Not ‘essential’ …
Over the weekend an important government document came to light – details below – but there were also ‘interventions’ from the usual suspects. Together with this morning’s CoronaVirus articles there’s one diagnosis we can make already: this whole, unprecedented Lockdown mess has been and is driven by the MSM and Whitehall Mandarins.
But firstly, readers of RemainCentral were presented with a beautiful reminder that Remain is alive and kicking, CV-19 Lockdown or not. The headline now reads “Public wants Boris Johnson to delay trade talks as coronavirus halts work on Brexit” (link, paywalled) – yesterday morning it was “The People” want a delay. I think I better start taking screenshots, given the rash of post-publication editing now taking place in the MSM! This ‘demand’ was based on a poll:
“A Focaldata poll, commissioned by the campaign groups Best for Britain and Hope Not Hate, found that 64% of voters want Johnson to “request an extension to the transition period in order to focus properly on the coronavirus”. A majority of voters in every age group backed a delay, with 18 to 24-year-olds the most supportive (78%) and the over-65s the least supportive (52%). Some 44% of those who voted Conservative at the last election want the government to delay.” (link, paywalled)
‘Hope not hate’ speak for ‘The People’? Really? The usual “Whitehall Source” and ‘a senior EU Official’ were also quoted, saying that an extension was a must. As it’s Monday morning, I think we ought to start the week with a laugh, so watch this video on how to conduct polls …
Next, there was the edifying spectacle of a certain Tony Blair telling the PM what to do. He says testing ‘must be massively ramped up’ (link). By ‘massively ramping up’ Blair apparently means every Brit must be tested, and given the number of tests so far, that could take 50 years (link). I didn’t watch that Marr Show, forgive me, so I don’t know if Blair was asked about Foot-and-Mouth.
Other articles today in the MSM are again into the now well-worn exercise of demanding ‘tests-tests-tests’ because the WHO said this was vital. At the same time we’re served with yet another lot of ‘compare and contrast’ reports about death rates. While some, even Michael Gove, are cautiously criticising the Chinese data (link), our MSM are still comparing bananas with carrots.
Interestingly though, while praising S.Korea, Singapore and Sweden for their ‘success’ without any thought that their societies are rather different from ours they never mention Taiwan – one wonders why … There’s even a Labour MP who demands Johnson remain in 14-day according to ‘WHO Rulz’. She’s a doctor, dontcha know, and obeying rules coming from a ‘higher authority’ is in Labour’s DNA.
Another ‘higher authority’ is Jenny Harries, the deputy chief medical officer for England. She told the Nation at yesterday’s government press conference that the current measures, especially on social distancing, could be in place for six months and could go further (link, also link paywalled).
Meanwhile, Germany – and we surely must believe them when they say they’ve been testing massively! – is planning to introduce that antibody test, combined with giving people ‘certificates’ when they’ve been proven to be immune (link).
There’s not one sentence in that whole article that our government is planning to do just that, with these tests being made available on a mass basis ‘soon’. That however would not fit the ‘narrative’ – the narrative that we must be very afraid, that the government isn’t doing enough, and that we’re all gonna die.
The Times found another scientist who was involved in that model-making on which Johnson based his Lockdown, who now says that the previous predictions were being overtaken by ‘events’ and it’s ‘worse than we thought’:
“Tom Pike, from Imperial College, had calculated the likely total death rate by assuming that the outbreak in Britain would follow a similar trajectory to that seen in Wuhan, China. His paper predicted that at its highest, Britain would have 260 deaths a day. That number was reached over the weekend. He said that this changed the results entirely. […] Professor Pike said “[…] If we don’t regain the Wuhan trajectory, each day we are building up more deaths. It’s a very dangerous state to be in.” Deaths seen in wards today represent infections that were caught several weeks ago, before the imposition of a lockdown. Because of this, the most recent measures only show success after a lag.” (link, paywalled)
What extraordinary language: ‘building up more deaths’! As if ‘we’ do this on purpose! Apparently, this lag wasn’t factored into their model … More importantly – are all deaths being tested, and are they recording ‘deaths because of CV-19’, or ‘deaths with CV19’, which is a different kettle of fish?
Let me briefly recommend two critical reports on ‘numbers’. One is by facts4eu, here, looking at CV-19 deaths v ‘expected deaths’ for this time period, producing a stunning graph. The other report is from the Brookings Institute – here – where CV-19 deaths are also compared to ‘normal’ deaths. It’s as if for the MSM there are only CV-19 deaths now.
