On Brexit weather watch …
This morning let’s look firstly at events outside the UK which will influence the outcome of the trade negotiations. The effects of some of them are unpredictable at the moment because they will be felt globally. The effects of two other events will directly influence our talks with the EU.
The outbreak of the Corona Virus will certainly have serious consequences for the global economy. Reports about its spread are still dominating the front pages. The MSM in their wisdom have however decided that we plebs can’t be interested in such repercussions so have graced their front pages with reports on the Oscars.
We should however take note of these economic considerations because they are bound to affect us. So far, it’s only a guessing game by ‘sources’, but it’s like a little cloud on the horizon that must be watched:
“The “Boris bounce” will be dampened by the disruption caused to the global economy from the coronavirus outbreak, economists have warned. City forecasters predicted the expected rebound in growth in the first quarter will be scuppered by the severe slowdown in China’s economy and problems in global supply chains. The coronavirus could cost the world economy more than $280bn in the first quarter and break a 43-quarter growth streak“ (paywalled link)
For ‘Boris Bounce’ read ‘Brexit Bounce’ – but the MSM would rather elevate Johnson to the position of a miracle worker than credit ‘Brexit’.
There’s been another ‘economic disruption’ affecting not just us in the UK. ‘Tis that ‘Storm Ciara’ which we experienced yesterday. As everybody knows – weather doesn’t recognise borders. ‘No storm is illegal’, but wouldn’t you know – the people living across the Channel have given our Storm Ciara a different name! Here’s a brief report on the effects in different European countries.
I found it quite significant that the German MSM this weekend didn’t show the origins of ‘their’ storm in their warning forecasts. It was as if ‘Ciara’, renamed “Sabine” was simply, inexplicably, sweeping in ‘from the Atlantic’ … no British Isles in sight. Odd, that.
Staying with our EU neighbours we remember that Ireland went to the polls on Saturday. This headline, after the count, says it all: “Ireland faces MONTHS without a Government as Sinn Fein leads in general election count but Leo Varadkar rules out forming a coalition with them” (link) – read the whole thing, there are some lovely photos of the – still – Taoiseach looking aghast.
This result means that Brussels and Barnier will have to make do for the moment without their fervent supporter and EU lover. How much this will influence the coming talks remains to be seen, but it introduces some political uncertainty in addition to economic ones.
Coalition talks are full of danger and as Germany demonstrates, they can have unintended consequences. Let me go into some detail about that German ‘election scandal’. At first glance it looks like a storm in a teacup because it’s “only” about the election results in one of the German Länder, Thüringen.
This election took place in September last year and there were no outright majorities. The AfD, which is anathema to German Mainstream parties and their MSM, won 24% of the votes. Neither the CDU nor the Liberals were however going to form a coalition with them: speaking with AfD politicians is ‘forbidden’. Of course, the Reds, in the form of the SPD and the new party “Die Linke” – which is in fact the continuity party of the former communist regime in East Germany – won’t speak with them either, nor will the Green Party.
Coalition talks excluding the AfD have been going on since September. The newly elected Landesparliament had to elect the LandesPM, and after much wrangling, it came to the ‘scandal’ last Wednesday. The leader of the Liberals, which had got in with just a bit over 5% of the votes, was elected, in a secret ballot of those LandesMPs – and lo and behold, the AfD had voted for him!
The repercussions were such that Madame Merkel, on tour in South Africa, told the world this was unacceptable and that new elections had to take place. She even fired one of her Ministers who had dared to tweet a congratulation to that newly, duly elected Liberal MP. Here’s a reasonable summary in English, but being the BBC it doesn’t tell you about the ensuing outbreak of condemnation by ordinary Germans – not of that election but of the interference by Merkel.
‘This is not democracy’, Germans have been writing where allowed to. It’s interference from the top down in duly held elections. In addition, the combined Left, with the support of ‘antifa’, have now been attacking Liberals and their offices all over Germany, not just in Thüringen. They’re supported, verbally, by incendiary remarks coming from politicians of the SPD – who are of course part of Merkel’s government.
