Mr Cox, the Attorney General blessed with a booming but mellifluous voice, is off to see M Barnier later today. As we all know, it’s about the Backstop, and about the so-called “Star Chamber” of the ERG: will they accept what he comes back with?
A little vignette in the DM caught my eye this morning – apparently Mr Cox tweeted an image of the Duke of Wellington … That made the DM commentator Andrew Pierce ask if that wasn’t a bit mischievous, as it referred to Waterloo … Oh dear. No, it wasn’t, because the tweeted image (it’s in the article) is of the Iron Duke in his much later years, when he was a Tory politician and PM. That historical reference seems to have eluded Mr Pierce. In any case, even Wellington would not have prevailed at Waterloo had the Prussians fought on the side of Napoleon, as they do now in the EU. So don’t mess with the Iron Duke where I can see it – I will call you out! Now back to today’s affairs.
Since there’s ‘nothing to see’ until Mr Cox comes back, the attention of our MSM has turned to the ERG again, the ‘hard core ultra Brexiteers’. According to The Times (paywalled), they’ve warned Ms May not to try and present them with a last-minute fudge:
“Tory Brexiteers told Theresa May last night not to ambush them with a last-minute legal deal with Brussels on the Irish backstop and expect them to vote in favour of it next week. Leaders of the hardline European Research Group (ERG) said after a meeting yesterday that they expected to see details of any agreement struck between Geoffrey Cox and EU negotiators well before next Tuesday’s “meaningful vote” in the Commons. They added that they would back a compromise only if they had the time to consider it in “good time” to “form a judgment in advance of a vote”, adding: “Our primary objective is a proper analysis.”
Translated, this means: “give us enough time and we may come up with a compromise we can sell.” More smoke and mirrors, I’m afraid. Our ‘friends’ in the EU – the fabled ‘Brussels sources’ – have already declared their position:
“According to Brussels sources, work on the assurances must be completed this week ahead of the next ‘Meaningful Vote’, which is expected to be held on March 12.” (link)
Are they in cahoots with the ERG by any chance?
Far more infuriating is this passage:
An EU diplomat familiar with the Brexit talks insisted Brussels would not allow a text to be presented for MPs to vote on unless pre-agreed by the bloc’s negotiating team.”(link, my bold)
So Brussels now decides what our elected representatives are allowed to vote on? This, dear friends, is what Remainers want: diktats from the EU … rub their noses in it!
The ‘ultra-hard core etc Brexiteers’ have furthermore come out with some forceful statements in the run-up to next week’s crucial vote. They don’t seem to be too confident that Mr Cox will come back with something palatable:
“Theresa May has been warned she must whip her MPs to keep a no-deal Brexit on the table in a vote next week as Geoffrey Cox travels to Brussels for make-or-break talks with EU negotiators. Senior Eurosceptics are convinced Mrs May will lose a vote on a revised Brexit deal on March 12 because they do not expect the Attorney General to win meaningful concessions on the Irish backstop. They are now planning for the votes which will happen on the following two days, when MPs will be asked whether no deal should remain an option, and whether Brexit should be delayed. (paywalled link, my bold)
One would like to know who these Cabinet ministers are, and why, unlike the Remainers, they are keeping their heads below the parapet:
Two Cabinet ministers are among senior party figures who have told the Prime Minister that allowing MPs to block no deal would be a disaster because the EU will treat Britain as a soft touch. It came as Philip Hammond, the Chancellor, faced a backlash from his own colleagues over plans to “blackmail” them next week with the threat of losing a larger than expected Brexit dividend if they vote against a deal.” (paywalled link, my bold)
Well, what about that then! Buying votes on the one hand while threatening to take money away if the vote isn’t ‘correct’: is that how our ‘betters’ in Cabinet now decide issues of national importance? Blatant bribery and monetary arm-twisting – how far have our Remain politicians sunk! Just what one expects from conniving knaves …
There was another interesting development which hasn’t made it into the MSM so far. It’s an article by Martin Howe QC – him of the ‘Star Chamber’ – who explained why risking an extension to Article 50 would not be the end of the world: “An Article 50 extension would betray the referendum result and should be opposed; but if it is forced through we are still enormously better off than with Mrs May’s deal.” Do read it – his arguments are quite compelling.
However, the fact that he did write this essay at this particular time makes me ponder: does he, like some Tory Brexiteers (see the quotes above) think that Mr Cox won’t come back with a proper solution to the backstop? And does he and those Tories expect Ms May to lose the vote next Tuesday, with the HoC then voting to extend Article 50 on the following day? Is he thus preparing us for the next stage?
It might also be a warning to the EU and M Barnier, that such extension won’t be to their liking. After all, there are the elections to the EU Parliament in May. M Macron has already gone into full electioneering mode, writing a letter published across the EU member states – scroll down here to find the text – and while he foams about Brexit, it’s obviously about not voting for the ‘bad populist parties’ come May.
One would like to think that the prospect of five more years of Nigel Farage in Brussels might concentrate the EU minds wonderfully when sat across the table from Mr Cox this afternoon …
24 days to Brexit – KBO!
I know this sounds ridiculous but what is the betting the EU will wait until 24 hours before Ms May’s meaningful vote is due to take place before issuing documents regarding the ‘backstop; and even then it will be a long tome of gobbledegook, written in very small print and all in French. There will be a limited supply of copies of this ‘sacred’ document to circulate to all 600+ parliamentarians so the majority of them will not have a clue what they are voting for. After they have voted it through some clever clogs in the government will say “now we have voted for the ‘Withdrawal Agreement’ we had better read it.”
