Let’s start the day with a giggle! Some of us have long suspected that numeracy is an art hugely neglected by our educational establishment. Even counting on one’s fingers seems to be too difficult.
What has that got to do with Brexit? This: one of the top news is that in ten days, British officials will no longer attend EU meetings routinely:
“The process of Britain leaving the European Union will start in just 10 days’ time after UK diplomats were ordered to dramatically reduce contact with their EU counterparts. British officials will withdraw from hundreds of official meetings in Brussels as the deadline for leaving the EU approaches and will “only go to the meetings that really matter”, Steve Barclay, the Brexit Secretary, said. Instead the UK’s 180 EU-based diplomats will go to meetings that affect the UK’s key interests in areas such as security, defence and finance. The “Brussels boycott” will start on Sept 1, just days before Remain-supporting MPs return to Parliament and are expected to look for ways to stop the UK leaving on Oct 31.” (paywalled link)
The Times (link, paywalled) reports this with a typical Remain twist in their headline: “Brexit work starts in 10 days, but EU won’t budge on the backstop” while The Express (link) elegantly circumnavigates the difficult question of how many days there are to the 1st of September.
The giggle comes courtesy of the Daily Mail: “Britain will break off most contact with EU in NINE DAYS to ‘focus on leaving’” (link), writing in the text right below that:
“The government has toughened its negotiating stance with the EU for the second time in 24 hours today, telling Brussels that British officials will stop attending most meetings from September 1 to free up time to work on Brexit.”
Oh dear …! Still, let’s not be too harsh – at least they’re all clear that “Work on Brexit” is now official. What this means in practice is this:
“An estimated 800 meetings are scheduled in September and October but Britain will now only attend around a third of them. Mr Barclay said: “This will free up time for ministers and their officials to get on with preparing for our departure on Oct 31.” (paywalled link)
More clarification on what ‘our men and women in Brussels’ have been doing over the years and now won’t:
“Steve Barclay, the Brexit secretary, said: “An incredible amount of time and effort goes into EU meetings with attendance just the tip of the iceberg. Our diligent, world-class officials also spend many hours preparing for them, whether in reading the necessary papers or working on briefings.” (link, paywalled)
Meanwhile, Mr Tusk has rejected Johnson’s letter about the backstop, as expected. He did so – in a tweet:
“Donald Tusk, European Council president, hit back, saying “those against the backstop and not proposing realistic alternatives in fact support reestablishing a border. Even if they do not admit it.” (paywalled link).
For another little giggle, or perhaps smirk, here’s Jacob Rees-Mogg’s answer as he was doorstepped by SKY news asking him about that Tusk tweet yesterday:
“Mr Rees-Mogg smirked at the question, before dryly replying with a raised eyebrow: “You’ve got to be careful with tweets” (link)
Nice little video clip in that link! Here is the official reaction to Mr Tusk’s latest ‘njet’, reported in the paywalled DT:
“A Downing Street spokesman said: “We are deeply invested in the peace, prosperity and security of Northern Ireland and always will be and we have been clear that we will never place infrastructure, checks, or controls at the border. But it is clear that unless the Withdrawal Agreement is reopened and the backstop abolished there is no prospect of a deal. It has already been rejected three times by MPs and is simply unviable as a solution, as the PM’s letter makes clear. We are ready to negotiate, in good faith, an alternative to the backstop, with provisions to ensure that the Irish border issues are dealt with where they should always have been: in the negotiations on the future agreement between the UK and the EU.” (paywalled link)
Eagle-eyed Brexiteers will have spotted the key word: ‘negotiate’. Most of us are very suspicious about these ‘negotiations’, see yesterday’s column. Nigel Farage, writing in the (paywalled) DT today, is one such suspicious person:
