“The PM has decided …” – no, not that she’ll leave as PM, but how she’ll deliver us into vassalage. Furthermore, Olly Robbins has gone to Brussels – not to apply for Belgian citizenship, as Verhofstadt and friends joked in that fly-on-the-wall documentary, but to submit the latest vassalage plan.
In a strange coincidence, ‘sources’ haven’t given the MSM any other titbits on Brexit. I’ll concentrate on the paywalled reports (here and here), the non-paywalled ones are here (DM) and here (Express). So – let’s step into the latest quagmire created by the PM:
“Theresa May will put her Brexit deal to the Commons next month in a vote that will determine her remaining time as prime minister. She told Jeremy Corbyn last night that in the week commencing June 3 she will bring in legislation implementing the divorce agreement with or without Labour’s support.” (link, paywalled)
This is a high-risk, desperate gamble for the PM:
“Mrs May has so far held back from introducing the Withdrawal Agreement Bill as she sought agreement from Labour that it would not vote it down. Defeat in the Commons vote would almost certainly spell the end of Mrs May’s tenure since it would bring to an end the parliamentary session and she lacks the authority to start a new one.” (link, paywalled)
It’s high-risk because an end to the parliamentary session means that the DUP can stop their agreement to support the PM in the HoC. For history buffs, here’s an interesting piece of information: this current parliamentary session is already the longest since the English Civil War (see here) – and by June or indeed July the PM will have broken all records … surely a historical achievement, no? More on how the PM plans to proceed:
“Mrs May wants MPs to come up with a compromise Brexit during the committee stage of passing the withdrawal legislation. To reach that stage, however, the Commons must vote for a second reading. The bill is expected to be introduced after MPs return from their Whitsun recess on June 4, meaning that the vote would be held the following week. (link, paywalled)
No ‘indicative’ or ‘definitive’ votes then, but the vassalage bill to be put on the table and the MPs to amend it during second-reading stages. It doesn’t take a genius to notice that this means she can show that she has done ‘her best’ and can wash her hands of anything the MPs add. Oh, and she can leave for her summer holidays, never (hopefully) to return as PM and never to have to face a GE again … genius!
The report in the DT (paywalled link) throws more light on a possible reason for the PM’s sudden ‘hard’ stance:
“Mrs May is expected to set a deadline for Labour to agree to a deal or end the talks by next week, as she wants to publish Brexit legislation before next week’s European elections. Mrs May is now prepared to put a tweaked Brexit deal to a vote in Parliament even if she cannot guarantee it will pass, as she has accepted she has “run out of road”. Her aim is for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill – the legislation required for Britain to leave the EU with a deal – to receive royal assent before Parliament breaks for the summer at the end of July. That would in turn trigger Mrs May’s departure, allowing for a Tory leadership contest to take place over the summer and for a new leader to be in place before the Conservative Party Conference at the end of September.” (paywalled link)
There you have it: it’s about herself, not about the country, not about Brexit proper. It shows clearly what the PM and her advisers want to achieve, with a nice threat hidden in the tail:
“Mrs May will publish the Withdrawal Agreement Bill in the week beginning June 3 to force MPs into a choice between the deal on the table or the possibility of Brexit being cancelled. One Government source said: “We are fast getting to a point where a decision has to be made either way. MPs in constituencies that voted Leave will have to decide once and for all whether they back Brexit or want to risk Parliament voting to revoke Article 50 when the current Brexit extension runs out in October. We can’t guarantee that the Brexit bill will pass, but if it doesn’t, the EU will also have a choice to make: does it offer Britain a better deal, or does it fuel the rise of the Brexit Party by risking Brexit being cancelled by MPs?” (paywalled link)
For ‘backing Brexit’ read: “support the PM’s vassalage treaty or the EU will kill Brexit”. Here’s what Nigel Dodds MP (DUP) had to say:
“DUP Westminster leader Nigel Dodds said: “If the Prime Minister brings the Withdrawal bill to the Commons for a vote the question will be ‘what has changed? Unless she can demonstrate something new that addresses the problem of the backstop then it is highly likely her deal will go down to defeat once again. […] For the Bill to have any prospect of success then there must be real change to protect the economic and constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom and deliver Brexit.” (paywalled link)
Of course the is no change, but that’s irrelevant because for the PM it’s no longer about the content of that abomination, it’s about showing that she has ‘done something’:
“Mrs May also needs to show progress is being made when she meets the executive of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs on Thursday. They are impatient for her to set out the timetable for her departure, and she will come under pressure to promise to quit before the summer regardless of whether she can get a deal through Parliament.” (paywalled link)
Obviously, this last endeavour by the PM to get her vassalage treaty through Parliament is nothing but her final (I do hope it’s final!) attempt to convince her grassroot members and Tory voters that they ought to stay with her and her sell-out while she looks blameless in a forthcoming GE.
