I hope you’ve got over the shock of getting out of bed an hour earlier as the clocks went forward today because here’s another shock for you: we’re now into Mickey-Mouse-Politics (apologies to Mickey Mouse) …
For starters, in the MSM today we’re treated to the unedifying spectacle of Tory MPs ‘laying out their stall’ for an expected election as PM since it’s looking more probable that Ms May’s demise is imminent – not that I associate ‘imminence’ with Ms May.
They all want ‘it’, from pretty Liz Truss to BoJo and Raab, from Hunt and Javid to some totally unknowns. We should care because of the threat of a snap GE under a ‘new’ Tory PM – never mind that many pundits and indeed Tory MPs are adamant that such GE now would be the death of the Tory Party, see eg here (paywalled):
“A series of ministers and MPs have told The Telegraph the party would be “annihilated” at the polls if the Prime Minister insisted on fighting a campaign to face down Parliament over Brexit in the coming months.”
Labour and Corbyn find themselves in similar circumstances even though the MSM are generally more reticent about reporting on inner-Labour turmoil. So this warning is interesting:
“A leading Labour MP said a soft Brexit was also a headache for Corbyn. John Mann, the Labour MP for Bassetlaw, today warns the Labour leader that the working class will turn its back on the party after ignoring their support for Brexit.” (paywalled link)
Meanwhile, the Tories are doing what they do best: sticking knives into each others’ backs. We’re now told that Ms May wants to delay any leadership contest until after the Tory AGM in October so as to prevent BoJo to take over (here) because he might benefit from a ‘Brexit Bounce’ – whatever that is supposed to mean!
In a belt-and-braces approach, “sources” are also blaming both BoJo and Dominic Raab for the DUP not voting for May’s WA on Friday. Note well that JRM isn’t mentioned – he’s not a contender for the PM job, after all. The reason the ‘sources’ give is that the DUP ‘doesn’t trust them’ (here and here, paywalled):
“A cabinet minister sought to blame Johnson and Raab after both had met senior members of the DUP in recent weeks. The May ally said: “The DUP interviewed Boris and Raab and decided they were not really unionists. That’s why they withheld their support for the deal.” Another source said the Unionists were spooked when Johnson failed to assure them that he would strive to maintain regulatory alignment between Britain and Northern Ireland after Brexit.”
You couldn’t make it up: in one fell swoop that ‘cabinet minister’ and that ‘other source’ not only knifed two contenders, he/she/it (mustn’t assume their gender!) also discredits the DUP’s principled stand. Well done!
There’s another, more sinister, piece of briefing against Raab:
“Dominic Raab, the former Brexit secretary — who is vying with Boris Johnson and Michael Gove to be the main Eurosceptic contender for No 10 — broke cover to say that “false claims” were circulating about him. His allies accused the Brexit negotiator Olly Robbins’s team of circulating claims Raab was rude to officials.” (paywalled link)
This shows that the Whitehell Mandarins, not content with demolishing Brexit, are apparently briefing en coulisse to influence the decision of the Tories as to whom to select as new leader.
It doesn’t take the brainpower of an Einstein to see that a true Brexiteer as leader would most definitely not be to their liking. It also emphasises the pernicious role the Whitehell civil serpents are playing in steering our, the voters’, political decisions, just as they’ve done with Brexit.
Back to the HoC and what might happen next. Tomorrow, Oliver Letwin, aided and abetted by the Speaker, will introduce a few amendments, slightly changed from those voted down last Wednesday. The one with the most chance of getting through will be one calling for us to remain in the Customs Union.
Then Ms May will introduce “something” on Tuesday. That could either be a fourth vote for her WA, perhaps in the form of a Second Reading of that WA Bill, or a vote on a Statutory Instrument to ‘reinstate the upcoming EU Parliamentary election’ because that would allegedly ‘concentrate ERG ‘rebels’ minds to vote for her WA …
In a final piece of informed speculation, we’re told:
“If May is defeated again, it is likely she will make the decision on Tuesday night on whether to call a general election or risk being forced by parliament to negotiate a softer Brexit. […] If she does not call an election, May could quit, or risk splitting the Conservative Party by agreeing to return to Brussels to hammer out a deal.” (paywalled source)
Well – she ‘could’ – but will she?