“I truly hope that Johnson’s letter to Tusk is just part of him being seen to go through the motions, while really wanting a clean-break Brexit on October 31. I would cheer from the rooftops louder than anybody if he secured Britain’s independence. But when I read his letter, and Tusk’s response, my first sense was one of fear that a great stitch-up may be coming. That feeling has not gone away.” (paywalled link)
Nor has ours, Nigel, nor has ours! Today Johnson is going to Germany, to meet Ms Merkel. It’s going to be a very hot day in Berlin, with lots of sunshine and high temperatures outside. Indoors, Johnson will tell Ms Merkel:
“{…] that parliament cannot stop Britain leaving the European Union without a deal on October 31. […] tThe prime minister will warn the German chancellor over dinner in Berlin that there will be no Brexit agreement unless the EU backs down and agrees to scrap the Irish backstop. The tough approach comes after Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, highlighted attempts by Remainer Tory MPs to stop a no-deal Brexit during a one-hour call with Mr Johnson on Monday night. Downing Street believes that Brussels is unlikely to enter into negotiations over a new agreement while parliamentary attempts to stop a no-deal exit and potentially bring down Mr Johnson’s government continue.” (link, paywalled)
To be extra helpful, RemainCentral sacrifices a whole herd of pixels to chew over that question, under the headline “Can MPs stop a no-deal Brexit on October 31?” (link, paywalled), concluding that perhaps they can, but “it’s not straightforward”.
They repeat the scenarios from a VoNC and a GNU to Johnson just sitting it out. Their preferred option is that the HoC do what they did in March when they forced Ms May to ask the EU for an extension. It might just work again – or it might not:
“But MPs will need to make sure that any emergency legislation they pass is watertight. For example, if they simply compel Mr Johnson to ask for an extension to Article 50, they leave open a path for him to reject any extension that the EU offers.” (link, paywalled)
While the politicians here, in Brussels and in the EU member states play their games, I was amazed to read that, despite Brexit and despite all of us going to die when crashing over the Brexit cliff, in real life investors are flocking to the UK:
“British technology start-ups are enjoying an unprecedented investment boom, shrugging off concerns over a no-deal Brexit. High-tech companies have received a record $6.7 billion (£5.5 billion) in new funding this year, 50 per cent more than the same period last year. They are on course to secure more than $11 billion by the end of the year, easily eclipsing last year’s total of $8.7 billion, according to official figures. The data, from the government’s digital economy council, suggests that Britain remains the most attractive country in Europe for overseas tech investors.” (link, paywalled)
You don’t say! Of course, since it’s RemainCentral reporting these news, the Project Fear sting just had to come:
“The government’s Operation Yellowhammer dossier into the effects of a no-deal Brexit included a chilling warning for the sector. No-deal could “disrupt the flow of personal data from the EU, where an alternative legal base for transfer is not in place,” it said. Britain’s digital economy relies on the transfer of information between data centres here and the EU. According to the document, it “could take years” to restore data-sharing arrangements. However, these concerns have not dampened investors’ enthusiasm for the raft of “unicorns” — private companies worth more than $1 billion — to have emerged in Britain over recent years. Over the past two decades UK-based entrepreneurs have built 72 unicorn companies, according to separate government research. That compares with 29 in Germany, and 26 in India. The US and China created 703 and 206 respectively.” (link, paywalled)
I do wonder how long the Remainers will play their games, not only of trying to thwart Brexit but of bad-mouthing our country. Nothing, it seems, will be good enough, ever!
While we leavers think these are good news, we must not let ourselves be bamboozled by Johnson stunts. We must not lose sight of the now repeated statements that there will be ‘negotiations’ if the EU can be scared into them.
I repeat what I said yesterday: it is eminently possible that there might be a last-minute ‘agreement’ and we’ll be presented with ”A Deal” – the WA in new clothes, with lipstick on. This will be the same, Merkel-inspired vassalage treaty. That is the stitch-up Farage mentions. So, as always, we will
KBO!
Photo by Nick Kenrick. 