You might have noticed that the scientist quoted by The Times is not the one (Neil Ferguson) who was so often ot telly. Well, he is self-isolating, but two journalists at the DT have taken a closer look at his career and found some remarkable things which put a giant question mark on that Lockdown Model:
“It has now emerged that Ferguson has been criticised in the past for making predictions based on allegedly faulty assumptions which nevertheless shaped government strategies and impacted the UK economy. He was behind disputed research that sparked the mass culling of farm animals during the 2001 epidemic of foot and mouth disease, a crisis which cost the country billions of pounds. And separately he also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, or ‘mad cow disease’) and its equivalent in sheep if it made the leap to humans. To date there have been fewer than 200 deaths from the human form of BSE and none resulting from sheep to human transmission.” (link)
Read the whole thing! I cannot believe that nobody in Whitehall was aware of the critical reports! I also find it astounding that government advisers still follow that ‘kill them all’, now ‘lock them all up’ advice, unquestioning. I well remember the foot-and-mouth outbreak, that silent spring. Now we’re being forced to observe this year’s spring in silence as well.
There’s more. The DT has unearthed a government document. It’s about a ‘war game’, an exercise on preparedness in the face of a pandemic:
“Code-named Exercise Cygnus, it took place in October 2016 and involved all major government departments, the NHS and local authorities across Britain. […] The findings of Exercise Cygnus remain classified with officials citing “biosecurity concerns” and a desire not to frighten the public as a reason for keeping the documents secret. “There has been a reluctance to put Cygnus out in the public domain because frankly it would terrify people,” one senior official added. More than a thousand separate organisations took part in the cross-government exercise in October 2016 including NHS trusts, the military and the British Medical Association.” (link)
So let’s cast our minds back: what was happening in 2016? Who was the PM? Correct: there was Brexit, it was MS May who had just become PM, relinquishing her job at the Home Office – and there was this other ‘Project Fear’ which we all remember so well. Apparently, Whitehall thought that burdening us poor peasants with more ‘fear’ would be too much. Here’s another interesting quote:
“These gaps, which included a shortage of ICU beds and PPE, were revealed at a time of austerity. […] A spokeswoman for Jeremy Hunt, the then health secretary, insisted : “Jeremy was acutely aware the NHS needed more capacity which is why he fought for and secured an £8 bn and then a £20bn increase in the NHS annual budget during that period, […]” (link)
So money was given – but where did it go? Was there no accounting, no oversight by the Treasury? I’m sure Labour and the MSM would have been onto this result like hawks, right? Why weren’t they? Did they think the money was better spent on ‘gender reassignment’? What about this:
“Throwing money at the problem was not necessarily the solution. “The NHS eats up money. It’s a bottomless pit,” said a senior former government source. “We were in a time of austerity and it wasn’t easy.” (link)
So what was ‘the solution’ and why didn’t it happen? Is it because nobody must criticise ‘Our NHS’? My cynical view is that Mandarins using the term ‘austerity’ do so to cover their own inadequacies while politicians use it to score political points. Here’s a final quote which is remarkable because it shows that not all Mandarins were ‘fond’ of the models, provided by the same people who provided the Lockdown model:
“There was also cynicism across Whitehall about the epidemiological modeling. The previous chief medical officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, ended his term under something of a cloud when the 2009 H1N1 (Swine Flu) pandemic proved a damp squib relative to the initial modelling. The same view was taken of forecasting of the 2013–2016 west african Ebola outbreak.“ (link)
But now we must believe ‘Teh Science’ and those modellers and trash our economy and way of life? I leave you with this report on our lives under police surveillance where the zeal of police and council officials knows no bounds:
“In several parts of the country, reports have emerged of police and environmental health officers trying to stop shopkeepers from selling certain products they deem non-essential, such as Easter eggs.” (link, paywalled)
Words fail me! This is Lockdown Britain: everybody is a suspect, everybody must cower indoors while food rationing has been outsourced to grocery stores. People are expected to trudge daily to local shops instead. Will the police and council officials now also check our bags, to see that it is ‘essential’? No Easter Eggs …
Use the time you have to look for critical reports, write about your finds, keep safe, avoid the police, wash yer hands and as always
KBO!
Get Britain Out have recently sent No 10 a letter demanding that Trade Negs continue by video link and no excuse for delay. It was countersigned by ‘thousands’. Also it was backed by many MPs, including Cabinet Members.
So much for ‘Remainers’ polls.
Thanks for your ‘ferreting’ work Viv.
