Has this finally become the true image showing the fate of EU?
Yes – we’re talking about Brexit today: not one CV-19 report in sight! It’s now six weeks to the ‘deadline’ – the date on which Johnson has to ask for an extension which Remainers are still dead keen to get, but amidst the COVID-19 news still dominating public discourse they find it hard to make themselves heard.
Blithely disregarding heavy-weight papers and reports on the economic consequences of an extension, Remainers are dropping little snippets of gossip into the ears of Remain correspondents – snippets which are, surprise surprise, aimed at undermining Johnson’s negotiating position by smearing, ever so gently, David Frost while depicting ‘Our Michel’ as a poor man who is only doing what the powerful EU members tell him to.
There’s an intriguing ‘war of sources’ coming to the fore. It’s as if Brussels is trying to excuse in advance why something is going to give during these next six weeks. Here for example is a ‘senior EU sources’, speaking to RemainCentral;
“The European Union is ready to back down from its hard line on fishing rights next month once Europe’s leaders get involved in post-Brexit trade negotiations, according to senior sources in Brussels. Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, has struggled to gain “attention” from European capitals during the coronavirus crisis on the need to shift from what he has conceded is a “maximalist” mandate on fisheries demanded by France, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands.” (link, paywalled)
That ‘source’ goes on to tell RemainCentral that such decisions will best be made by the EU leaders who are of course struggling with their own Lockdown problems. And then we read that gentle piece of slur on David Frost, with an astonishing bit of back-pedalling:
“During secret talks, the EU has signalled that the European stance on “level playing field” demands for regulatory alignment and a role for the European Court of Justice are more flexible than presented, publicly, by Mr Frost and the government. “A sort of spectre has been created in the UK about continuing to copy and paste to align indefinitely to EU standards. The reality is different,” the European source said.” (link, paywalled)
Ah – but who has made these negotiations so difficult? Mr Frost by ‘presenting a spectre’, or M Barnier, cleaving to his mandate? When I saw the language (‘a sort of spectre’), I wondered if this ‘senior EU source’, blatantly leaking on supposedly secret talks, might perhaps be ‘our Michel’ himself … This next quote seems to be the actual reason for this leak:
“The EU does not expect the government to ask for an extension to the transition period next month to keep the UK in Europe’s single market and customs union beyond the end of the year.” (link, paywalled)
It looks as if Brussels has secretly accepted that Johnson won’t ask for an extension, and as if Barnier is trying to excuse himself for this disaster: not his fault – his hands were tied. After all, he’s got to think of his future … Then there’s this “UK Source” which spoke to the DT’s Brussels correspondent:
“A UK source close to the negotiations said Mr Barnier’s accusation(‘cherry-picking’) was “bewildering” because Britain only wanted what was typical from a free trade agreement. […] “The only explanation is that their arguments on the merits are not working, and they’re reaching for some of the old script.” (paywalled link)
The next quote is rather intriguing – compare and contrast with that quote from the ‘senior EU’ source above:
“EU diplomats have ruled out any high-level political intervention from national leaders to save the talks. The source said: “Mr Barnier must know that his mandate is non-negotiable in at least some important areas, but he’s doing his best with it.” (paywalled link)
Poor Michel! No help in sight then from the EU member states … Mind you, I find it very strange that such seasoned, top negotiator like M Barnier seems to be incapable of convincing the top EU leaders that this ain’t working. Of course, the CV-19 pandemic and ensuing lockdowns are an excellent excuse!
There’s something else which makes it more difficult for Barnier: the economic disaster both in the EU and here in the UK, meaning that for us an extension is not ‘affordable’. Even Big Business, so keen to keep us In, cannot argue with plain numbers. On Saturday the report of a new Think Tank, Centre for Brexit Policy, was published. This quote is from their summary:
“Extending the Transition Period (TP) and delaying Brexit for 2 years would cost £380 billion, or trillions of pounds if Brexit were lost forever as a result of extension. – An extension of the TP would prevent us from taking the radical steps needed to rebuild the post-Covid economy because the UK would continue to be bound by EU rules and unable to influence them.” (link)
I humbly suggest you might like to read that whole summary. You might also like to check out the comment by Martin Howe QC of ‘Lawyers for Britain’ (link), warning of the danger of an extension keeping us under the boots of the ECJ. Only last week Brussels told Johnson not to give extra concessions to French travellers when demanding travellers to the UK to go into quarantine next month. The ECJ threatened to impose hefty fines on our country for this ‘breach’. I’m not aware that they similarly threatened M Macron.