Robin Tilbrook’s legal challenge appeal has been refused by a single judge Details here: https://robintilbrook.blogspot.com/?m=1
I could be wrong but I believe there is a transitional period under WTO terms. It would prevent the EU imposing tariffs on goods exported by us into the EU for a set length of time (2 years?). Can’t remember where I got that from. Presumably it is reciprocal – we don’t impose tariffs on them either. So as far as trade is concerned leaving WTO makes no difference immediately. I’m still hopeful Boris will get us out 31/10. He is not stupid.
If the UK proposed a ‘standstill’ arrangement citiing GATT 24 whereby the UK-EU in agreeing to work towards a Free Trade Agreement keep trade as it is now pending the negotiation of a Free Trade deal a transition period could ast anything up to 10 years.
All explained here, courtesy of Briefings for Brexit:
https://briefingsforbrexit.com/the-mystery-surrounding-gatt-article-xxiv-the-crash-proof-exit-option/
Clearly,m the EU will not want to go down this road as, unlike May’s ‘deal’, it will not leave the UK tied to Vrussels with vassal status.
Enjoy! https://www.mikebarfield.co.uk/page11/files/page11_13.jpg
Succinct!
So there’s no deal Brexit. UK won’t build the wall and Ireland and EU cant afford to. In order to protect the integrity of the union there will have to be a border in the English channel, thus taking Ireland out of the EU. Careful mr verondkika you could become the author of your own downfall.
The Remainers card is to keep Brexiteers on the back foot while reneging on the referendum and claiming that Brexit means economic disaster. Ignoring the Remainers refusal to explain their position is going to put Brexiteers on the defensive sooner or later. “If the lie is big enough and repeated often eneough ………..” It shows the failure of the Brexit side that Remainers are allowed to get away with deceiving the public with dire predictions of economic chaos while hiding the freedom and independence that Brexit will bring?
I heard this morning that Boris may take us out on 31st with no deal arranged. Then riding high call an election. Win a workable majority taking out the TBP at the same time. Giving him 5 years unopposed and then bring back the deal(Treaty) again slightly doctored. I flaming well hope not. 🙁
If he calls an election soon after Parliament resumes next month and gives a date of October 31 or soon after, the House will be dissolved which will mean no Remainers’ plots can be activated before we leave. Bercow will be furious but there’ll be nothing he can do about it and Boris will sweep back into power with a huge majority and all TBP’s votes.
Bring back the treaty in five years? We’ll have to be very alert for that one.
The likely turn of events will be a VoNC from Corbyn on September 3 ( the first day its possible ) . Let us assume for now that he will win, with the aid of Tory defectors ( that’s by no means certain ) and practically all Lab / Lib / SNP /Green MPs.
That will force , after the 2 week ‘cool off’ period a general election. The first date for that would be October 24. Exactly one week before B-Day.
IF that happens practically every Tory rebel would have committed electoral suicide, and their constituency parties will cut them to ribbons. As we all know, MPs are selfish to a fault, so perhaps those rebels won’t rebel after all. But we can’t rely on that.
Of course the second thing that could happen is that armed with a 66% VoNC victory ( the required killer margin ) Corbyn or A.N.Other tries to form a government, probably off the back of promising a quick general election with Remain firmly on the cards. He or she ( the interim PM ) would have very little time to reverse the Oct 31 legal leave date ( B-Day ) but with much conspiracy and treachery likely, he COULD do it.
If successful I would not be the only person raising Cain on the streets on November 1 – Black Friday- There would be serious civil unrest this time.
Right now Boris needs to do 3 things. The first is to tell the EU to f*** o** in no uncertain terms unless they agree ( this week) to immediate renegotiations. He does need to be seen to try. The next is to cull (remove the whip) from all rebel Tory MPs and get them de-selected. He can’t trust them anyway, they will not vote for him anyway, so knocking them off is no loss, as no meaningful legislation can take place until he does get a proper majority ( he must have a November election )
The third is that he needs to de-fang TBP, and ASAP which he can do by bribing Farage either with a peerage or a couple of safe seats for him and a couple of cronies. Farage will then as usual, just throw TBP under a bus as long as he’s sorted. After Oct 31 TBP has no real power at all, but Boris still needs to knock them out.
