It’s the ‘day after’, a gloomy November morning following a gloomy November day. Predictably, there’s only one Brexit Betrayal theme across the MSM: Nigel Farage’s announcement yesterday afternoon not to stand candidates in any of the 317 Tory seats.
I watched most of Farage’s speech yesterday afternoon and within minutes I knew from his delivery that something was up. And so it proved … There were two key points in his speech – one had me shout in disbelief and exasperation, the other made me reflect. You can read his speech here.
The exasperation, nay anger, was shared across social media during the speech. Firstly it was for Farage’s claim that Johnson’s Sunday statement, that we’d be out at the end of next year and that a trade deal would be negotiated, had changed his mind.
None of us believe Johnson will keep his word – he’s not been found dead in a ditch, after all, as far as I’m aware – and we have pointed out the nastiness of his WAIB, of the sell-out of NI and the DUP, of the EU negotiator’s repeated warnings, for weeks! And now Farage ‘trusts’ Johnson? Inconceivable! That is where I smelled the rat coming down the road because it sounded like a convenient excuse …
Then came the other reason for Farage’s decision which I think was the real one – about their private polls. I shall come to that below – first a quick look at the reactions in the MSM which were mostly infuriating. Predictably LabLib were using this decision to paint TBP as Tory-Turquoise:
“Remainers hope to use Mr Farage’s message to toxify Mr Johnson. Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, said it showed that “a vote for Boris Johnson’s Conservatives is a vote for Nigel Farage’s politics”. Sir Ed Davey, the Lib Dem deputy leader, said “the Conservatives and the Brexit Party are now one and the same”.” (link, paywalled)
While we denigrate pollsters, they do have some uses. This finding is, I believe, the real reason for Farage’s decision to pull out of contesting Tory seats:
“The Conservatives’ poll boost since Mr Johnson took over has come almost entirely at the expense of the Brexit Party and Mr Farage’s concession significantly reduces the chances that this will be thrown into reverse.” […] Professor Sir John Curtice, a polling expert of Strathclyde University, pointed to polling showing that 70 per cent of those intending to vote for the Brexit Party would back the Conservatives if Mr Farage’s party did not stand, against 22 per cent who would vote Labour.” (link, paywalled)
These findings must have been mirrored in the private polls run by TBP and it is these findings which I believe forced Farage’s hand. Remember that TBP does want to get MPs into the HoC, and the experience of voters in the 2014 EU Parliament elections moving to the Tories in the 2015 GE must also have played a role.
Let us also not forget that quite a few of his top-level colleagues have argued with him about not standing PPCs in every constituency – they would have seen the same polls – and that a number of TBP’s PPCs had already stood down unilaterally.
We should also keep in mind that we who write and post on social media, doing more than just click a ‘like’ icon, regrettably are a minority – vociferous, opinion-forming in our own vicinity perhaps, but not as influential as our enthusiasm makes us wish we were. Nor do we represent all the Leave voters across the country.
So where do we stand now – what can we do? Wherever we’re able to we must now show up the establishment, MSM included, for the craven cowards they are – craven in the face of the EU, like Labour who is losing any claim to be a credible ‘government-in-waiting’ with their traitorous behaviour, with the support for yet another now fallen tinpot dictator in South America. We must show up the LibGreen traitors for the Quislings they are, and that they are even denying the voters in their target constituencies the choice between Green and Yellow.
Above all we can and must take on the greedy Tories who are without honour given that they are now demanding TBP simply stop standing anywhere:
“One cabinet minister told The Times that the Brexit Party should pull out of Labour marginals entirely. “Farage accepts that a vote for the Brexit Party is a vote for Corbyn and a second referendum,” they said. “But he hasn’t pulled out of the seats we need to win to defeat Corbyn and deliver Brexit”. Another said: “If we end up with a hung parliament again because of the Brexit Party all eyes will be on him. People will say, ‘You did this.’ Iain Duncan Smith, the former Conservative leader, urged Mr Farage to withdraw from more seats to avoid splitting the Leave vote, saying that Labour would “sneak through” if the Brexit Party stood in marginal seats.” (link, paywalled)
Enough never is enough for Tories, is it! During the weekend and across yesterday’s MSM they were screeching that Farage must to the honourable thing, put country before Party and mustn’t split the Leave vote. Now he has done so – at huge cost to him personally, I have no doubt, having seen his body language at his press conference yesterday – but no words even of grudging acknowledgement that he did ‘the right thing’, no! It’s ‘give us more’, and ‘go away entirely’.
