Open letter written by Michael Keal

 

To whom it may concern –

I’ve found substantial circumstantial evidence suggesting that, for a person of average body mass, taking approximately 50 micrograms of vitamin D3 daily will greatly reduce the risk of a deadly cytokine storm in those infected by the COVID-19 virus, thereby improving their chances of survival.

This idea is based on the known correlation between the skin tone of incoming covid-19 patients and their outcomes which, given the absence of any other plausible explanation, strongly suggests that Vitamin D3 deficiency plays a role in the infection. However, what this doesn’t reveal is the actual concentration of D3 in the blood that constitutes a deficiency. This needs to be determined through measurement.

I therefore propose that the concentration of vitamin D3 in the blood of incoming covid-19 patients be routinely measured together with their blood group and that this be related to their outcomes. This, I believe, would allow a threshold for deficiency to be accurately determined through statistical analysis. In my perusal of the literature it appears that this is currently a matter of opinion!

Such a study should then provide insight into the overall efficacy (or not) of Vitamin D3 as a protective agent against severe covid-19 infection.

If appropriate, public policy could then be changed to strongly advocate vitamin D3 supplementation in the knowledge that this could speed the re-opening the UK economy and possibly open the way to a herd immunity-based COVID-19 policy as opposed to an attempt to eliminate the virus completely prior to re-opening the economy.

Being a unitary body I believe the NHS is uniquely positioned to do this. Indeed, it could even put Britain into a world leadership position regarding COVID-19 and be of political value.

Also, in my view, being a state run enterprise the NHS could and should be instructed to do their due diligence by researching all aspects of the COVID-19 disease with a special focus on vitamin D3 deficiency while the epidemic is still ongoing. This needs to be addressed urgently as in my view if the sunny weather persists, the epidemic will, in spite of the lockdown, soon be over.

Finally, if, as seems probable, viral load is a significant factor in COVID-19 transmission and severity of infection for example in the case of an infected unmasked person sneezing in a crowded train close to another unmasked person, this should also be revealed in the data as a small but significant number of outliers who are severely infected in spite of adequate vitamin D3 levels. Should this be found to be the case it should be confirmed, if possible, by speaking to patients and perhaps, if necessary, refined by experiment so that public policy could be amended accordingly.

It may well be that it is important for everyone to wear masks (or not) on crowed public transport and in other situations where social distancing is not feasible and this should be rigorously determined and not merely assumed as establishing a means of safely using crowded public transport it likely to have significant economic impact.

Public education around viral load should be undertaken once this aspect of transmission is better understood.

Finally, there is another aspect of viral load that needs to be considered due to the reportedly large number of symptomless infected individuals.

Although this may be due to factors linked specifically to the individual, such as vitamin D3 sufficiency, blood group, fortuitous genetics, etc. as suggested earlier, it may also be linked to the manner in which they were infected. For example, it could be that a person can become minimally infected by shaking hands with an infectious person which resulted in them building immunity without developing symptoms. If this can be established it might obviate the need for an expensive and possibly dangerous vaccine.

We’ve been shaking hands for a very long time, perhaps for a very good reason.

Here is the link to one of the better pieces of ‘substantial circumstantial evidence’ I was referring to at the beginning of my letter, linking to an article in the British Medical Journal.

 

Yours faithfully,

Michael Keal

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