UKIP is utterly irrelevant in all this. The only sane thing Kippers can do, although it might pain them, is to support Boris. Certainly NOT TBP.
The FTP Act section2 (7) states:
“(7)If a parliamentary general election is to take place as provided for by subsection (1) or (3), the polling day for the election is to be the day appointed by Her Majesty by proclamation on the recommendation of the Prime Minister (and, accordingly, the appointed day replaces the day which would otherwise have been the polling day for the next election determined under section 1).”
So the date of the election looks to be entirely in the hands of Boris who would (better) choose 1st Nov (or later.)
What a sad and sorry depiction of our politics. Nobody can be trusted; everybody has another agenda; and for all the big players it is all about power for me, me, me. Some time ago Ben Greene wrote a booklet about the British Constitution and the Corruption of Parliament. (ISBN 978-0-9932885-8-6 – available from the A.K. Chesterton Trust – http://www.candour.org.uk. I recommend it. In the meantime, it is about time we set about selecting our own independent-of-any-party constituency representative who will represent their constituents, not their Party managers. And require an annual review, just like any other employer would. Failure to meet constituency targets would thus be a gateway to deselection and replacement. On that basis we might never need another general election for years!
Ho, ho Bavo, you admit that UKIP is now irrelevant in the near future, so I can understand why you hate TBP. But I wonder if you would agree that without TBP we would still probably have the atrocious Maybot in charge, since it was primarily fear of TBPs success that scared Tory MPs into putting the despised Boris on the ticket. And don’t you think that, with Boris repeatedly talking about backstops and “negotiations” of the WA&PD, there is an essential requirement to keep scaring the Cowardly Un- Conservatives? And, basically who the hell else than PTB can do that? Revenge and spite is no substitute for getting political change.
Fair points well put Tony. I admit you are right. But the reality for the future is that the main event will be the Tories versus Momentum/Labour.
I agree with you about keeping them (the Tories ) under pressure, but ultimately the voting choice is obvious.
Vote Tory or Get Corbyn.
For 100 years the musical chair parties have been saying” vote Tory or get Blair, Miliband, Corbyninski”, OR the other way round.
For me, with reservations I admit, TBP is the best chance we have had in a generation to stop this insane cartel of government parties. It is profoundly undemocratic. Unless we take this opportunity, we shall have the musical chair parties for another 100 years. Never!
“I do wonder how long the Remainers will play their games, not only of trying to thwart Brexit but of bad-mouthing our country. Nothing, it seems, will be good enough, ever”!
Presumably the games will continue until they consider that their careers are best served by ceasing their games.
Yesterday, in a late entry in his Diary, Sir John Redwood raised the same concerns about a possible WA ‘comeback’.
So we’re obviously in good company being mistrustful: Nigel Farage, Sir John Redwood …
Every morning the first web site I visit is John Redwood’s Diary, even before a glimpse at the weather.
I trust him to ‘be untrustful’. His trust is provided free.
Now where is Nigel Farage’s diary, blog site or place of communication to his TBP supporters?
Behind a paywall, that is where it is.
Now I very much appreciate what you do here Viv, but it can’t be right that all those thousands of
Leaver’s who coughed up £25 to support Nigel, now have to PAY to hear what the leader thinks.
If he is getting payed by the DT, then I’m not so sure… that I do trust him.
Oh well, KBO.
And there’s even talk of another ‘transition period’, as if we haven’t had time to make the necessary adjustments.
if Boris even mentions a Transition again that will be the end of the tories, so on’t mention it again even in passing
Boris has already mentioned a transition Stuart. Some of the media show only a precis of his letter to Tusk but if you can get hold of a full copy you’ll find it says:
(my emphasis).
In yesterday’s Telegraph columnist Pieter Cleppe says the transition period will last until 1 January 2023.