Their reaction shows yet again that, for them, this election isn’t about Brexit, it’s about their winning seats any which way, putting the blame on TBP even before we go to the polls … just in case. It was inevitable that the DM should pick this argument up in their report.The opinion editors in the DT offer the same argument:
“Mr Farage says he wishes to see Brexit Party MPs elected, to hold the Tories to account if they do win. However, now that he has conceded the logic that his party’s actions could result in a hung Parliament that could kill off Brexit altogether, he should assess where else he would be better off standing aside.” (paywalled link)
There’s one aspect which hasn’t quite sunk in yet into Tories’ minds – they are now on their own to fight for the Leave votes in their constituencies. TPB standing aside doesn’t mean their supporters will now go and campaign for the Tories. The onus for winning their seats is on them, as this warning shows:
“The case for the Tories winning a landslide on December 12 is that Brexit trumps party loyalty as the main driver of voter motivation by a ratio of two to one, and that 63 per cent of constituencies voted to Leave the EU in 2016. […] The case for the Tories being denied a landslide would be if the election were fought ostensibly on domestic issues, especially welfare and public services, or if the Labour Party surprised the world by announcing it would campaign on an unambiguous Remain ticket. Even if the former is likely, the latter is not.” (paywalled link)
Indeed, and no amount of wailing about TBP, of getting their excuses in early will help if they don’t work all out to get the Leave votes. We must make this the Brexit elections, the election which is between LabLib Remain and us Leavers. That is where we must concentrate our efforts.
Let’s get our ‘blame’ in early as well: a hung parliament will be entirely the fault of the Tory Party, showing yet again that they are a greedy, unprincipled lot, using Brexit as a means to an end, to remain in power. We Leave voters are pawns in their game plan, that’s all.
Let’s make them work hard for every single one of our votes. Meanwhile those of us who can must see to it that TBP candidates will win in the constituencies where they stand against LabLib Remain. Don’t expect any ‘silent’ support or ‘inofficial alliance’ from the Tories. They have shown that they are a dishonourable lot whom we cannot trust. Keep that in mind while we
KBO!
Now that Nigel has pulled his candidate out of this constituency I am at a loss to know how to vote. I do not like Boris’s Brino and do not want to support it. That said, some years ago a council seat in this constituency became vacant. My husband and I, having just joined UKIP, decided to vote UKIP. We thought that as this constituency was rock solid Tory our vote would be wasted no matter how we voted. In the event UKIP won 2% of the vote and the LibDems won the seat with a 2% majority. In effect we had inadvertently voted LibDem – a party we both despise. I therefore have to agree with Nigel’s decision. The last thing we need is a whole lot of LIBDem MPs strutting their stuff in parliament. I am going to have to think very carefully about whether to boycott the vote altogether or spoil my ballot paper, or hold my nose and vote Tory.
There are no Tories in the Tory party they are all liars. It’s UKIP, TBP or spoilt paper. A hung parliament is preferable to this garbage.
Unrelenting media pressure, polls, and internal disputes within the party no doubt all played a part. But, Farage’s biggest fear was a hung parliament in which the Tories were outnumbered by a coalition of Labour/SNP and maybe Lib Dems. He would then go down in history as the man who lost Brexit by enabling a remain government and second referendum.
For most of his time people did not support him. Even at his peak in 2015 he (UKIP) garnered only 3.88 million votes. But now Leavers all pile in blaming him for pulling back. Too little and too late with their fickle support.
Nigel Farage lost the Brexit when he walked away from Ukip imp.
I’m starting to understand the plan. A hung parliament is the last thing the EU wants now. They run the risk of their deal (surrender treaty) not being signed and their worst nightmare, a free, independent Britain competing against them in trade, fishing, and just about everything else after a NO DEAL EXIT from the EU.
That’s why the EU has, through clever propaganda, split the vote by created a block of British voters that have forgotten that WE ALL VOTED TO LEAVE THE EU and think we all voted for a ‘deal’.
Of course, getting everyone calling leaving the EU ‘BREXIT’ was a clever touch.
May famously told us BREXIT means BREXIT.
The reality is BREXIT means whatever the EU wants it to mean.
And people believing they’re ‘voting for BREXIT’ will believe they’re doing the right thing.
I think UKIP supporters should be doing whatever they can to oppose the CONS where Farage has stood down.
