The May Successor Race has barely started, kicking off with hustings today, and there’s already a huge scandal involving Boris Johnson. Brexit, as far as the MSM are concerned, has sunk below the horizon, as has the EU.
One might think that they have forgotten why this Leadership election has to take place. Given their Remain bias however they obviously recognise the importance of getting the Remain candidate Hunt into No 10 by all and any means. The starting shots for the mud slinging have been fired.
It is noteworthy that the two relatively Leave-leaning online papers (DT and Express) are not going into that much detail about the BoJo scandal (here and paywalled here) whereas the Remain papers (DM and the Times) provide all the salacious details (here and paywalled here). Of course, as any neighbour would do, taping the row and giving the tape not just to the police but to the MSM is totally normal …
This scandal will certainly influence the choice Tory Party members will make. The ‘theme’ of the ‘stop Boris’ campaign inside and outside the Tory Party is that his character is ‘questionable’. It’s worth remembering that the Hunt supporters inside the Tory Party, Ms Rudd first and foremost, are using that argument. They are of course the hard-core Remainers.
Looking at the few Brussels ‘news’ we can predict that a Hunt premiership will be their preference as it promises to be more of the same May disaster, just packaged a bit differently. An interesting little concession by the Taoiseach hasn’t had much impact:
“Mr Varadkar told reporters: “If there is a no-deal Brexit at the end of October, Ireland will be under an obligation to protect the single market. It’s our single market, our economy and our jobs are dependent on it and we’ll have to make sure that Ireland doesn’t become the backdoor to the European single market and we’re going to work with the Commission on mechanisms by which we can do that.The only way that I can see that we can be sure that we avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland is through regulatory alignment.” (source)
Ah – so ‘movement’ on the “Backstop” front is possible … even though, in other Brexit news, Mr Tusk and M Juncker reiterated that there will be no re-negotiations, but ‘we can talk’:
“Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker have laid down the gauntlet to Theresa May’s successor as they said the Brexit divorce deal cannot be changed but the terms of the future EU/UK relationship could be amended. Mr Tusk, the President of the European Council, said it remained the EU’s ambition to avoid a ‘disorderly Brexit’ […] However, Mr Tusk said that if Britain softened its negotiating red lines, potentially by seeking a closer pact built on a customs union, then the EU would be open to changing the proposed future relationship between the two sides.” (link)
Of course Brussels would rather see the ‘continuity May’ candidate, Hunt, as her successor, in the not unreasonable hope that he and they can achieve some cosmetic alterations, some soft concessions, to get that WA ‘treaty’ over the line, with all the implications to keep us as Brussels Colony.
As I predicted yesterday, there’s a tiny leak from that EU Summit which makes interesting reading. As always, the important item comes right at the end, and if one were to look only at the headline “Macron urges next PM to show respect” (link, paywalled), one would miss it:
“Europe’s leaders spent just 12 minutes discussing Brexit, with the time mainly taken up by a European Commission report that the EU was better prepared for a no-deal Brexit than Britain was.” (link, paywalled)
This, together with the statement by Sir Mark Sedwill earlier this month about the UK being well prepared, gives the lie to all the latest Project Fear predictions which are already being rolled out by the campaigners for a 2nd referendum (here).
Let’s savour for a moment the leaked remarks of M Macron from the paywalled link above:
“The EU does not care who wins the Conservative leadership race as long as the next prime minister is as “respectful” of other European leaders as Theresa May has been, President Macron said yesterday. The French president’s barbed comments will be seen by many Conservatives as an indictment of Mrs May’s negotiating position and an invitation for a new leader to play rough on Brexit. “All the way through the negotiations she’s been incredibly loyal and respectful, she never stood in the way, we sometimes disagreed but she never took the discussions or Europe hostage. […] I do not know who will come next, and I certainly do not want to interfere but I hope it will be the same sense of respect and seriousness that she had.” (link, paywalled)
Of course M Macron ain’t interfering in that Johnson-Hunt race, of course not! He’s only saying that a PM as ‘respectful’ and ‘loyal’ to the EU would be so much more welcome. After all, keeping us In has financial benefits for France, from Fisheries to the CAP, while a ‘disorderly’ Brexit would be ‘un horreur, n’est-çe pas’.
However, the Remainers and the Hunt supporters ought to think about consequences for the Tory Party and for Remain should Brexit have been denied on Halloween. They may well believe that even a Corbyn government would be no big deal were “PM Hunt” to be forced to call a GE after Halloween because we’re still In. Labour, after all, is being pushed to come out for Remain a 2nd Referendum and Corbyn may well cave in to this demand.
I don’t need to point out again that these are the old Remain Alice-in-Wonderland political attitudes which are found only inside the Westminster Bubble … but there’s a wake-up call for Remainers which they better not disregard.
ConHome has published a rather interesting poll result from YouGov – you really must look at the graph here! It shows that the Tory Party might survive in a GE post-Brexit, under either Hunt or Johnson, with The Brexit Party being squeezed out. However, if there’s no Brexit on Halloween, The Brexit Party will squeeze out the Tories, regardless of who is PM.