As for easter eggs – well there’s always been tin pot dictators around hasn’t there.
Attention comrades!! Stand up straight. Straighter!! Now, repeat after me, loudly:
“Stay At Home. Protect the NHS. Save Lives.”
Very good!! Now, once more, louder!!
“Stay At Home. Protect the NHS. Save Lives.”
Is there really a ,”Poll” company called ,’Focaldata ‘….,”Fuck all data” , or am i being particularly dense.
I yield to no-one in my contempt for the political class, but the current situation is impossible for any politician. There’s a disease that’s killing people. Something must be done. Imagine the conversation:
“Secretary, we do not have enough information on which to make a decision. There are reports — anecdotal but widespread — that this virus has been circulating for some time. If so a lot of people will be immune to further infection and the death rates we are seeing are comparable to a normal rather aggressive flu season. If it’s totally new then it’s a bit worse than that.”
Call Me Matt (for it is he): “OK.So how confident are you that the peak infection rate is very near?”
“Not at all. Maybe. Perhaps not. On the other hand….”
“So we can carry on as normal. Or we can have a lock down, But if I… we… get it wrong one way a lot of people will die in the next few months, and the other way we’ll crash the economy?”
“Yes.”
“Right. Lock down it is….. People soon forgive politicians who crash the economy. I mean, look at Gordon Brown…”
It’s a political no-brainer which, considering our politicians, is just as well.
JF
Oh yes, another thing. Until the antibody tests are widespread and proper statistics are done on the results, we’re all flying blind.
Yet another thing most politicians have in common with rats: neophobia.
https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/30/covid19-yet-to-impact-europes-overall-mortality/
We heard yesterday that a friends daughter ( well under 70 ) had died following short illness that was also C.V related , whatever that means but presumably in the present climate will be recorded as CV death.
On the same day another friend who attended two large events in the West midlands about 3 weeks ago reported recovering his smell and taste following two weeks with a really bad cough and flu like symptoms. West Midlands is a CV hotspot and he had sensibly self isolated since his sore throat and cough began. Now if that is not C.V in a mild form it is quite a coincidence and as he hasn’t seen a doctor, whatever it is/was will be not recorded anywhere. From what I’ve seen and heard this ‘virus’ has been doing the rounds in the U.K since before Christmas. How many people have had this and not known I wonder and how reliable are the statistics, not very I would suggest.
Your report of the sale of Easter Eggs was interesting. Also the dye in the Blue Lagoon is more evidence of this stupidity.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/coronavirus-lockdown-derbyshire-police-buxton-peak-district-a4400546.html
First would the purchase of chocolate eggs be a problem if bought with essential items and thus raising morale? Then wouldn’t putting dye in the water risk attracting more people to see what is going on? Shouldn’t people be encouraged to get out in the fresh air as long as they keep a safe distance from strangers?
Also interesting was the report of Tom Pike, “His paper predicted that at its highest, Britain would have 260 deaths a day.” This led me to check again national statistics.
In the UK for 2020, since week ending 24/01/20, when the first UK death was reported, the death rate for each week up to w/e 13/03/20 has been lower than the average over the last five years.
If one takes a snapshot, the death rate for w/e 13/03/20 was 11,019 the comparable w/e in 2018 that is w/e 9/03/18 was 12997. The difference between these two figures is still more than the 260 per day stated by Tom Pike.
Now is this learned gentleman missing something or am I missing something?
There are opportunities in this lockdown and there may be reasons to be optimistic but I am struggling to understand the omg panic.
Especially when we hear of medication not being talked about.
https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/French-researcher-in-Marseille-posts-successful-Covid-19-coronavirus-drug-trial-results
What is equally worrying is that I was going to post a very good YouTube video of this finding and questioning why it isn’t being used. That YT video has been taken down on the basis of, “This video has been removed for violating YouTube’s Community Guidelines.”
Think of this what you will. Smells fishy to me.
nb this comment was in answer to Smete below 10.20am
Are hospital doctors immune from underlying health problems, I believe you don’t have to be over 70 to have them, for a start I’ll take a bet a load of them had a puff of the old nicotine – sort of right of passage
Pandora’s box has been opened. The ccp virus has spread across the globe. It is my understanding that in the absence of a vaccine anyone that is not naturally immune (most of us?) is, sooner or later, going to get it. The chance of starving out the virus by isolating infected areas has, I think, been lost.