Neither the EU nor Labour would want UKIP to gain any traction there.
Ukip need money to stand candidates, you seem to think they have it.
Isn’t it amazing how the Press suddenly give Nigel space in their ‘fantasy-sheets’ when the news looks bad for him?
I have suggested it before………..”stiffen the sinews……..” – Don’t forget – whatever you feel about the machinations Nigel has been forced to employ, who else will grasp the nettle, take up the cause?
For ‘gawds’ sake …………….quit the moaning, quit the complaining, just get out on the day and vote TBP.
If you follow this site……….you don’t have any alternative but to lend him your support.
If Farage had had the gumption to make standing down in Tory seats conditional on Johnson agreeing to introduce bill in the first parliament to replace First Past the Post with a fair electoral system, he would have been on a winner because the onus would then have been on Johnson not to throw the election.
It’s a pity we don’t have more courageous people willing to stand as independents. I’m sick of party politics. labour-Tory-Labour-Tory, and all the while our country continues down the drain. I will have no BXP candidate to vote for, but if there’s an independent leaver, they’ll definitely get my X. I realise it costs a lot of money to become a candidate and to campaign, but honestly no-one else is going to do it for us…sod the parties, it’s time to get behind a person who believes in this country and its freedom…..and vote for them.
Well said!
Meanwhile population replacement of this beautiful country continues, not challenged.
Migration Watch today’s tweet:
A new record of 3.4 million non-EU born workers in the UK labour market (rising by 157,000 in the course of just one year, while the number of UK-born workers only increased by 65,000).
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/ukandnonukpeopleinthelabourmarket/latest
The main reason Farage seemed to give for yesterday’s announcement (apart, of course, from ludicrously believing what Johnson promised) was that he didn’t want to run the risk of letting in LibDem candidates in areas such as the South West. Well then, just don’t stand in those twenty odd constituencies where there might be a risk, why withdraw another 300 candidates just to give the Tories a free run?
With the benefit of hindsight, it all started to go wrong when Farage started talking up a Leave Alliance with the Tories. Why would he do that when he knew the Tories’ “deal” was anything but Leave? That talk alone must have put off a lot of Labour supporting Leavers and, after yesterday, how many Labour supporters will now even consider voting for the Brexit Party knowing that it is now, as one poster said on another site, the Tory Party’s bitch?
This saga has now shone a light on the disadvantages of a political party being a limited company with no members. If it was a “proper” party then the members might have had a say in yesterday’s decision rather than it being imposed on its supporters who had given their time and money believing the leaders really meant it when they said they wanted a Clean Break Brexit.
They all should have stuck with Ukip they would never do a deal with the Tories, but Nigel has always been a secret Tory. I would not think his decision is due to lack of money doesn’t he have millions stashed away and in an offshore account in his name? It is just a pity Ukip is in the mess it is in at such a pivotal time as per usual!
He’s paid the Danegeld, so no surprise they instantly moved the goalposts and demanded more. Who would have guessed?
I am bereft. My Tory MP is unassailable, but since he voted for the third reading of the May bill – replying to emails with the most specious justification – and for Bojo’s BRINO, I was at least looking forward to adding my little cross to the national total of Brexiteers’ votes. Now for the first time in my long life I am disenfranchised. Not sure I can even be bothered to go and spoil my ballot.
And there will be no national measure of the dissatisfaction with the faux-leaver Tories. They will of course play the result, their win-by-default, as an endorsement of Boris’ duplicitous treaty. Empty feeling doesn’t get near it.
And why is it being overlooked that the virulently anti-Brexit media, DM especially, are now all for Bojo? That tells us all we need to know about his Treaty. But no one’s asking why so keen all of a sudden.
Phil – you have taken the words out of my mouth. Exactly. And the glee of the EU speaks volumes – smirks and smug yellow-toothed grins all round at the idea of signing this surrender treaty.
Like you, I am appalled that there will be no Brexit Party to vote for in our constituency. If TBP had said they’d field candidates in obvious Con Remainer seats, that would have been something at least. And I could have declined to put my cross against our MP’s name, and voted TBP instead – a fitting revenge. As it is, like you I feel disenfranchised and spoiling the ballot paper will bring no satisfaction. I really am at a loss – I feel utterly betrayed. Again.
For Farage to field general election candidates takes money, lots of money, and Banks has withdrawn his support from Farage, looking instead for future support from somewhere other than the BREXIT party. It’s a dirty game, with the EU funding their take over of our country with the unaudited trillions that flow in and out of Brussels.
