair competitive advantage” and “harmful tax practices”).
In answer to Ralph Prothero’s article. ‘Britain can never leave the EU under Article 50, that was a nonsense from the start.’ True. ‘The only way Britain can leave the EU as an independent Nation State is to leave without EU consent.’ True.
So isn’t that exactly what we will do on or before 31/12/20 when no Trade agreement has been reached ?
All those votes and positions we have lost after 31/1/20 – were they actually of any use Ralph?
Ok. I agree that during this transition period we are simply ‘a colony’ of The Evil Empire. In the end we have to leave without their consent. Think back to the break up of the USSR. Wasn’t Moscow’s hold on it’s empire stronger than Brussels hold on us? Well I suppose it could come to war. Presumably tanks could roll through the channel tunnel. Somehow though I do not think so.
In fact I think you are being far too pessimistic.
Of course EU were gloating during May’s regime. They had every right to gloat. They HAD won. That was until some in our HoC, even then, voted her down and brought her down. We now have a very different HoC and the Lords have very little power. So whatever the WA and it’s wotsit – protocol? says, the table is now turned. Britain can and will get out.
It is still possible though that in fact Brussels will be forced to see reason and agree to let us go with a ‘no strings’ deal. Simply because they will suffer more than us without.
As Pauline says “Think back to the break up of the USSR”. In spring 1990 when the break up of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics was imminent, the Supreme Soviet of the USSR passed a law about the procedure by which a republic might withdraw from the USSR.
That law said that after a referendum victory for withdrawal, the republic withdrawing was to notify the Supreme Soviet, then would follow a “transition period” of not more than 5 years of negotiations, during which the law & constitution of the USSR would continue in force in the withdrawing Republic. Seventeen years later a similar withdrawal procedure appeared in Article 50 of the EU Treaty of Lisbon of 2007. (In so many ways the EU Constitution is similar to the former Soviet Union’s constitution. )
But the leaders of the former Soviet republics refused to follow the “transition period” procedure laid down in Soviet law. Instead they unilaterally asserted their unconditional independence from the Soviet Union and its laws, and in two years all fifteen of the former Soviet republics had left the USSR.
In contrast Theresa May followed the Article 50 procedure, and the transition period hadn’t even started when she stepped down more than three years after 23rd June 2016. Now Boris Johnson has signed the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration, and the transition period is due to begin next month. In this forthcoming transition period Britain will be reduced from membership of the EU, to being a colony of the EU.
I hope the EU DOES go for the extreme demands its most fervent disciples want. That way, we can tear the whole damn’ lot up; WA, PD, Lisbon Treaty, the lot & not one nation outside of the EU will think less of the UK for doing so.
The EU is nothing but a vehicle for the likes of Soros to continue making £billions whilst telling the Euroserfs that equality & social justice (whatever the Hell that’s supposed to be) are just around the corner.
Very True Mike. It’s what we should have done from the start. Everything from 1972 onwards that successive governments have agreed to. Still there’s more than one way to get there.
Some Nations INSIDE the EU will cheer for us as well as outside.
” A good Trade Deal ” ? Trade, as with anything , can be weaponised. ( China )
We have bought a political slogan.in exchange for what …………?
Trade deals are OK, A bit. Basically they’re a Political slogan. But secondarily protection vs expoitation’ Followed by mountains of laws..
Trade is price,delivery convenience etc. Politics can warp these but shouldn’t.
So The WA, as it is, without change, will become occupation.by a foreign power.. In exchange for nothing much .
That’s why your grandad died son.
The Tories have several years and total power thanks to Farage who donated it to them. By the next election they’ll have another pack of lies for Farage to fall for.
Protecting the interests of the City of London will trump any other consideration in the forthcoming negotiations. That is the first unwritten law of the Tory party. The Tory party is a business funded by globalist corporations and super wealthy individuals and it is to their interests it will principally serve.
I don’t think the tory party is worried about the wrath of the electorate at all. Not one jot. On the contrary the tory party and its closset EU remoaning remainiacs are quite pleased with themselves. Still The worst deal in history.
You are quite correct Matt and there is now no effective opposition in parliament, it remains to be seen what and if the general population / voters will say or do, I suspect most have moved on from Brexit to the Royals soap opera.
Effective opposition Norman? Did you prefer the last one ??
Opps! Have no idea when the ‘now’ slipped in!
“All negotiations with the EU are a total waste of time..” Never were truer words written.
Negotiations are only a waste of time if you really want to leave the EU. But they are really useful if you really want to stay in the EU and crush the vote of 23rd June 2016 for national liberation.
Negotiations of the terms of Britain’s departure will begin in the transition period next month on the Joint Committee. The EU side of the Joint Committee will have the upper hand through the CJEU’s resolution of disputes with the UK side. And the Joint Committee’s decisions are binding on Britain.
In any case the terms of the WA & PD make true independence for the UK impossible.