It’s Brexit Groundhog Day, with one change in the list of ‘star performers’. Otherwise: nothing has changed over there on the Continent. The usual suspects behave as we would expect, from Berlin to Brussels to Paris to Dublin.
There is one change though, which is to the mood of the public here in the UK. Expectations were cautiously high after BoJo entered No 10 while the shenanigans of the hardcore Remainers in the HoC were watched with tired amusement, even the attempts by the ‘loyal opposition’ to topple this government. We’ve seen and heard it all before.
However, after Johnson’s letter demanding the removal of the Backstop was made public, Joe Public, in the guise of comment posters from the MSM to blogs, made clear that they smelled a big fat Remain Rat in that letter.
That big fat Remain Rat was the prospect of ‘negotiations’, meaning we could well be presented with the disastrous May WA with a few tweaks, keeping us in the Customs Union, the Single Market, and under the boots of the European Court of Justice.
The reports from Berlin can only be regarded as ‘same old same old’, accompanied by the ‘same old same old’ from Brussels and Dublin. Oh – and Paris, where in the run-up to Johnson’s visit today and even before he had met Ms Merkel, M Macron insisted on ‘give us the money’ with the gallic shrug of ‘we’re prepared for No Deal’.
Ms Merkel told Johnson to produce plans for a Backstop Removal in 30 days to which he agreed, calling this ‘a blistering pace’ (here, here, paywalled here and here.) Ms Merkel, according to these reports, told Johnson that this can be done and that negotiations would be possible afterwards:
“Boris Johnson has been given 30 days to come up with a solution to the Northern Irish backstop and forge a new Brexit deal with the European Union. Angela Merkel suggested she would be willing to ditch the controversial backstop if the UK can agree a suitable alternative by Sept 20.” (paywalled here)
and:
“Angela Merkel suggested last night that it was still possible to avoid a no-deal Brexit, challenging Boris Johnson to come up with an alternative to the Irish backstop within 30 days. The German chancellor said that the time had come for Britain to put its proposals forward and pledged to “put our all” into solving the impasse.” (here, paywalled)
and:
“The German Chancellor was optimistic a solution to the controversial Northern Ireland border could be found before the October 31 deadline. Mrs Merkel […] added: “If one is able to solve this conundrum, if one finds this solution, we said we would probably find it in the next two years to come but we can also maybe find it in the next 30 days to come. Then we are one step further in the right direction and we have to obviously put our all into this.” (link)
and:
“Angela Merkel delivered a Brexit boost to Boris Johnson today as she said ditching the backstop was possible if the UK can come forward with practical and workable alternatives within the next 30 days as she also insisted Germany is ready for a No Deal split. The German Chancellor said if the UK could solve the ‘conundrum’ of the Irish border protocol then she would be willing to listen to the proposals.” (here)
Isn’t that nice! But let’s not be fooled. Read the last sentence in the quote above – carefully: Ms EU ‘would be willing to listen’ – no commitment to actually doing something, is it! Then ponder this:
“The German Chancellor’s friendly approach was part of a “good cop, bad cop” routine with Emmanuel Macron, who will meet Boris Johnson today. […] But Brussels insiders believe the German Chancellor’s offer changes very little in the negotiations, despite her signalling a willingness to work on alternative solutions to the measure designed to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland.” (link)
No change, is there! It seems The Express has better sources in Brussels than the esteemed broadsheets, so here’s more:
“EU sources, however, insist the offer she made behind closed doors to the Prime Minister would leave him far from satisfied. They signalled Ms Merkel sees the alternative solution as Britain remaining in close orbit of the customs union and single market to prevent customs checks from emerging on the border. An EU source said: “So basically nothing is new. Merkel is the good cop and Macron will be bad cop. “Boris Johnson’s team is spinning like f***.” They added: “Thirty days or next two years if political declaration is altered to seal a deal on a customs union, which is precisely the opposite of what Johnson wants.” (link)
Nothing new in the EU …! Today Johnson travels to France, to meet the wannabe Napoleon, M Macron. Paris has set the tone for that meeting yesterday, even before Johnson had met Ms Merkel:
“A source in the French President’s office on Wednesday said a no-deal Brexit was being treated as the most likely scenario. On Wednesday night Mr Macron told reporters that renegotiating the UK’s exit was “not an option”. He also warned a post-Brexit trade deal with the US would represent a “historic vassalisation” for the UK.” (paywalled here).
The veiled but fundamental anti-American stance of the French is shown perfectly in that last sentence. M Macron apparently believes that “vassalisation” – what a lovely new word! That’s Frenchification, that is! – to the EU through May’s WA is perfectly fine while “vassalisation” through trade agreements with the USA is not.
Given the recent EU trade agreements with Japan and the Mercosur South American states, one would like to know if, for example, Mr Abe, PM of Japan, is now regarding Japan as being “vassalisationised” (I can ‘do’ new words as well!) to the EU.
So: Brexit Groundhog Day, where Macron demands that we pay those £39bn, deal – no deal: no matter (link); where Peter Bone MP reiterates that we owe the EU not a penny (here) and where the Irish refuse to even talk about the Backstop, aided and abetted by EU ‘diplomats’ who also won’t talk about deals or no deals (link).
We remember that there have been many perfectly valid proposals for managing the NI-Eire border which have all been rejected by the EU. We can be certain that EU intransigence won’t change in the next 30 days just because BoJo is BoJo.