At the moment this is just an interesting play with numbers for politics nerds and Party strategists because, as you’ll have noted, this poll looks at a GE early next year.
However, you may also have noticed that this poll shows that the political landscape is changing: there are two blocks now: Remain in yellow and red on the one side, leave in blue and Brexit-Blue on the other. That is the real news.
A week is a long time in politics, but nowadays even a day is long enough for a political upheaval, as the BoJo ‘scandal’ shows. In this Leadership race, anything that can happen will happen. Be prepared for an avalanche of dirty tricks, with the Remainers having the advantage of support from the Remain MSM and ‘anonymous’ sources from Whitehall.
We must and will keep our eyes on the Brexit Ball and must and will work hard so the Remainers don’t get away with it.
KBO!
Arise Max Clifford, well I know he’s “down there” but I am sure he would have been proud of the stunts that are currently on down here
Now I know he would have been a believer that bad publicity was no barrier to the effectiveness of any sort of publicity and I am sure he would have had a hand in organising the latest stunts to upstage Boris’s rivals.
How about the BBC debate being so plainly biased that it would be evident that Boris was to be the only participant “got at”.? How about this latest non event Boris rumpus, it certainly beats Boris having to eat a hamster each morning to avoid the DT’s..and upstages Hunt’s protegee’s heroically expulsion of that Green Peace Holden…” ………….. HOw about the verbal cartoons of the letterbox ladies being allowable to a candidate who was born into a family where a Muslim Great Grandfather was an immigrant, if we defend the right of Muslim authors against whom a Fatwa was issued for writing cartoons then why shouldn’t Bojo do it.? Infact why shouldn’t he be the ideal politicians to ask the questions of the Islamic believing community that demand answers. I won!t go too deeply into this, but there are laws and practices used amongst this community which are not in accordance with British law.
I would say a man who boasts a Muslim immigrant great grandad MUST take on this task and at the same time give the lie to those who accuse the Conservatives and other parties of being inherently Islamophobic,.They are not, they are entitled to ask questions and point out irregularities though.
A sorry didn’t make myself clear “down there” as in the grave, although it may have been “up there” in the furnace.
‘[Johnson’s] character is ‘questionable’.
It’s difficult to disagree with that and as such one has to concede that he is unsuitable for the role of the UK’s Prime Minister. However. such is the state of the Conservative Party he is better than any of the other contenders.
So, we are about to be governed by the least unsuitable person the Cons could find. I do not find this reassuring.
JF
There’s a video of a rapper neighbour of BJ doing the rounds. I wonder if it was he who called the police.
it was ad he called the police, both he and his partner seem to be momentum supporters
I had a look at that yougov analysis, am I right in the figures quoted are percentages of those polled?
If so I don’t see how they have any relevance in projecting what might, happen in a “real” General Election, surely it will still be a matter of seats won or lost and that to my way of thInking will depend on the “deal” to be done between Nigel and Boris (our leader across the pond got away with far more character wise than our hero – it’s charisma that counts, PC is for the birds!).
Just on another tack, this word respect, how revealing and condescending I seem to remember when the Greeks were negotiating ( eventually being brow beaten into capitulation, even after a referendum) attar were said to be not negotiating in the “correct” manner. I’m glad we have not been found wanting in that direction.
Makes yer blood boil don’t it?
The smear campaign was right on cue (even recorded?) with the debate between Boris and his girlfriend. Boris must do what Trump did with his “pecadillos” and while admitting them treat them as part of modern life (unfortunately).
I hope Tory members understand that by choosing continuity May (Hunt) they can kiss any chance of winning the next General Election goodbye. Boris really is their only hope.
Tory throws out person from private meeting, calls for sacking, Tory had row with girl friend head line news, calls for investigation of his character. Leader of Brexit Party has milk shake thrown over him by protester, should have been acid comment reported as joke. Labour Deputy Prime Minister hits protester. Ah well ‘John will be John’ no action taken John remains DPM
Reading comments on the ‘Boris story ‘ in the D.E and the Telegraph early this morning, most would appear to be of the ‘so what’ variety and the embedded clip D.E of the news report of some T.V news channel of what some newspaper or other has had reported to them , all in hushed concerned tones by a reporter is the best sketch since Morcombe and Wise. I’m ‘exploring the possibility’ ( latest’ in’ phrase) whether to be triggered, offended, shocked stunned frightened or confused this morning to be honest. What’s worse in this country, the politicians or the MSM. what a pathetic spectacle they all are. And to think people pay to read and watch this rubbish.
Go for being ‘triggered’ and ‘offended’, Norman – it works in any situation because only ‘hurty feelz’ need to be shown, not, gulp, ‘facts’ or ‘reasons’ for being shocked or confused.
One delicious item not being mentioned is of course that Mr Fields is a Hunt supporter.
I thought they were momentum !
Do you mean he rides to hounds? On no, that’s another wind up subject isn’t it !
🙂