Calais Harbour

 

In the run-up to the G7 summit this weekend and in the absence of ‘sources’ who are still on holidays, Brexit ‘news’ are scrappy – but as ‘many a mickle makes a muckle’, we’ll look at these scraps to get a current Brexit picture.

Johnson is back in sunny Bank Holiday Britain and the Nay-Sayers are beginning to look a bit pathetic now.

Firstly, there are the MPs with their ‘Remain Alliance’. They have now decided to stop their ‘stop the no deal Brexit’ campaign in Parliament for the duration of those 30 days Merkel has graciously given to Boris to work out how to get rid of the Backstop:

“Tory Remainer rebels are set to delay their attempts to stop No Deal until Angela Merkel’s 30-day window to scrap the backstop has expired as Boris Johnson was given a Brexit reprieve. […] Without the support of a Europhile grouping of approximately 30 Conservative MPs any move against the PM is likely to be doomed to failure.” (link)

Then there’s  the latest doomsday prediction by Mark Carney, still Director of the Bank of England, under a lovely headline:

“Another Doomsday No Deal Brexit warning from Mark Carney: Bank of England Governor says sterling would fall, inflation would rise and he would be forced to slash interest rates” (link)

That’s known as ‘click-bait’, because the text shows that Carney was a bit more cautious in his pronouncements:

“Mr Carney said last night: ‘In the event of a No Deal, No Transition Brexit, sterling would probably fall, pushing up inflation, and demand would weaken further. Mr Carney added: ‘In my view, the appropriate policy path would be more likely to ease than not.’ An interest rate cut would boost millions of mortgage borrowers by reducing the amount they have to pay their lender.” (link)

That’s not really that doomsday-ish. Carney must have known of the Treasury plans for the autumn budget. The Times reports that Sajid Javid is

“[…] preparing the ground for a no-deal emergency budget in the fortnight before Britain leaves the European Union, The Times has learnt. The chancellor is poised to ask the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to begin work on forecasts for a no-deal Brexit within days. Mr Javid is expected to delay a final decision on whether to push ahead with the budget until after the European Council meets on October 17, which is seen by Downing Street as the last opportunity to strike a deal with the EU. However, he is expected to tell the OBR to prepare the forecasts within the next fortnight so that the government is in a position to hold an emergency budget if it needs to. Dominic Cummings, the prime minister’s most senior aide, is understood to be pushing for such a budget to stimulate the economy before a potential general election after Brexit. Measures under consideration include reducing VAT and easing regulations with immediate effect. Ministers have held discussions about a temporary, one-year cut in VAT from 20 per cent to 17.5 per cent, its level in 2011. Talks are continuing about other policies, such as cutting stamp duty.’ (link, paywalled)

Other preparations for Brexit are also underway with some interesting cross-Channel initiatives. We reported yesterday on the many ‘mini-deals’ in the works for whichever Brexit we’ll get.

Thus, while German food exporters allegedly told some reporters that they might not bother exporting to the UK in the case of a ‘disorderly Brexit’ – see here – the British government on the other hand is in talks (‘wining and dining’!) with the president of the Calais region to limit potential  traffic problems in case of a no deal Brexit (link, paywalled). Moreover, ministers are planning an ad campaign aimed at foreign truckers about possible difficulties (link, paywalled).

In the wake of Johnson’s visit to the two EU grandees, a lovely spat is developing between the EU and the UK about the Backstop. Macron and the EU are saying that the ball is in our court (link). A former director of the Border Force batted that particular ball right back to the EU:

“Tony Smith, a former director-general of the UK Border Force and a member of the committee tasked with finding alternative solutions to the backstop, challenged the EU to set out its objections to proposals to remove the insurance policy against the return of a hard border in Ireland. The EU can no longer simply ignore it,” Mr Smith said yesterday, adding that the EU should study the plans, “and give us a detailed analysis, saying what we have done right or done wrong” (link, paywalled).

