For us Leave voters, the Tory leadership contest has now become very interesting indeed. Today, Boris Johnson will launch his campaign, and the ‘Stop-Boris’ front is in full fight-mode. It looks more and more as if the Remainers inside and outside the Tory Party are suffering from a collective death wish, fuelled by fierce delusions. Take for example the poll in the (paywalled) DT today:
“A new poll suggests that Mr Johnson could win a landslide victory in a general election if he wins the Tory leadership race.The ComRes poll suggests Mr Johnson could win a majority of up to 140 seats as the only leadership candidate who could beat both Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage at the ballot box. It shows that if Mr Johnson becomes the next prime minister the Tories’ vote share would increase from 23 percent – four points behind Labour – to 37 per cent among those who expressed a definite preference for one party, 15 points ahead of Labour and enough to deliver an outright majority with the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems neutralised.” (paywalled link)
We all know that polls are notoriously skewed, but one would think, would one not, that this ought to give the anti-BoJo Remain Tories something to think about? Especially when that same poll shows that, should Rory Stewart become PM, TBP would win hands down (see here)? Will they heed Johnson’s warning:
“[…] that the Conservative Party will “kick the bucket” unless it delivers on the verdict of the 2016 referendum vote to quit the European bloc. “Delay means defeat, delay means Corbyn,” the former foreign secretary is to tell Tory MPs.” (link)
It seems that for a Remainer, the answer is obvious: ABB (anyone but Boris) so we can Remain – forget Party, forget Country, forget Democracy. There’s worse. In their drive to keep us in, the Remain MPs have come up with a new plot.The Times reports the details:
“The Commons votes today on a simple motion that, if passed, will seize control of the parliamentary agenda from the government for a single day. At that point MPs will be asked to vote on legislation that would make it illegal for a future prime minister to prorogue parliament (end a parliamentary session) and push through a no-deal Brexit. They might also book more time for Brexit debates, meaning that a future prime minister will not be able to ignore the will of MPs or pursue a policy that does not have the support of the House.” (link, paywalled)
‘Ignoring the will of MPs’ – that would be awful! Far more so than ignoring the will of 17.4 million Leave voters. And voting to make a parliamentary instrument (prorogation) ‘illegal’? Trampling on our unwritten constitution to Remain – extraordinary! More on that below, but first see this:
“Tory rebels, including Sir Oliver Letwin, who is backing Michael Gove for the leadership, and Dominic Grieve are supporting the opposition parties, prompting anger from Tory Brexiteers. Steve Baker, who endorsed Mr Johnson for the leadership at the weekend, accused Sir Oliver of “unconscionable” behaviour. “He is bringing closer a general election which could leave the Conservatives holding as few as 26 seats,” he said. Sir Keir said parliament must act against a no-deal prime minister intent on taking Britain out of the EU by the end of October. “The debate on Brexit in the Tory leadership contest has descended into the disturbing, the ludicrous and the reckless,” he said. “MPs cannot be bystanders while the next Tory prime minister tries to crash the UK out of the European Union without a deal and without the consent of the British people.” (link, paywalled)
Blinkered and in love with their own Remain rhetoric – that’s the Tory ‘rebels’ and Sir Keith Starmer (Lab). They still haven’t got it that the EU won’t renegotiate – here’s the latest:
“As part of the EU’s hardline approach to opening new Brexit talks with the next British prime minister, Ms de Montchalin confirmed the bloc is not prepared to reopen Theresa May’s hated divorce deal without the guarantee of a second referendum or general election first. The French Europe minister insisted Mrs May’s deal is the only way to secure an “orderly” exit from the bloc. Ms de Montchalin said: “If Britain does want to leave, and if it wants to leave in an orderly fashion, then this is the way it must do it.” (link)
There is one point in this which the Remain MSM are busily not talking about, and that is the question of proroging Parliament. You can be sure it is exercising the minds of the Remain MPs because this could be used to drag us over the Halloween deadline of Oct 31st, i.e. Leave with No Deal – and there’s nothing the Remain MPs could do about it. That’s what their proposal today is trying to prevent.