In a normal flu outbreak a lot of the heard (us) will be immune either naturally or from inoculation so there won’t be lots of people keeling over all at once because the virus needs to find a high proportion of vulnerable people in order to spread quickly.
However, since the ccp virus is new, nobody’s been inoculated and it’s likely only a low number of people will be naturally immune so almost everyone will get infected, pass it on and in theory it will spread extremely rapidly. (As the saying goes, like the plague).
This is apparently what has happened in places like Italy and Wuhan, China.
The actual number of vulnerable people in our population (the one’s who will get sick enough to need hospital) cannot be known (although in theory could be estimated based on what’s happened in Italy and Wuhan).
On this basis the current lock-down is justifiable, indeed essential. If successful it will slow the rate of infection to the point where the heard immunity is equivalent to what prevails in a normal flu outbreak.
But then the process must be initiated to
LIFT THE LOCKDOWN AS QUICLY AS POSSILE.
(It may be necessary to have more than one lock down.)
As I said in the beginning, everyone who is not naturally immune will get it. Sadly some will die. If the lock-down goes on too long some may well die of starvation.
This is global. We need to get this right because others will follow.
herd
You make a lot of good points there. What really missing from the data we have is the number of people infected in the wider population. This figure is massively skewed to the high side at the moment due to its being largely patients and people presenting with known symptoms that are being tested. This makes the case fatality rate look frighteningly high when it may well not be seeing as the deaths so far at least are not above the usual expected and Covid19 primarily being fatal to a small cohort (those with UHC.) It makes sense to protect these people until sufficient intensive care beds and staff are available. But surely locking the vast majority of people up who are unlikely to be hospitalised for this infection is a sledgehammer to crack a nut.
The Pandora’s box that has been opened is the readiness which the authorities have unquestioningly accepted certain narratives built on inadequate data and turned their countries into open prisons.
That should be …skewed to the low side. sigh.
‘Politicians use statistics in the same way that a drunk uses lamp-posts—for support rather than illumination.’
— Andrew Lang
There are lies, damned lies and statistics – Mark Twain (allegedly)
PEOPLE TELL LIES
PEOPLE TELL LIES
PEOPLE TELL LIES –
New Uncle Bulgaria
I listened to the Today programme when talking to Helen Whately, Minister, when at the end Nic Robinson said the government is not doing enough on virtually everything. The Minster held her cool when I would have been more curt. Lets us see what the death figures in the UK and Worldwide end up at end of April and May. This website is full now of “Covid deniers” so I will leave you now ( see the Webber Part 2 nonsense) and consider whether Brexit will happen at all.
Well, being ‘a denier’ means not taking on trust things pushed by vested interests. These vested interests are not going to debate issues, they just brush inconvenient questions aside. Anything so as not to engage in debate!
So yeah, on this site you’ll find ‘Remain Deniers’, ‘ClimateChange Deniers’, ‘EU Deniers’, ‘MSM Deniers’, ‘WhitehallMandarin Deniers’ and thus also the latest, ‘COVID-19 Deniers’.
I appreciate that this might make someone feel uncomfortable and make them resort to invective rather than argue their own point.
Could you point to someone who has denied Covid, please, whatever that means? Here or anywhere.
There are plenty who question the government’s reaction to it, and plenty more who point to facts, you know those inconvenient truths that don’t fit the official narrative, such as total deaths from all causes being down on previous years, in this country and in most countries across the EU, when we are daily told deaths are increasing exponentially, and that we are all doomed. But I have yet to see anyone deny the disease is around, or its effect on serious sufferers.
Does this Jenny Harries really think tens of millions of healthy, fit and active people who have a near zero chance of dying of this are going to spend an entire summer locked in their dark flats with whining kids, arguing with their spouses about their lack of money and debt as their Government has taken away their livelihood to cover up their failing to provide sufficient ICU beds? I hope Boris is ready for his Peterloo moment. The MSM are desperate for someone, anyone of working age to die from this to justify their mass panic stirring.
How about the first hospital doctor dying from Covid 19 with many to follow, as in Spain, Italy.
What does his autopsy report say? Not all health workers are free from underlying health conditions. Italy are marking down every death as a Covid19 death whether it was the primary cause or just present. This is one of the main reasons their death figures are so out of kilter with every other country. Their stats show only 0.8% of deaths with Covid19 present where there were no UHC. France report 2.4% under 65s had no UHC. Sure like flu it will kill some people unexpectedly and health workers are very exposed.
Yes and don’t the terms of thje recent legislation provide in UK at least for only one doctor signature on death certificate? scope here for much mischief.