Meanwhile, Mr Oily Robbins has gone to Brussels (here and paywalled here), leading to speculations or expectations that there’s more cooking on the vassalage deal. The DT’s Europe Editor writes:
“The Telegraph understands that Theresa May’s chief Brexit negotiator is back talking to his European counterparts and “stress-testing” new Brexit texts that have emerged from more than six weeks of talks in Westminster. But before anyone puts the champagne on ice, all the signs are that this visit will not amount to much more than a bureaucratic charade designed to keep Mrs May’s stated ambition to deliver a Brexit deal before she departs alive – albeit in a semi-vegetative state.” (paywalled link)
His interpretation of the Oily-visit – he’s meeting his German counterpart, Ms Weyand, so perhaps the reason for his trip is a bit more salacious? – is intriguing:
“So remind me what the point of Olly Robbins being in Brussels is? Very little, in all truth, barring a breakthrough in Labour-Tory talks that produces a deal that is then backed by a majority of MPs – which as noted above, seems deeply unlikely. […] Brussels does not expect this to happen. They are already bracing for Mrs May’s departure after the May European Elections and the arrival of a new Tory Prime Minister committed to renegotiating the backstop and – if that fails – walking away without a deal. With Westminster apparently stuck fast, it seems as if the real Brexit battle-lines are already being drawn up for October, when the current extension to Article 50 expires.” (paywalled link)
Of course, by that date – 31st October – she hopes to’ve gone into retirement, leaving the mess to whichever hated Leave PM is following her.
If you need one more piece of ammunition to fight for Leave, here it is. It’s not been reported in our MSM, for obvious reasons: our subjugation to the ECJ under the vassalage treaty must be kept tightly under wraps.
The ECJ decided yesterday that even hardened and dangerous criminals who have committed serious crimes in the EU country where they’re registered as ‘refugees’ cannot be deported.
Here’s the article in the German paper “Die Welt” – use your machine translator. Ask Remainers why they think our subjugation under the ECJ is such a wonderful idea – surely they can tell us?
KBO!
Interesting from an Ulster perspective. We do not trust the DUP. Their Euro candidate and current MEP, Diane Dodds has stated on several occasions ;’let it not be said that the DUP is a party of NO DEAL. So are they still prepared to go with the flow on this. One good reason why I will vote UKIP and TUV 1 and 2 for the election in Northern Ireland
I watched a documentary on the Maidan protests in Ukraine this morning and the thing that struck me most was the naivety of the Ukrainian government at that time. In hindsight it seems that the Brexit government have shown a similar naivety in dealing with the its opposition both at home and abroad. Like the Ukrainian government the British government have always been several steps behind the opposition and instead of nipping confrontation in the bud it has either stood idly by or given in.
But the hope is that like Ukraine the UK electorate will see that the status quo is not in their interest and will see what has happened over the last few years, not as the end, but as a new beginning.