There’s one other aspect to the possibility of our leaving the EU with No Deal on December 31st which ought to make it more palatable to Big Business Remainers. Roger Bootle in the DT remarks:
“Ironically, whatever congestion and delay businesses might encounter at borders will be reduced in the current circumstances, since trade volumes will be depressed for a while as a result of the economic effects of the virus.” (paywalled link)
Speak of clouds having silver linings! Perhaps it’s this commonsensical aspect which is dawning on the UK business community, making them remarkably silent at the moment. Roger Bootle, pointing out the constitutional consequences, next looks at what an extension means for our economy:
“But if we were to extend the transition period, we would expose ourselves to massive risk in three different areas. First, in the wake of the coronavirus it is absolutely vital that the British Government has complete freedom to set its own laws and regulations, including on such things as state aid to industry. […] This will include fashioning a regulatory regime that is appropriate to Britain’s interests. That requires diverging from the EU’s business-unfriendly regime.” (paywalled link)
The second danger, should there be an extension, is of course that our contributions will become much higher than they are now because the EU is planning their next, five-year budget. The third danger area is the Euro. Roger Bootle warns, giving details:
“The euro has always been a halfway house – a currency and a central bank without a fiscal authority to back them up. Meanwhile, Italy is facing an economic and financial disaster if it stays in the euro under the current policy regime. […] While Britain is still attached to the EU, we risk being drawn ineluctably into a massive financial bailout. If the balloon is about to go up, we had better make sure that we get as far away as possible from the impending wreckage – and that we do this PDQ.” (link)
This brings us to another danger to the EU created by Brussels itself. It could ring in the end of the EU as it is, caused by Brussels’ reaction to the decision of the German Constitutional Court who rejected the way the ECB is demanding CV-19 ‘money’ for economically affected member states. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard for the DT starts his article (paywalled) thus:
“Step by step, the EU institutional machine is making the same mistake with the German people that it made with the British people. It is taking a law-abiding and well-meaning nation for granted. It is treating the legitimate sensitivities of a large net contributor with disdain and playing fast and loose with constitutional law. […] The EU assumed it could get away with this because the German policy class has been broadly complicit – up to a point – but Europe has now run into the unyielding resistance of the German constitutional court, the defender of the post-War Rechtsstaat” (paywalled link)
When it’s about money especially, Brussels recognises no laws governing single member states, preferring financial sanctions. A.E-P observes:
“Brussels and the fraternity of EU-funded think tanks are outraged by the Karlsruhe challenge . But those now demanding that Germany bring its judges to heel are more or less the same people urging maximum sanctions against Poland and Hungary for doing exactly that – bringing their judges to heel. The German government can do no such thing.“ (paywalled link)
Indeed not. The consequences of such Brussels intervention into German Law are far-reaching as this would go to the fundamentals of post-war Germany. A.E-P’s concluding paragraphs are worth keeping:
“One is tempted to say that for the EU to lose its second biggest net contributor is careless: to risk losing its dominant economic power as well is compulsive. But Brussels is in a genuine quandary. It cannot let the euro implode either after going so far. The enduring theme of classical tragedies is that sometimes there is no way out.” (paywalled link)
Brussels has hoisted itself with its own petard. Their ongoing attempts to steamroller countries into submission may finally have gone too far. It remains to be seen how the EU member states react to this, given that their economies are all severely damaged by their CV-19 Lockdowns.
It would be deeply ironic if in the end it’s not Brexit which destroys the EU but CV-19. Remainers better beware: trying to tie us to this impending shipwreck for ideological reasons (hello, Mr Starmer!) will not play well – not when we’re faced with our own Lockdown economic disaster.
We Leavers must keep vigilant. Just as with the Lockdown, we must stay alert, use our Leave common sense, and
KBO!
Photo by touring_fishman
Hy Viv. Does P.D.Q. stand for pretty damn quick? Is the jigsaw pic of the Titanic sinking? Very apt. Agree wholeheartedly.
Yes and yes, Pauline!