This ‘small scandal in a small Land’ in Germany isn’t over and will have repercussions on Merkel’s government which will certainly weaken her grip on the powers she has in the EU. That will then affect the trade talks as M Macron, unopposed, can now tell Barnier how to place the thumb screws to force us to stay In.
Closer to home, there’s the cabinet reshuffle on Thursday. ‘Feminists’ have got their retaliation in first, demanding that wimminz must be fully represented. That might have backfired (link) – or not. We’ll have to wait and see. One ‘reshuffle’ the whole Westminster village now bays for is of course the head of Dominic Cummings.
Our ‘Cummings Watch’ bore rich fruit, with a report and a comment piece yesterday morning, crowned by another one early today. As usual, they are all based on ‘sources’ and mostly are gossip plain and simple. The aim of these negative briefings is to get rid of him. In RemainCentral we read that:
“Dominic Cummings has turned his fire on a new target, threatening to take on two of Britain’s biggest defence companies for “ripping off the taxpayer”.Boris Johnson’s senior aide chaired a meeting last week on the government’s strategic defence and security review and vowed to tear up defence procurement rules. Sources said he singled out BAE Systems, Britain’s leading defence firm, and Babcock, which is responsible for building the Royal Navy’s two aircraft carriers as well as a generation of submarines.” (link, paywalled)
Goodness me – how terrible is that! ‘Ripping off the taxpayer’? Nah, never happened! Do these ‘sources’ in their zeal actually demand that the most senior SpAd must keep his mouth shut on everything affecting the government of the PM he is employed to serve? Next:
“In exchanges that became “heated”, Cummings urged officials to stop funnelling taxpayers’ money into expensive projects that frequently overrun in both time and costs. He is said to want to see fewer “bespoke” defence projects and for Britain to buy “off the shelf” from other countries. The meeting, which was held without the knowledge of some senior figures in the Ministry of Defence, saw a showdown between Cummings and senior officials in the Cabinet Office, who questioned his approach.” (link, paywalled)
Crikey. Do the sources, do the reporters, not notice that, to ordinary people outside their febrile Westminster environment, this makes Cummings sound like a hero? Never mind, Dan Hodges in the Sunday Mail had another go, based on a chat he had with some other SpAd in a pub: kitchen psychology at its finest. You can read this here, if you must.
The latest item on our ‘Cummings Watch’ list reads as if No 10 has now turned into some sort of mini- Versailles, with a pale version of a modern-day Madame Pompadour now having entered the fray:
“Explosive claims of a falling-out between Boris Johnson’s partner Carrie Symonds and his chief adviser Dominic Cummings over the Cabinet reshuffle emerged last night. Well-placed Treasury sources say Miss Symonds is backing ministers who say Mr Cummings’ aggressive approach towards ministers, officials and journalists is damaging the Prime Minister. The rift has been fuelled by reports that Mr Cummings urged Mr Johnson to fire two ministers with close links to Miss Symonds: Chancellor Sajid Javid and Defence Secretary Ben Wallace.” (link)
Words simply fail me! I don’t care if this is just another well-place piece of gossip – the fact that it rings true, that it’s used in the now general anti-Cummings campaign is sufficient to ask what on earth is going on!
I don’t care what Johnson does in his bedroom. I do care when his partner, unelected as she is, is influencing his policies. We know she’s an ardent Greenie – it’s not by accident that Johnson has now become another one fallen for the Green scam. That there is believable gossip of her Interfering in Johnsons’ cabinet reshuffle, aligning her with the faction that wants Cummings out, should make alarm bells ring loud and clear!
Are our votes now going to be scuppered not just by unelected Mandarins but by unelected ‘private persons’ who have extremely privileged access to the PM? Is that what ‘taking back control’ means?
All these are storm clouds massing on the Brexit horizon which need to be watched. The Cummings storm, manufactured by the Remain MSM, means we should be on Red Alert. One doesn’t need to be a political mastermind to predict that with Cummings gone Brexit will turn into the BRINO we don’t want.
That’s why I’m on Brexit weather watch and will
Photo by Ian Britton