A bit more Brexit insight:
“This is Why The EU Will Fall”
https://youtu.be/Ulo6rmOIll8
Thanks for your latest interpretation of the Westminster shenanigans Viv, but I am left with several questions:
The Times says “Defeat in the Commons vote would almost certainly spell the end of Mrs May’s tenure since it would bring to an end the parliamentary session …” Why should this be? Is there a sequence of events between a further defeat for Mrs May in the HoC and the end of the session?
Again from the Times: “MPs in constituencies that voted Leave will have to decide once and for all whether they back Brexit or want to risk Parliament voting to revoke Article 50”. Surely if Parliament revokes Article 50 there’ll be an almighty kerfuffle and possibly even a revolution that MPs have so blatantly gone against a properly-held referendum on which the result was accepted by all politicians?
And finally, in your explanation you say: For ‘backing Brexit’ read: “support the PM’s vassalage treaty or the EU will kill Brexit”. Does the EU have the power to kill Brexit? I would have thought that if it does have that power it would have done so already. How would that happen?
Perhaps I’m being thick, in which case I apologise – you’re obviously cleverer than me!
You’re not thick – the whole Parliamentary set-up is convoluted and arcane and hard to understand. So, from the top, and always remembering that The Times is ‘RemainCentral’:
1) if the WAB gets defeated again, she has no time to conjure up something else because the summer recess is coming and there’s no parliamentary business until they all come back in September. She cannot carry this over that recess, so: end of Parliamentary session with all that implies.
2) there are indeed MPs who’ve been advocating to revoke article 50 – it’s become a bit quiet about this in the run-up to the Local elections because those MPs know full well the consequences for their election chances should there be a GE if they go for revoking Art.50. The hope of Remain MPs here is that they all somehow survive the fall-out from EP Election and that there won’t be an imminent GE (which they don’t want) – so revoking article 50 could be done without immediately facing the consequences.
3) That’s the latest instance of scaremongering from May’s remain supporters. I don’t think the EU can take the WAB off the table, but it’s a nice ploy to scare wavering Tory MPs back into supporting the PM because they’re ignorant, more ignorant than we are.
Thanks Viv. 🙂
May’s very concerned according to the MSM about the Jeremy Kyle show, but not about the death of the conservative party, or British Steel which it is reported may go under causing huge job losses and leaving steel to be produced in Germany.
Glad to see she has been able to prioritise.
Agree 100%. My thoughts entirely! But….you have to remember that any publicity that takes people’s focus away from the ‘main event’ (ie Brexit) is good publicity when you are as hated and reviled as Treason May! The wretch has no shame!
Congrats Viv. Your the first person who has surmised that things might be different when we leave. Not the same old country uou’re used to. Possible headlines
Fumnny lookin coppers on the streets with poor english but fluent French and big guns.
Queen and family to Emigrate and put Windsor up for sale.
Parliament demolished for cheap housing or bought by Disney
Energy shortages
Mr and Mrs May changename and go to live in Berchtesgarten
New Education model
Our new Regional MEP’s expenses scandal
Dustbins on pavements not emptied
Strikes, strikes and more strikes
Large houses or Estates of such, Surounded by defenses.
HS 2 completed efficiently. Huge over-run, but HS 3,4,5, to 30 all started and
Every body wears sandals and robes.
Rationing.
Most of that is already starting to happen isn’t it? How about a new , BBC Documentary, ‘Death of a Nation’ .
Is Oily Robbins May’s eminence grease? Sorry.
That’s a very good one, MWT!
🙂
I’m afraid her eminence greasy or low-fat is actually Sir Mark Sedwill who has been handling her since she started out at the Home Office.
How is it possible for May to bring back the same WA before Parliament four times? Didn’t the Speaker rule against bringing back the same Bill twice? Whatever, if anything, has been concocted by May and Corbyn will only be a worse BRINO than the current one anyway. It’s all about getting something, anything, “across the line” now. The only thing Parliament will get a majority for is REMAIN. It’s time to end this pantomime farce. They have failed the British people.