Love it….’But Brussels is in a genuine quandary…….sometimes there is no way out’ – Never thought to see the Berlin Wall come down – But now are we really about to witness the demise of the EU ‘Fourth Reich’?
Coronavirus has and is a problem across the world, and whilst it has obvious connect with Brexit as well as many other items, it should be kept separate from Brexit itself ! ….. Seemingly ages ago, ( 2016 ), the British voters told Government that the majority wanted out of the EU, but we then had that Referendum result, ridiculously dithered with by PM May. – Thankfully she was got rid of, and PM Johnson, standing for Brexit, took control by a General Election, with a very good majority for Brexit and PM Johnson. – It was sufficient to shut up the Remain folk, except for the most daft hope of causing more delay !
PM Cameron got it wrong from his view point, as the people went off his script. – Both he and the next PM Drip, have resigned to the enormous satisfaction of Brexiteers ! ….. I can not envisage any way that PM Johnson has, of lengthening this ridiculous delay of implementing the people’s demand for Brexit. – Delay with Brexit now could, and should be an item that draws blood within British politics !
As for the future of the EU, it should be none of our business, but we know that will not hold ! – If the Euro were to fail, then we, with much of the world would suffer financially, and further recession would happen. – Even worse, the Nations of Europe would fall into a domestic mess, and we must by now realise that history can repeat itself ! – Would the EU change itself in order to continue ? – Do pigs fly ! ….. We are too close to the continent to stay clear of their problems, so don’t arrange any parties when this happens !
“End lockdown to prevent further economic damage to the UK’s economy ”
This is the title of a new petition that has recently been put up on the UK Government web site.
I know I’m looking back to yesterday’s column on the lockdown, but I think getting this petition heavily supported will be a major step towards restoring our liberties. If you haven’t come across it, please read and consider signing it.
.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/315979
Many thanks in advance
Mark
It’s done thank you Mark.
Those bludgers would grant us an extension at 23:59 on 31/12/2020.
“under the boots of the ECJ”
I trust the ECj about as far as i could throw a spajazzled Supreme Court judge in the UK, i.e. not very far, she looked a bit bulky.
JF
The demand to ask for an extension to the new Transition Period (didn’t we have the first one under TMay?) by the end of June is simply to put pressure on us. Our government has said a definite NO to that and must know it’s political suicide to go back on that promise.
However, when we get to the end of next month and nothing has been agreed, what’s the betting the EU will very kindly grant us an extra three months or so and say that as long as we are very grateful and agree to the extension by the end of September, the bloc will allow it?
Hold fast, Boris! You’ve got them on the run.
And we will see in the end that Boris has been pretty good ( Far far better than Labour would or will ever be ). Although I do not understan why the Social distancing cannot be reduced , say, to 1 metre.if wearing face masks. ( Wouldn’t face masks limit the problems of spitting, coughing, or sneezing, which seem to be the main reason for 2 m.)
I wonder ( only wonder, you understand ) if a lot of the problem could be the trivialisation of the governments messages, sent out, which treat the population as moronic simpletons . Maybe a bit more of Boris’s flattery instead, would have worked.. In spite of MSM Reporters spite.
TGS. you’ve really got a thing about these face masks haven’t you. Yes they would cope with coughing spitting and sneezing. But excuse me – the way I was brought up has led me to keep my mouth closed when my COPD causes coughing. Only to spit out the sputum if I am near a suitable receptacle, otherwise I swallow it on the grounds that stomach acid can cope with ‘all known germs’. And sneezing has always been directed to a handkerchief or tissue.
Anyway, the lock down almost certainly will be lifted soon. And aren’t the W.H.O. wonderful (not) shock horror a second wave, along with normal flu ‘waves’ in Winter. There’s a thought – how do I get my flu jab – the Med Centre is close due to lock down. Derrr . . .
Face masks are of uncertain benefit in reducing the spread of respiratory disease but are a great way to ensure a high viral load if you are infected, difficulty breathing due to recirculated air if you have COPD, a warm humid environment that is likely to encourage bacterial and viral growth as well as ensure you touch your face more than normal just to get the damn thing comfortable in hot weather. In the context of the lockdown it is more a propaganda tool to force submission and compliance with Big Brother.
Do cough/sneeze into a hankie or tissue though!