It’s the ‘morning after’ and now that the smoke and fury has somewhat dissipated, what do we see on the battlefield that was yesterday’s Brexit Betrayal? Brexit delayed, but not yet defeated.
The most significant political corpses are those of Messrs Jacob Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab besides that of Ms May, whose ‘deal was defeated yet again (344 Noes to 286 Ayes).
We all remember the ringing words, expressed in such a plummy voice with such dazzling rhetoric and astounding intellectual reasoning, by the chairman of the ERG, Mr Jacob Rees-Mogg. He said, repeatedly, that he’d stand with the DUP. He would support Ms May’s WA with a very heavy heart, but would take his cue from the DUP.
The DUP stood firm – watch the clip of Nigel Dodd yesterday in the HoC – and what did JRM do? He voted for Ms May’s abomination! And so did BoJo, and so did Mr Dominic Raab.
We were puzzled by this blatant turncoatery. But there is a simple explanation. Many Tory MPs (remember: they are mostly Remain) think that Ms May must go now and that only a ‘Leaver Leader’ can rescue Brexit. We saw yesterday that a handful of Tory cabinet ministers were already jockeying for position – I mentioned them here. This three-man cabal wants BoJo!
For JRM, nothing is as important as his beloved Tory Party – not Brexit, not the Nation. His mind was made up, his support for the DUP just another instance of smoke-and-mirrors. This was obvious because the speeches of two of his ERG colleagues had no effect on him whatsoever.
One speech was by Sir Bill Cash who spoke excellently as Chairman of the EU Scrutiny Committee. Here is a brief clip, an answer on the question of the Backstop. The other was by Sir John Redwood – watch him here – who came to a totally different conclusion on the same question faced by JRM. Nobody can say that JRM must have been ignorant of these views. Btw, do read Sir John Redwood’s Diary entry for today!
Interestingly, when JRM was straining every sinew in his radio show on LBC yesterday evening to elicit agreement from the phone-ins for his plan, it became obvious that his fulsome EUrosceptic mask hid the usual untrustworthy Tory politician. That mask has now been dropped irretrievably.
But why should we care, you might now ask yourselves. Because Ms May, in her closing statement, hinted at a possible GE (paywalled report). That’s a bit like mummy threatening her toddlers that the bogeyman will come and get them if they don’t behave, and she knows, just as we know, that a GE would be the death of the Tory Party. Will she, like JRM put the fate of her Party before her ego though and go now? I doubt it!
Meanwhile, one of the architects of the actual Remain ‘rebellion’ has bit the dust. Dominic Grieve’s constituency Party expressed ‘no confidence’ in him yesterday (here and here). Not that it matters for the time being. He’s not yet deselected and won’t stand in a new GE anyway. But that’s the way the wind is now blowing.
It’s also blowing hard for Labour – see this assessment – so one wonders if the speculations of the MSM’s political pundits about this latest Project Fear, a GE, has much basis in reality.
Let’s see what is likely to happen next. First up – the EU. Mr Tusk was off the blocks immediately the result was in:
“The European Commission has warned in an extraordinary summit today today that Britain is ‘likely’ to crash out of the bloc without a deal. A spokeswoman for the bloc’s executive branch warned that the EU is now ‘fully prepared’ for a no-deal scenario, which would strike at midnight on April 12 if the UK hasn’t agreed a deal. […] Now European Council President Donald Tusk has given the Prime Minister just 10 days to draw up an alternative plan for an orderly Brexit by April 8, when she will be asked to present it to her 27 EU colleagues at the emergency summit.” (link)
Note well that the EU is using ‘No Deal’ as a threat. One might ask if they are ignorant of the preparations for a No Deal made here in the UK, but I doubt it. It’s the EU playing on the fear of Ms May and the remainers.
It cannot be repeated often enough: the EU is officially prepared for a No Deal – but so is the UK! Read all about it here! Lord King, the former governor of the Bank of England, is not precisely an economic dummy …
Why our PM, our government, our MPs are so sh*tscared (excuse my French!) of a No Deal is simply inexplicable. Ask your MPs, they’re all in their constituencies this weekend. This is especially intriguing and important since we read in the (paywalled) DT that
“Cabinet ministers will attempt to take control of Brexit by telling Theresa May it is “time to embrace no deal” after her EU Withdrawal Agreement was rejected by MPs for a third time. Mrs May will hold a conference call with ministers on Sunday night amid calls for a Cabinet vote on how to proceed.”
Oh – so a No Deal is possible after all? But hold yer horses – next week will have to be navigated first.
On Monday, Sir Oliver Letwin will, with the permission of the Speaker, try again to ‘take control’, fielding more amendments. These are likely to be about keeping us in the Customs Union and the Single Market (paywalled link):
“If more than one option gets a majority, MPs will need to decide whether to hold a run-off or whether the option that won the most support goes through. Sir Oliver Letwin, who spearheaded the process, has suggested that he will then move to take control of the parliamentary timetable on Wednesday and allow MPs to pass a bill compelling the government to go to the EU and negotiate including the chosen option within the political declaration. The EU has said it is willing discuss either of the top two options.”
Of course the EU would!
But that’s not the end of the skulduggery by any means. Just look at this:
“A tentative plan being discussed in Downing Street is to have a fourth shot at a so-called meaningful vote — pitting Mrs May’s deal against the most popular alternative.The hope would be that, when forced to choose between a softer Brexit and the prime minister’s deal, the remaining Brexiteers would fall in line behind the government for fear of something worse.” (paywalled link)
This is how our ‘betters’ strive to keep us in the EU: run-off voting as if it were a beauty contest, with Ms May’s deal getting a fourth (!) bite at the cherry.
That the May BRINO treaty was defeated again – that Leavers had congregated en masse from all over the country – that MPs were preparing to face the fury of their remain constituents: irrelevant! The blame game is already in full swing: it’s the staunch Brexiteers in the ERG who are the sole culprits that Brexit hasn’t happened. Here’s an example report.
While the pundits and their sources are desperately scrabbling in the gossip gutter for every little piece of ‘indicative’ news to serve up on telly and in their papers, it is perfectly clear to this here ignorant peasant that they have lost the plot. They are frit. They are cowards. No deal is possible. No deal is what we want.
Funnily enough, MPs like Kate Hoey, Ian Paisley, Peter Bone had no difficulties to get to the Leave stage for their speeches. It is the Mays the Grieves, the JRMs and indeed the Corbyns who have to fear the ire of us – an ire which is so far verbal.
But as the masks have now dropped, as we all see the mechanics of their betrayal, things may change. Meanwhile, do as Peter Bone MP told the Leave crowd: email your MP and demand answers!