Well, the EU didn’t ignore it, they simply rejected it in their customary fashion:

“An EU source was quick to pour cold water on the proposals.“It’s a more elaborate version of ‘trust us’,” they said.” (paywalled link)

Here’s another instance of ‘mini deal’ talks: 

“Priti Patel, the home secretary, will hold talks with her French counterpart about migrants crossing the Channel in small boats after the prime minister said that those who did so were breaking the law and would be sent back.” (link, paywalled)

That announcement was of course followed by the usual howls of vituperation from the usual suspects:

“Christine Jardine, the Liberal Democrats’ home affairs spokesman, said: “It is just plain wrong for Boris Johnson to label refugees crossing the Channel as ‘illegal migrants’.” (link, paywalled)

Oh and btw, there are these former ambassadors who wrote a letter to the Times, urging Johnson to tell the leaders at the forthcoming G7 meeting that he is seeking a deal because:

“No-deal represents the biggest unilateral abandonment of those interests in modern British history. It should not be allowed to happen.” (link, paywalled)

It’s no surprise that the top signatories were ‘our men in Brussels’. It’s a good thing that they all seem to have retired by now:

“Sir Nigel Sheinwald, Permanent Representative to the European Union 2000-03 and Ambassador to the United States 2007-12; Lord Kerr of Kinlochard,Permanent Representative to the European Economic Community/European Union 1990-95 and Ambassador to the United States 1995-97; Lord Hannay of Chiswick, Permanent Representative to the European Economic Community 1985-90 and Permanent Representative to the United Nations in New York 1990-95; Sir John Grant, Permanent Representative to the European Union 2003-07; ’(link, paywalled)

Johnson warned in a speech back at home yesterday that things wouldn’t be easy (link) Johnson’s top advisor Dominic Cummings also gave a warning which  is rather interesting:

“Angela Merkel will not be Britain’s “saviour” and will not come to its aid over Brexit, the prime minister’s most senior adviser has warned. Dominic Cummings said that Boris Johnson would not repeat his predecessors’ mistakes in expecting the German chancellor’s help. He said: “For ten years this building [No 10] under David Cameron, George Osborne and Theresa May has looked to Angela Merkel as the saviour. She is not. She didn’t help them out, she won’t help here.” (link, paywalled)

We’ll have to wait and see if this helps Johnson to decide to bin the Merkel-May WA! More:

“He [Cummins] told a meeting of government special advisers that ministers were working to get a Brexit deal with Brussels, but nothing would be decided before the European Council meeting on October 17. He said that Robert Peston, ITV’s political editor, was right to suggest it would go down to the wire. Peston earlier quoted a senior Whitehall source who said: “Merkel told Boris . . . that inevitably, deal or no-deal won’t be decided until ‘the last minute’ of the EU Council 17-18 October.” Mr Cummings said that by then it would be too late for Tory Remainers to stop no-deal.” (link, paywalled)

That ought to put the plans of Corbyn and of the ‘Remain Alliance’ into even more disarray. The next weeks will certainly be interesting!

Let’s not overlook the fact that all these scrappy Brexit news do not address the point made by Tory MPs, namely that the May WA is unacceptable, with or without the Backstop.

Finally, if you needed another reminder of how the EU works it’s this:

“Earlier on Friday, Emmanuel Macron spearheaded a European charge against Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro as a war of words intensified over raging fires in the Amazon basin ahead of this weekend’s G7 summit in Biarritz. France joined forces with Ireland in threatening to block a trade deal with South America unless Brazil takes action to stop vast tracts of the Amazonian rainforest from burning.” (paywalled link)

Disregarding the catastrophe this fire represents for the Amazon and Brazil, this is the point: the EU is prepared to use Treaty negotiations to force other countries to do as they’re told by the EU!

Never forget that this is in store for us if Johnson accedes to the EU and accepts a cosmetically updated WA! 

 

KBO!

 

Photo by delegopa

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