Ken ‘thingy what’s his name’ you mean , you too have a long memory Lidian , most people i’m afraid do not .
“drainpipe” – perhaps “sewer” would be a better description as they are often a home for rats.
Rodents are God’s creatures. The Tories and their puppetteers are Satan’s creatures.
Too much focus on the “backstop” whilst everything else in May’s WA is an ongoing disaster for the UK. Trust a politician at your peril; obviously with a tiny number of exceptions.
Typical Tory protocol; snake oil, smoke and mirrors. They are Masters at it, that’s why they like lawyers so much. The brute fact is that whether WA gets through/no brexit , we will be stuck in the EU till kingdom come and paying for it long after all the other countries have left (!) , bearing the brunt of the UN Global Compact for Migration dictated and enforced by brute means by the EU, a full blown totalitarian 3rd world state with all that’s good in our culture wiped out. I’ve written to newspapers numerous times saying this in a variety of ways.
And beware, the Tories are still using everysingle trick in the book to try to to neutralise UKIP; even now they’re still scared of a UKIP resurgence, as it is the ONLY genuine anti -establishment party.
This is a good read from Brexit Central, if only just to cheer yourself up. I’d like to think it’s true but there seems to be so much corruption in government that I just don’t trust them.
” Deal or no deal, here’s why Brexit cannot be stopped ”
https://brexitcentral.com/deal-no-deal-heres-brexit-cannot-stopped/3/
more years of Farage in the EU parliament..for which party now ?
Tories
If those in the HofC were not so ‘up their own a***s’ they would have taken the referendum decision of the people, that they say they represent, signed Article 50 within the month, and then ended our membership. After that some negotiation could have taken place for possible trade and general accommodation with the EU ! ….. Instead we are where we are, being lead by an utter clown of a PM who is clueless in this matter ! I feel we could have done better than send in a failed Tory housewife !
Mike,
How right you are.
Another of my rules of thumb… She would do well to listen to
KISS, Keep IT Simple Stupid
Yes totally correct, but think of all the media pundits , lawyers and misfits in the H.O.C/ HOL who would not have had a ‘platform to talk’ and all the status they would have lost ,not to mention the money.
Pity they cant muster the same enthusiasm to shout about the continued merger of H.M Military, but that doesn’t matter I suppose, just like the sell off of the British manufacturing base didn’t.
Must be great living in lalaland I wonder how long it will last?
This is lawyers for you at you and to you etc.
This would provide for generations of lawyers in luxury. Whilest solving nothing,
OUT’
Listening to lawyers. ? Ridiculous.
TG, obviously you have the same opinion of lawyers as I do. I’m sure many more agree.
Thanks Viv, for your useful summary, as usual.
I post here
https://lawyersforbritain.org/risking-an-article-50-extension-is-miles-better-than-taking-theresa-mays-deal
a further link to the Opinion by Martin Howe, Q.C..
This link is to the lawyersforbritain website which contains many other articles, written from a legal perspective, and illustrating inter alia why WTO terms are not to be feared, and why Mrs May’s and Mr Robbins’s ‘deal’ is the worst of all possible worlds. YES ~ MUCH MUCH worse than remaining a member of the E.U.
Yesterday’s article by Mr Howe provides compelling argument to demonstrate that far from an extension [ that is of EU membership ] till end 2020 being something to fear, it is actually enormously superior to the ‘Withdrawal Agreement’ [ I think someone else has pointed out that in truth it is neither a withdrawal nor an agreement, but let that pass for the present.]
Of course we on this side of the Brexit fence would far rather leave on WTO terms at the end of March, put up with whatever temporary disruption this entailed, grab our freedom and march on into the sunny uplands of sovereignty and freedom to trade with the world, freedom to control our own borders and all the rest of it.
However, in the real world of the grossly undemocratic ‘parliament’ which FirstPastThePost lands us with, stuffed full with unreconstructed Remainists, this is simply not going to happen. Mrs May has, in effect, removed WTO Terms from the possible outcomes.
Please read Mr Howe’s piece ~it is difficult to see how anyone can argue against it from a legal basis : the W.A. is just worse worse worse than remaining till end 2020 on every single count. The W.A. is remaining with all kinds of expensive knobs on, and especially, with a hard padlock ~ the wretched ‘backstop’ ~from which there is zero unilateral escape. At least while you are actually a member of the EU you do have an unilateral right to LEAVE !
Anyway, please do read and disseminate Mr Howe’s piece. It is brilliant.
No wonder Cameron banned him from being a Conservative candidate ~his brilliance in Parliamentary debate would cast inferiors like the Attorney General ( all Rumpole blunderbuss and no argument ) into too obvious darkness.
https://independencedaily.co.uk/proposed-policies-ukips-leadership-membership-consider-part-one/
https://independencedaily.co.uk/proposed-policies-ukips-leadership-membership-consider-part-two/
Rhys Burriss
‘No wonder Cameron banned him from being a Conservative candidate ~his brilliance in Parliamentary debate would cast inferiors’
That reminds me: And what of Dan Hannan?
Dan who?
Martin Howe’s paper very useful. but made a nasty little swipe at UKIP at the end though, saying that Farage’s new party would be as much of a headache for the tories “as UKIP were in the past.”
In my opinion the Tories are actually behind Farage’s new party, its just Tories rammed down one drainpipe then rearing their re -branded ugly heads from some other drainpipe.