Written by ‘Classical Liberal’

 

The mainstream media constantly tell us that Black and ethnic minority (BAME) communities are diverse in their values and beliefs as the rest of the population. Yet, BAME voters overwhelmingly support the Labour Party over the Tories.

About three-quarters vote Labour, while fewer than one in five votes Conservative, according to the 2017 British Election Study (BES). Unless the pattern changes, this is a headache for the Tories, which could worsen in the long term as the non-white population increases.

According to former Prime Minister David Cameron’s strategist and pollster, Lord Cooper of Windrush, the Tories’ challenge is stark.

Cooper told Professor Rosie Campbell of King’s College London: ‘When we looked at all the different variables that determine how people vote – policies, issues, leaders, party brands, all the rest of it – we found that the single strongest driver of not voting Conservative was not being white’.

There are some differences between different ethnic groups. Still, the overall picture is one of a strong preference for Labour, agrees Professor Maria Sobolewska, an expert on voting behaviour from the University of Manchester.

It can be challenging to obtain reliable data showing how ethnic minorities vote as half live in only three cities – London, Birmingham and Manchester – meaning that a UK-wide survey includes disproportionately few such voters.

The 2017 BES suggested that 76% of non-white voters backed Labour, while only 17% voted Conservative. The 2017 BES is based on a survey of 1,061 respondents who voted, of whom eighty-four were from ethnic minorities.

The most systematic study was the 2010 Ethnic Minority British Election Study of 2,700 voters, which suggested 66% supported the Labour Party, while 16% voted Conservative and 14% Liberal Democrat.

This is something of a problem for the Conservative Party as, in recent years, it has made significant efforts to increase its appeal.

David Cameron made the Parliamentary party more diverse – raising the number of Conservative ethnic minority MPs from zero in 2001 to seventeen in 2015. He also asked MPs to focus more on the needs of different communities.

Theresa May continued these efforts by commissioning a racial disparity audit to look at inequalities in the UK.

Under May, the number of Tory ethnic minority MPs rose again to nineteen. They included the first person from an ethnic minority to become home secretary – Sajid Javid.

Furthermore, many of the ethnic minority political activists Campbell spoke to stressed the importance of aspiration within their communities.

It is an ethic that many consider complementary to Conservative values. Ola Kolade, a twenty-seven-year-old Tory activist in Croydon, told Campbell: ‘The Conservative Party have a positive message about opportunity, about ambition, and this is why I stood up last year and said I’m not going to be a shy Tory any more – I’m a proud Tory’.

What then is going wrong with the Conservative Party strategy?

In Campbell’s interviews with Conservative activists, a number suggested that ethnic minority voters had given the Tories a wide berth because of historical – and not so historical – events.

Lord Cooper believes the party’s reputation has been damaged. By everything from Enoch Powell’s anti-immigration Rivers of Blood Speech to Norman Tebbit’s suggestion that Britons of South Asian origin are not sufficiently integrated if they support the India or Pakistan cricket team rather than England.

Also, more recent events such as the Windrush Scandal, when some migrants from Commonwealth countries were miscategorised as illegal immigrants, and Boris Johnson’s comments comparing Muslim women wearing Burkas to letterboxes make this issue of perception an ongoing challenge.

According to the most recent Census, in 2011, 14% of the UK population are from ethnic minority backgrounds. Still, projections suggest that by 2051 between 20% and 30% of the UK population will be non-white.

And the places where ethnic minorities live are shifting – away from traditional Labour heartlands in cities to suburban areas and marginal seats, where elections are often decided.

‘Once the ethnic minority population of a constituency reaches 30%… it becomes almost impossible for [the Conservatives] to win it’, says Lord Cooper.

‘In 1987 there were no constituencies in the UK with 30% or more ethnic minority populations, but it has been estimated that by 2022, the next election… there could be as many as 120’.

Thus, in the words of Lord Cooper, a point may come when ‘there are not enough old white people in the country for there to be a Conservative government anymore’.

If BAME voters are unlikely to vote Conservative, they are even more unlikely to vote UKIP or any other new party that might appeal to the ‘silent majority’.

Suppose the only way Labour can beat the Tories is by courting the BAME vote. In that case, Labour will increasingly follow a BLM agenda, become ever more PC, and continue to ignore its traditional supporters – the white working-class.

This means that, as time passes and the BAME population in the UK increases, the UK is increasingly likely to be governed by governments who treat the ‘silent majority’ as second-class citizens in their own country.

Unless, of course, the ‘red wall’ stays ‘blue’. Sometimes we don’t vote for who we want. We vote against those we don’t want. And any Tory who is willing to signal in a dog-whistle fashion that they support the ‘silent majority’ and don’t want immigrants is better than a Corbynista who makes it abundantly clear that they despise all that the ‘silent majority’ stands for. Tory toffs don’t care for the likes of me. But they will do me a lot less harm than Labour would.

Indeed, Boris Johnson has many flaws both as a Prime Minister and as a human being. Still, as long as he makes jokes about Muslim women wearing burkas looking like letterboxes, I know that at least he understands my views on immigration and will vote for him. If someone like David Davis – a self-made millionaire who grew up on a council estate in South London and served in the SAS TA – were to replace entitled Old Etonian Johnson, I would not shed a tear for his passing. Even if you’re a lifelong Labour voter and the idea of voting for a bunch of Tory toffs makes your flesh crawl. Voting Conservative just a few times may be the only way to convince Labour that it needs to stop all of this woke nonsense – and reconnect with its traditional supporters. Otherwise, Labour will continue to take the ‘silent majority’ for granted.

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