It’s the ‘day after’, a gloomy November morning following a gloomy November day. Predictably, there’s only one Brexit Betrayal theme across the MSM: Nigel Farage’s announcement yesterday afternoon not to stand candidates in any of the 317 Tory seats.
I watched most of Farage’s speech yesterday afternoon and within minutes I knew from his delivery that something was up. And so it proved … There were two key points in his speech – one had me shout in disbelief and exasperation, the other made me reflect. You can read his speech here.
The exasperation, nay anger, was shared across social media during the speech. Firstly it was for Farage’s claim that Johnson’s Sunday statement, that we’d be out at the end of next year and that a trade deal would be negotiated, had changed his mind.
None of us believe Johnson will keep his word – he’s not been found dead in a ditch, after all, as far as I’m aware – and we have pointed out the nastiness of his WAIB, of the sell-out of NI and the DUP, of the EU negotiator’s repeated warnings, for weeks! And now Farage ‘trusts’ Johnson? Inconceivable! That is where I smelled the rat coming down the road because it sounded like a convenient excuse …
Then came the other reason for Farage’s decision which I think was the real one – about their private polls. I shall come to that below – first a quick look at the reactions in the MSM which were mostly infuriating. Predictably LabLib were using this decision to paint TBP as Tory-Turquoise:
“Remainers hope to use Mr Farage’s message to toxify Mr Johnson. Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, said it showed that “a vote for Boris Johnson’s Conservatives is a vote for Nigel Farage’s politics”. Sir Ed Davey, the Lib Dem deputy leader, said “the Conservatives and the Brexit Party are now one and the same”.” (link, paywalled)
While we denigrate pollsters, they do have some uses. This finding is, I believe, the real reason for Farage’s decision to pull out of contesting Tory seats:
“The Conservatives’ poll boost since Mr Johnson took over has come almost entirely at the expense of the Brexit Party and Mr Farage’s concession significantly reduces the chances that this will be thrown into reverse.” […] Professor Sir John Curtice, a polling expert of Strathclyde University, pointed to polling showing that 70 per cent of those intending to vote for the Brexit Party would back the Conservatives if Mr Farage’s party did not stand, against 22 per cent who would vote Labour.” (link, paywalled)
These findings must have been mirrored in the private polls run by TBP and it is these findings which I believe forced Farage’s hand. Remember that TBP does want to get MPs into the HoC, and the experience of voters in the 2014 EU Parliament elections moving to the Tories in the 2015 GE must also have played a role.
Let us also not forget that quite a few of his top-level colleagues have argued with him about not standing PPCs in every constituency – they would have seen the same polls – and that a number of TBP’s PPCs had already stood down unilaterally.
We should also keep in mind that we who write and post on social media, doing more than just click a ‘like’ icon, regrettably are a minority – vociferous, opinion-forming in our own vicinity perhaps, but not as influential as our enthusiasm makes us wish we were. Nor do we represent all the Leave voters across the country.
So where do we stand now – what can we do? Wherever we’re able to we must now show up the establishment, MSM included, for the craven cowards they are – craven in the face of the EU, like Labour who is losing any claim to be a credible ‘government-in-waiting’ with their traitorous behaviour, with the support for yet another now fallen tinpot dictator in South America. We must show up the LibGreen traitors for the Quislings they are, and that they are even denying the voters in their target constituencies the choice between Green and Yellow.
Above all we can and must take on the greedy Tories who are without honour given that they are now demanding TBP simply stop standing anywhere:
“One cabinet minister told The Times that the Brexit Party should pull out of Labour marginals entirely. “Farage accepts that a vote for the Brexit Party is a vote for Corbyn and a second referendum,” they said. “But he hasn’t pulled out of the seats we need to win to defeat Corbyn and deliver Brexit”. Another said: “If we end up with a hung parliament again because of the Brexit Party all eyes will be on him. People will say, ‘You did this.’ Iain Duncan Smith, the former Conservative leader, urged Mr Farage to withdraw from more seats to avoid splitting the Leave vote, saying that Labour would “sneak through” if the Brexit Party stood in marginal seats.” (link, paywalled)
Enough never is enough for Tories, is it! During the weekend and across yesterday’s MSM they were screeching that Farage must to the honourable thing, put country before Party and mustn’t split the Leave vote. Now he has done so – at huge cost to him personally, I have no doubt, having seen his body language at his press conference yesterday – but no words even of grudging acknowledgement that he did ‘the right thing’, no! It’s ‘give us more’, and ‘go away entirely’.
Their reaction shows yet again that, for them, this election isn’t about Brexit, it’s about their winning seats any which way, putting the blame on TBP even before we go to the polls … just in case. It was inevitable that the DM should pick this argument up in their report.The opinion editors in the DT offer the same argument:
“Mr Farage says he wishes to see Brexit Party MPs elected, to hold the Tories to account if they do win. However, now that he has conceded the logic that his party’s actions could result in a hung Parliament that could kill off Brexit altogether, he should assess where else he would be better off standing aside.” (paywalled link)
There’s one aspect which hasn’t quite sunk in yet into Tories’ minds – they are now on their own to fight for the Leave votes in their constituencies. TPB standing aside doesn’t mean their supporters will now go and campaign for the Tories. The onus for winning their seats is on them, as this warning shows:
“The case for the Tories winning a landslide on December 12 is that Brexit trumps party loyalty as the main driver of voter motivation by a ratio of two to one, and that 63 per cent of constituencies voted to Leave the EU in 2016. […] The case for the Tories being denied a landslide would be if the election were fought ostensibly on domestic issues, especially welfare and public services, or if the Labour Party surprised the world by announcing it would campaign on an unambiguous Remain ticket. Even if the former is likely, the latter is not.” (paywalled link)
Indeed, and no amount of wailing about TBP, of getting their excuses in early will help if they don’t work all out to get the Leave votes. We must make this the Brexit elections, the election which is between LabLib Remain and us Leavers. That is where we must concentrate our efforts.
Let’s get our ‘blame’ in early as well: a hung parliament will be entirely the fault of the Tory Party, showing yet again that they are a greedy, unprincipled lot, using Brexit as a means to an end, to remain in power. We Leave voters are pawns in their game plan, that’s all.
Let’s make them work hard for every single one of our votes. Meanwhile those of us who can must see to it that TBP candidates will win in the constituencies where they stand against LabLib Remain. Don’t expect any ‘silent’ support or ‘inofficial alliance’ from the Tories. They have shown that they are a dishonourable lot whom we cannot trust. Keep that in mind while we