Banks had not been funding the BXP.
I am sure there are plenty of other donors including the BP supporters, after all they are not members as they have no say in the direction of this Farage fan club, more mug them for joining it and believing his lies, not sure who lies most him or Boris, either way they are as thick as thieves imo.
I don’t get it. Why not just have told Johnson, OK we wont stand against any of your Party who are leavers in leave Constituencies.
Better still stand against ANY Candidates who are remainers in leave Constituencies. I don’t follow the doctrine of vote for Brexit and get Corbyne.
To hell with the consequences. A hung Parliament, so be it. There would be another election before a second referendum. And now we have your attention Boris . . .
As someone said on this site, Johnson needs to be afraid. Very afraid.
I have a conservative arch remainer mp, and three remain parties to vote for. It will take a few stiff drinks to get the courage to vote for one of the three who has best chance of deposing him. But I shall.
Yes, I am still spitting feathers. And still thinking of standing as an Independent Leaver.
Absolutely correct Biscotte. And I like Standing as Independant leaver. As I also like Viv’s excuse :- ” It’s your fault if weget a hung parliament again because you voted for a remain tory .
Absolutely right and Well Done.
Biscotte – you will need to move quickly as nominations must be in to your electoral services offices, well before 4.00 p.m. on Thursday (National unmovable deadline).
Far better to stand than to vote for a remain party and perhaps if you can include ‘none of the above’ into part of your standing name, you will pick up a large number of votes for that reason alone. You might even win, as there must be remainers too who will be tempted by that !
Great idea ‘The clean Brexit and none of the above candidate’, what leaver would not vote for that?
Totally agree, Biscotte. That would be my logic also.
A brilliant piece Viv. It was quite a shock and disappointment for me. Your analysis agrees with mine we must repair our damaged expectations deal with what is in front of us. You are right about our understandings they most likely will not be shared by the voters.
My conclusion was, mostly during waking moments in the night, was that information must be disseminated at every opportunity. No time left now to write more.
I understand why Farage felt he had to do a unilateral alliance but think it ought to have been more targeted not just standing aside in all 2017 Tody seats. In the NE there are at least four seats where a tiny swing from Lab to Con would put at least a potential Leaver in there or at least not a Commie aye-ing every attempt to Remain. Ukip were very 3rd place in 2015 in these so BXP likely would not come close to winning. Eg. Bishop Auckland and Stockton South.
Conversely where Ukip came a good 2nd in 2015 eg Hartlepool the Tories should have stepped aside to “get Brexit done” to use their reluctant phrase. There must be still a few Tory seats with a Remainer in that ought to be challenged by a BXP competitor. It’s helped the Tories a lot but not those who know have to spoil their papers.
Thing is though, what if TBP had stood against the Conservatives and we’d ended up with a Corby / Swineson coalition perhaps including another loony lefty to make up the numbers? Most likely we’d be totally f****d.
It’s a question of balancing up what we stand to gain by competing against the Tories compared to what we stand to loose and I’m thinking that Nigel Farage may have made the right decision as I don’t think TBP would have been able to win outright, no matter how much we’d like to see them give Johnson a good kicking.
This election was always going to be dangerously unpredictable and as usual we’re left trying to make the best of a very bad situation. Sometimes you just have to weigh up the odds and make a strategic decision.
It does p**s me of too though.
Sadly it might take a year or two of a Corbyn government to open the eyes of those who are too young to have experienced such catastrophe. There are too many voters who are uninformed, take the party leaders words at face value or vote for “their” tribe.
I’d be interested to know what you folks think is the likelihood of Corbyn soon being replaced if he did get to no 10? By a “Blairite” government?
Flyer, welcome to the ‘p*****d off’ club!
My mind is already made up; if TBP do field a candidate in my present constituency then he will get my vote. The poll numbers are as important as the result in holding Boris to account. We need him to feel threatened.
I was wondering if Boris was going to do a May and try and throw the election using TBP as the fall guy, so not our fault guv. Plopping Brexit in the Labour, remain side laps so they can cancel it for him once and for all. Nigel doing this has shifted the focus back on the Conservatives in their own constituencies. I am sure he didn’t want to but if all the others are bent on not carrying it through he had little choice. They need to be in it to win it. A presence in Parliament is obligatory or they cant influence anything coming down the tracks. Fingers crossed is all I can think at the moment.