We also remember that it was the policy of Brussels and M Barnier and indeed of France and Germany to demand the previous PM ‘do her homework’ and submit proposals which were then rejected out of hand. Not that she minded …
We finally remember that the EU and Ms Merkel especially have vested interests in seeing the previous PM’s “deal” be fully implemented because they themselves set it up, with the help of certain Whitehall Mandarins whose names suddenly escape me …
So: Brexit Groundhog Day – nothing has changed except the face of the performer for the UK. Even Mr Corbyn’s latest attempt to form a ‘coalition of the willing Remainers’ in the HoC (paywalled here and here) is nothing but yet another repeat of a repeat performance.
So: Brexit Groundhog Day – perfectly demonstrating the truth of the saying that those who do not learn from History will be forced to repeat it. Has Johnson still not learned that there’s no negotiating with the stonewall that is the EU? Why should we believe that his ‘deal’ will be different from that abject surrender, the May WA, the appeasement paper reminiscent of Neville Chamberlain?
So: Brexit Groundhog Day for us – because for three years we’ve watched this Brexit shambles created by our government and Brussels. In good old Groundhog Day manner we will
KBO!
Photo by ImAges ImprObables 
I propose we cease using the ‘WA’ abbreviation and instead use ‘WA-NK?’
Short for ‘Withdrawal Agreement – No Kidding?’.
Written by W*nkers – surely appropriate?
🙂
But why this manufactured problem? The UK don’t want a hard border – the EU doesn’t want a hard border (b*gger what Ireland wants, I suppose they think) – so isn’t that a no-brainer?
”So, let’s agree, Mrs Merkel, no hard border then.” Sorted.
When Theresa May was asked by Michel Barnier what she was going to do about the Irish border, she went into a flat spin and put dozens of her people on it. What she should have said was: “Nothing. What are YOU going to do about it?”
Isn’t it strange that when you get down to it, the only person you really have to deal with is Merkel. That’s because the Germans run the EU of course and 48% of people in this country voted to be ruled by Germany in effect.
It’s quite shameful and maybe Corbyn is what we deserve.
I feel we’re going to end up with the WA minus the backstop, something they were always prepared to concede if pressured.
It’s not Brexit and not acceptable. If it happens I’ll vote Brexit Party in the future even if it means Corbyn ( or McDonnell rather)
It looks like a messy divorce. You can have a divorce where you walk out into a little flat and start from scratch all over again. You can live in the same house in different rooms. Or you can have an amicable divorce where arrangements that suit both parties are in place.
Politicians are cautious people who do not like change unless it suits them. And it seems that only two of the three divorce options are still on the table. Britain can walk out with No Deal and start again from scratch. It can accept the deal (living separately in the same house) until the opportunity to move out altogether becomes a viable proposition.
A deal that suits both parties is obviously the most sensible proposition. But the EU elite, being the cause of the divorce in the first place, are in no mood to stop it turning into an acrimonious divorce. So the only options are is to leave and move into poorer accommodation, or accept the deal and having achieved independence become self sufficient.
‘or accept the deal and having achieved independence become self sufficient’
And you left out – in this particular case be told where to live; how to live; and to pay huge alimony for the rest of time.
A good point about alimony. The only thing that needs to be provided for in the alimony arrangement are the “children” who are now grown up and independent i.e. British pensioners living abroad and EU pensioners living in Britain???
We are better off with no deal, the eu make up a fraction of world trade. We also save the 39 billion which we do not owe. They owe us trillions in assets we paid for and billions we have in the eu bank. So when they pay us we will pay them, Fairs Fair, but not if your brussels
The EU has told us that whether we leave with or without a deal, we will still have to pay the £39bn. Well ….!!
A true brexit government would by now have gone on the offensive instead of allowing itself to be trapped into endless negotiations .
Boris must get the British people behind him by re-doubling his Governments confidence in the preparedness for a No Deal. His team should have a big photo of a slice of toast in No 10 room to remind them of what the Tories will become if they cop out. Perhaps we should all send a slice of toast to No 10 to emhasise our determintation to hold the Tories toes to the fire.
Last 11 November, I sent the cabinet each a white feather with the message to get us out of the common market, schnell.
I think toast will cost more in postage, but the audience to whom it is sent will be smaller. Great idea, thanks.
Now for the appropriate accompanying message. Any thoughts?
“Bite me”
Love it!, Love it!, Love it!. A ‘Beauty’ (still laughing).
“Oct31 is Crunch Time”
OK one more then I’ll get back in the box I should never have left…
“We’re all pretty browned off too”
Dear PM I recommend that this piece of toast be kept on the Cabinet table and that attention is drawn to all attending that this humble slice of wholemeal toast symbolises what will happen to the the Tory party if we do not collectively achieve a clean Brexit on the 31st Oct.
Its the good cop (Merkel) and bad cop (Macron) show.
So far Boris has done well enough, even raising some smiles and laughs with Merkel and the German press pack. Today however he meets Macron, very definitely the bad cop and not one for indulging in humour.
The French, with their withering sense of entitlement, expect the £39 billion and for Boris to drop his pants . Of course Boris drops his pants to Macron at his peril, for he would immediately be finished here in the UK -and the Tories too.
I expect he knows this and as Boris does not see his destiny ending with a humiliating rogering from the cheese eating surrender monkeys, we might see his snarl rather than his jokes later today.
I say bring it on.
If the lion really has a roar, he’s going to have to make that voice heard in the next few hours.
Agreed. He didn’t allow Macron to dominate him in that press conference though and made it clear that he wasn’t going to back down in public. He’s already streets ahead of Theresa May in that they actually respect him. May was an embarrassment .