There is another item which could spike the wheels of the May Brexit-Betrayal juggernaut:
“Two leading constitutional experts have warned that the government has the right to ask the Queen to refuse to give royal assent to any bill forced on the government by backbenchers. A paper passed to No 10 yesterday warns that attempts by backbenchers to seize power from the government will “provoke damaging institutional conflict” and “may prompt the government to respond with countermeasures”. […] “The process of royal assent has become a formality, but if legislation would otherwise be passed by an abuse of constitutional process . . . the government might plausibly decide to advise Her Majesty not to assent to the bill” …(paywalled link)
Hm. But will she, will they, listen, never mind act on this advice?
Here’s another looming spectre: another Minister (who he/she/it? Can we be told?) accused remainers …
“ … of “the ultimate act of betrayal” for seeking to push the country towards a customs union. “What they are doing is an absolute betrayal of the referendum result and of this country. I cannot understand how any of them can describe a customs union as any kind of Brexit. You may as well revoke article 50.” […] However, May’s chief of staff, Gavin Barwell, and deputy, David Lidington, are pressing for a soft Brexit deal and a growing number of Conservative MPs are set to back a new referendum.” (paywalled link)
Next, Cabinet ministers, being in it for themselves, are now twisting their personal knives in Ms May’s back, with the usual threats of resignation:
“In an emergency conference call last night Brexiteer cabinet ministers agreed they would resign if May accepted a customs union or got Tory MPs to vote for the UK to take part in European elections in May. They will deliver their threat when the prime minister consults her cabinet today. More than half her Commons party, 170 MPs and ministers, have signed a letter telling May to pursue a no-deal departure from the EU rather than accept a soft Brexit. […] But May will face resignations from at least six cabinet ministers on the party’s remain wing if she backs no-deal. (paywalled link)
Does anyone in the cabinet actually know what they want? Customs Union – no Customs Union – revoke Article 50 – another referendum – No Deal?
Btw – why the heck are they so adamantly against No Deal? Why don’t they tell us their reasons, rather than wrangle about who gets to be PM?
I leave you with news that two Tory MPs penned articles for the DT – paywalled, sadly. One is JRM (here), one is Steve Baker (here). I understand that you can read the comments underneath even if you’ve not paid the ‘Premium’. JRM is getting stick from irate readers for his betrayal while the comments for Steve Baker are nearly unanimously praising him.
To me, that indicates something politicians better not disregard: voters have had enough of spin, obfuscation and dazzling B.S. They want a principled politician as leader, someone who will not sell out this country for a bowl of pottage just because the EU and Whitehell tell him to …
Brexit Betrayal + 12!
KBO!
Please sign this petition, for what it’s worth, it will be up to 100,000 by tonight – increasing currently at 10 a sec:
To Leave on April 12th under WTO/no deal:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/248281
Parliamentary petition: Leave the EU without a deal on April 12
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/248281
Just hit 100,000
KEEP SIGNING!
….. you mean there will be sufficient cretins at an election, who will continue to vote Lib/Lab/Con ! Good grief, we’re SUNK !
Too right, some poll or other now shows Labour seven points ahead of the Con party, Sunk is a mild form of expressing the position we are in, someone writing a couple of days ago from a heavily leave constituency said huge majority to leave and then at the next three elections the population elected a Labour M.P, I would say you are smack on the money with your comment.
That’s just why she won’t call a General Election, Norman, She knows the Tories will be decimated.
Polls, polls, polls. All surveys engineered to give the commissioners the result they want. Suddenly Theresa May is threatening to call a GE, and now ‘polls are suggesting’ that Labour are ‘in the lead’?
Despite all that is going on with the shambles that is Brexit, polls ‘are also suggesting’ that UKIP is not polling very highly either.
The opinion poll results are just fake figures, being used to engineer both the Tories, and the unsuspecting public as a whole, into agreeing Mrs May’s ‘deal’ (which isn’t a deal).
They also do a good job of artificially lowering the actual support for UKIP that is out there.
Mike, Mike, Mike…..(sigh)…
You only need a small number to turn up at an election. Thousands of Lab/Conners won’t turn up, but the proportions of those that DO will mean the same scum get re-elected in more or less the same proportions, and feel emboldened to carry on cos they got in again so everything’s “OK” in their book. It’s called First Past The Post my friend.
Lab/Con NEVER gets truly decimated, just a bit of a dip (which describes each MP’s character as well).
