Written by Prof. Anthony Coughlan
This article was first published by ‘Campaign for an Independent Britain’ and we republish with their and the author’s kind permission.
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Professor Anthony Coughlan, Emeritus Professor of Trinity College Dublin, explains how Boris Johnson’s election victory in December 2019 shocked the Irish Establishment and media into stunned silence. For three and a half years they blithely assumed that Brexit could be reversed. Only now is the reality of the UK leaving the EU sinking in.
Until the Boris Johnson Government’s election victory in December, most people in the Republic of Ireland assumed that Brexit would be frustrated by means of a second referendum to undo the result of the first.
After all, a second referendum was what happened in Ireland itself in 2002, when Irish voters had the temerity to reject the EU’s Nice Treaty that the year before. And the same happened when Dublin re-ran the referendum on the Lisbon Constitutional Treaty in 2009, following that treaty’s rejection by Irish voters in 2008.
Even if a so-called ‘People’s Vote’ to undo the result of the real people’s vote of 2016 did not happen, the Irish Establishment assumed that the UK/EU negotiations would at most lead to a Brexit-in-name-only. That was where things seemed clearly to be heading under Theresa May.
For the three years of Prime Minister May’s tenure of 10 Downing Street, the Irish media were obsessive in their coverage of every twist and turn of the UK/EU negotiations and the accompanying shenanigans at Westminster. Over that time, with scarcely a dissenting word from anyone, Irish policymakers and pundits painted Brexit as a disastrous mistake crying out to be undone. Brexit was represented as a catastrophe for the UK, with attempts to implement it bringing continual humiliation for its government and parliament.
Our Irish politicians, by contrast, remained staunchly europhile, bolstered by the solidarity of the other EU States, conventionally and semi-affectionately referred to as ‘Team EU’. This was the message the Irish public received and meekly absorbed.
Then came the thunderbolt of that exit poll on UK election night, 12 December last. Suddenly, for the first time since the 2016 referendum vote, a real Brexit hove into view. The confidence in Ireland that Brexit would not happen was shown to be just wishful thinking.
A kind of stunned passivity has since immobilised the Irish Establishment and media. They are still in a state of semi-shock. Mention of Brexit has virtually vanished from press, radio and TV. There is scarcely a word about it among campaigners in the Republic’s current general election, with polling day scheduled for 8 February.
One can take it that few people in the Republic have yet thought through the long-term implications of a real Brexit. Yet the Republic will be more affected by that than any other EU country.
For example, the main political reason why the Republic of Ireland applied to join the then EEC along with the UK in 1961, and eventually did join in 1973, was because Northern Ireland was joining along with Britain. All of the Republic’s political parties aspire to a united Ireland; if the UK joined ‘Europe’ and the Republic did not, the North-South border on the island would be strengthened.
The reverse position now applies. Now that Northern Ireland is leaving along with the rest of the UK, if the Republic seeks to remain in the EU, this must inevitably add new dimensions to the Irish border. Does the current generation of Irish politicians really want to be responsible for a new Partition of Ireland?
The fact is that Brexit puts ‘Irexit’, Ireland’s withdrawal from the EU, on the historical agenda. The Irish Establishment is so stunned by the fact of a real Brexit happening that there is as yet no public discussion about this. But that will change.
VAT unpaid imports move around the EU and are monitored throughout their journey, even to the extent of whole containers being X-rayed. The infrastructure exists and it should be possible, with negotiations in good faith, to work out a way of retaining that system in the UK, enabling the free flow of goods from ROI to the continent.
The UK has an interest in helping the Irish Republic become ever more prosperous, and I’m sure we would be helpful. The EU?
JF
Is there any reason why the Republic of Ireland lorries have to use Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom as a land bridge. They have ports just like any other country has line Rosslare and Dublin. Does anyone know what percentage of their imports comes through these or any other of the Republic’s ports, and indeed are Dublin and Rosslare deep water ports, capable of handling container ships. This has always puzzled me. I have seen HGV’s with Republic of Ireland registration plates come off the English Channel ferries and head north towards the M25 and M6 and supposedly head for Heysham or similar
Colin Hussey- They don’t have to use the UK land bridge, its just quicker and more economical.
See link below:
https://www.politico.eu/article/cargo-food-production-producers-brexit-burns-irelands-british-bridge-to-eu-markets/
Ireland is in the EU due to the financial balance that the Republic receives. – Nothing wrong with that, indeed utterly understandable !
The Irish thought that Brexit was an item that would either be watered down to Brino, or disappear completely, but they were wrong in that !
Ireland is now faced with a decision. – Their main trade is leaving the EU, and so will the EU be able to open a large enough market for Irish goods, and with a transport connect that omits the UK ? – This is possible, even likely, but will it be in the same volume as with the UK ?
Domestically their politics are in a state of change ! They face a century anniversary of the Republic’s formation ! Change is immanent ! Even the staunchness of the RC Church has undergone some revision !
Their big decision so far has been their Nation’s neutrality in WW2. – Many love the British, but others hate us, so there is a mixture of feelings towards the UK of GB ! – An interesting balance, but I’m sure we will know soon enough now !
Ireland can’t leave the EU! No, no, no – and just to make sure, Ireland are replacing their population so voters vote the right way in future (unlike 2002 and 2009).
Yes I get the message of this article.
It was all fine and dandy when both Ireland and the U.K were fully enmeshed in the Sovereign “Nation” of the EU.
But it won’t be so fine when it is only the UK that has become unmeshed and has regained it’s own sovereignty
It means Ireland remains in slavery and has only 1/27th effectiveness in the dictates of its own affairs and even less effectiveness in the wide world.
I seem to remember before the Brexit Referendum,there was a realisation that Ireland’s gravy train would cease with the EU and they would be better also leaving the EU as the majority of their trade was with the U.K. anyway
Just as I can see no case for Scotland regaining independence from the UK and then re-enslaving themselves in the EU, I can see a case for Ireland throwing off her chains and becoming a fully independent nation state once more.
It would certainly obviate any closed border problems
I haven’t heard how Brexit will affect Irelands use of the UK as a land bridge. Will their goods have to undergo one UK import and one UK export procedure, or will they be allowed to make use of our potential ‘free ports’?
Shirley – see my reply to Colin Hussey
Most Irish I know are Proud of their home country, and want to go back on holiday. Like Ex pats of all countries. But they are more proud of having got out.
So – proud to be Irish but too proud to live there?
We need others to follow us out of the EU to enable its destruction. Ireland would be a great start.
As you say JT. All Ireland and Britain would be a good start for a European commonwealth. Zero politics, treaties,Laws.etc Just a club, no rules. We have goodwill in the unlikeliest places. Just use bits you like. No obligations but friendship. make what you will out of that. Incidentally, Heath nastily dumped EFTA members in his eagerness to get his new Yacht complete with musculer young and sunburned winch monkeys. I have felt guilty for 40 years to the Norwegians who manned my uncles Minesweeper.
Mine is an ordinary family. In common with millions we have many astonishing stories and experiences and feats for just ordinary families. I and you will be proud. That is not to be disparaged by anybody. It is just there. As are friends.