Each and every one of the alleged Brexiteer Tories could have resigned their seat and fought the by-election on a WTO/No Deal ticket. Could/would May have opposed them with a Let’s Give Brussels £39 Billion ticket? I think not. The country would have been cheering that rebel on and May’s bluff would have been called.
But not one of them has the courage or patriotism to act on behalf of the nation, rather than their party.
They are all Tories, not of our blood, and therefore beyond the pale.
The next trick I expect from May is she will ‘appeal’ to the Labour Remainiacs for “A Governemtn of National Unity” to go for the Customs Union handcuffs – and so destroy the Tories into the bargain.
I suggest the next trick from May is to ask the EU for a long extension and have another referendum but this time you could vote for her Withdrawal Agreement, which is totally BRINO, or simply remain in the bloc.
In that instance I’d vote remain on the grounds that ‘he who fights and runs away lives to fight another day’. When we get a decent Brexiteer in No. 10 we can have another go at leaving.
…and another good post from FreeNations:
http://freenations.net/mrs-mays-deal-is-rotten-to-the-core-radio-interview
I agree that the immediate reaction by millions of disillusioned voters is, why bother. However, in a low turn out the politicians will assume non-voters are happy with the status quo. It maybe better to turn out and use the ballot paper to comment on whatever, without voting for anyone. In that way they’ll know we are still interested but not in them.
While ‘spoilt’ ballots do get counted – that is true – please don’t fall into the trap of thinking that anyone will take any notice of what anyone writes on their ballot paper in order to ‘spoil’ it.
A spoilt ballot is just as much a ‘wasted vote’ as not bothering to vote at all.
I see your point Stuart, but who the hell do we vote for in any forthcoming election? If people don’t vote at all they will say the non-voters support the status quo, just as they did after the referendum result. A few million spoilt papers would send the clear message that the system has failed and there’s no trust in politicians of any party.
Maybe I’m biased, but I would say VOTE UKIP!
If there is no UKIP candidate available, I would vote for anyone who wasn’t representing any of the ‘Establishment’ parties (LibDem/Labour/Tory).
We have no local elections here in Birmingham since the Labour council managed to gerrymander there way to only needing ‘full’ elections once every four years.
If I couldn’t vote for a UKIP candidate, I’d happily vote for For Britain, Democrats & Veterans etc, or failing that anyone brave enough to stand as an independent.
As I said elsewhere, only ‘crosses in the box’ matter. You only need a very low turnout, with a couple of thousand steadfast Labour voters, to return a Labour candidate. There might well be far more ‘spoilt’ ballots than those that voted Labour, but its all in vain.
Take a look at the result for the Princes End ward in Sandwell last year:
https://www.sandwell.gov.uk/info/200205/elections_and_voting/4139/princes_end_ward_-_results_-_election_2018/1
Labour ‘won’ with just 957 votes, out of an electorate of 9017. The turnout was 16.8%.
Just imagine how different the result would have been if the 7502 people who didn’t vote had turned up at the polling station and voted for the independent candidate. Repeat that pattern across the borough, and Labour would have been trounced.
Of course, local elections are a whole different kettle of fish. But I hope you get my point.
I agree with Ken Stuart, spoilt ballots DO count.
Yes, they do count but they make no difference to the result. Take my example above from Princes End in Tipton last year. 4000 people could have spoilt their ballot papers in protest, but Labour would have still ‘von’ even with only 957 votes. If the turnout was 100% and 9000 people spoilt their ballot, just 17 votes from die-hard Labour voters would have still seen a Labour councillor returned.
By all means, spoil your ballot paper if that’s your choice, but don’t expect anyone to take any notice of any ‘message sent’.
Christopher Booker had written his final article for the Daily Telegraph. One of the few remaining good guys in the MSM. He will be missed.
Now we are well and truly into the absurd zone. The probable demise of May – eventually – has triggered handbrake turns by the three most popular- for ‘hard’ Brexiteers – politicians out there, namely BoJo, JRM and Raab, much to our dismay and disgust . It is obvious that potential personal gain trumps any patriotism or democratic idyll.
The Tories and Labour are hopelessly divided.
On the ‘pure Brexit’ party sides we only have solidarity within the DUP, who seem remarkably stable. But they are few.
As for the rest?
Friday’s police -segregated demos showed – as do other indicators apparent from videos of Bow Group meetings and other pressure groups and banal video feeds and blogs that you can find by the hundreds , that there is an irreconcilable gap between LML/ Brexit Party and UKIP. UKIP is in a death-spiral, unable to escape from the dreadful TR publicity that excludes the party from serious consideration by moderate voters . On the other hand LML / Brexit Party seem to be engaging in the delusional notion that one man can swing a landslide without troops on the ground, branch structures or indeed members.
Within the now confused ranks of ‘Brexiteers’ we have a new and frankly obscene, clamour for party political patronage as hordes of no-hopers and hangers on from the past- (think bone – idle ex UKIP MEP’s, but there are loads more), lick the boots of their masters in the hope they make the selection lists if and when they can stand in upcoming EU elections.
All that lovely money and expenses for 5 more years. And barely a single one of them capable of running a whelk stall. No one is fooled any more.
Meanwhile, the back-stabbing and self-promotion continues. Accompanied, of course, by endless requests through begging letters and emails for cash to fund their self-indulgence and long lunches.
We’ve seen that all before. The public don’t want it. It’s taking the piss.
We have to realise that the Brexit debate is at a chaotic impasse. The country clearly wants and deserves better than this. The country is unlikely to get that unless the government itself reaches out to all the major parties – that is parties with seats in the Commons- not the now failed fringe parties with no seats, and constructs a compromise ‘National Unity’ administration to guide the way forward. It means May goes and almost certainly means what might be seen as an administration similar to that created by necessity in WWII.
The frustration this creates – there will be no clean break with the EU until 2022 at the earliest- and the FACT that UKIP / TBP will have no influence at all due to the failure to secure any parliamentary seats in 25 years, means that indulging in wishful-thinking fringe politics is now yesterday’s game.
So get your sensible hats on folks. Time for new thinking.
Time for new thinking right enough, and this is not it. Government of national unity from that lot?
We can’t have no effective government. If May will not resign / the Crown will not prorogue parliament / the democratic process is not observed and nothing is ever done apart from endlessly debate Brexit then we will get anarchy.
No wonder we have lawless streets if the lawmakers are useless.
Imagine if there were a real crisis, like war, we would be totally impotent.
If no single party can achieve a majority or any consensus then a coalition / unity parliament is the only choice .
Unsavoury but the only choice.
Question: How many versions of Brexit are there? Answer: As many as there are MP’s in The Great Remainer Parliament. Indicative Vote 2 takes place tomorrow on All Fools Day (very apt). The object is to reach a cross party consensus, which is difficult for them as the majority wish to remain, against the wishes of millions of voters and their own manifestos. The trick is to find an agreement which will keep us in, but it needs to be disguised so it can be called Brexit hoping leave voters will not notice. No chance! Over the centuries many countries have fought to free themselves from foreign powers in order to make their own laws, rules and regulations, but we are different, we are breaking the mould, our Parliament is fighting to stay in subjugation. It’s much easier for our MP’s to rubber stamp EU laws, rules and regulations than have the hassle of doing it themselves. The default position is still No Deal which will take us not to the “cliff edge” but to the “launch pad” of a free UK.
Please read Sir John Redwood’s dairy entry for today, where he lays out what the options now are:
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2019/03/31/lets-rule-out-some-options/
Enjoy!
This is interesting from the English Democrats:
https://robintilbrook.blogspot.com/2019/03/english-democrats-bring-case-to-get.html
I wish them well; may the force be with them.
Makes you wonder why we have a cabinet and government at all after our’ twin ‘ state Belgium got along quite nicely without one just think how well we would do with the civil service running the show , then there is the monarchy and lords look at the ‘savings’ we could make if that lot went! , No need to spend millions on all that flummery, security and fancy buildings either. :-).
As we have seen with recent antics the civil service are the last people that I would want running the show. Maybe a class of schoolkids could do better…but certainly the money saved would be welcome. On the other hand how about paying the Cabinet and MPs what we really think they are worth after all the shenanigans? (Suggestion – pence instead of pounds)
From the TPA today re MPs expenses:
Findings show that for 2017/18:
• MPs claimed a total £116 million in taxpayer funded expenses.
• Ian Blackford MP claimed the most expenses at a £240,562.
• MPs claimed an average of £166,901 in expenses.