Mr Cox, the Attorney General, said prorogation was not ‘unlawful’ but warned that it was ‘improper’ and ‘unconstitutional’. Henry Hill writes in the (paywalled) DT:
“But what does he mean by ‘unconstitutional’? In a country like the USA, with a codified constitution, ‘unconstitutional’ is just a specific and especially serious version of ‘unlawful’, where the law in question is the Constitution. The United Kingdom, famously, has no such document. We must therefore assume that Cox is using the word to mean that prorogation would breach the unwritten rules and understandings that form a central pillar of our (and in reality, every) constitution. In short, that it would be extraordinarily controversial.” (paywalled link)
In the following part he illustrates that such extraordinary measure can now be contemplated because of what went on before:
“A political prorogation would be an inflection point in our politics, […] It threatens to make a battlefield of the entire constitution, further inflating the stakes of what is already a deeply charged and divisive political conflict. That we are at the point where it is seriously being considered shows how dangerous it is to start playing fast-and-loose with the rules of the game for short-term advantage. Those who cheered John Bercow when he bent the rules on their behalf should reflect on how it feels to have the rug pulled out from under their own assumptions.” (paywalled link)
Prorogation might turn out to be the ‘nuclear option’ to get us to Leave on Halloween, especially as the latest shenanigans of the Remain MPs to prevent our leaving at all costs, even at the cost of making prorogation ‘illegal’, clearly shows the damage they are willing to inflict on our unwritten constitution, our democratic customs and traditions, our democracy.
It is extraordinary that they are so fixated on their Westminster Bubble dreams of Remain that they disregard Nigel Farage and TBP. They seem to believe that, come a GE – Labour’s fondest wish – TBP will have gone away. Just as the HoC shenanigans illustrate that it’s no longer about party politics but about Leave or Remain, so it will be out here in the country: the Leave voters of all Parties will go to TBP.
Parliament and LibLabCon are in the Last Chance Saloon – totally oblivious. I think that, should they scupper Brexit, LibLabCon will be in for a very rude awakening indeed come the GE – because we 17.4 million Leave voters have not gone away and we know who speaks for us.
KBO!
Paranoid twaddle. I despair.
What Parliament has done, as I see it, is that it has engineered a coup d’etat against the will of the people expressed in the referendum. Parliament is in the act of struggling to complete that coup and, in these circumstances, I find it difficult to see why prorogation of Parliament should not be used to frustrate that coup.
Another good article!
We must not forget that:-
• All but one (a long shot) contender in this farcical leadership election voted for the WA on the third go.
• The EU will go into damage limitation if they have to. The alternative is apocalypse for the Euro and a huge boost for democracy, oops sorry populism.
• The polls mean very little if people do not vote and apathy strikes. Examples in Newport and Peterborough.
• The Conservatives will protect their precious party regardless of the cost.
• Labour has three things going for it, the postal voting system and tribalism and peer pressure.
• Labour has one hundred and two things going against them, anti-Semitism, internal power struggles, fiscal failure, fanaticism, lack of leadership charisma, social neglect, EU policy open door policy, global policy, conceit, deceit, arrogance, condescension, delusion, equality of outcome, failure to protect jobs, immigration, oh did I already say that? Lack of business sense, Dianne Abbott, Hamas. OK, I give up, let’s say fifty two things against them.
• Many of the MPs are wealthy, or have contempt for the electorate (unless they want their vote), or have things to hide, or have other vested interests, or have political ambitions beyond patriotism, or are ridden with socially destructive ideologies or any permutation. Do they really care if the House is brought down?
• Proroguing Parliament can be seen as morally wrong. Yes, I know, but two wrongs don’t make a right! There are other ways to skin the cat.
• There are about ten weeks of Parliament left before Halloween.
All said and done things are getting quite hysterical, and desperate.
The school of thought that is bringing and action against the ‘government’ which implies we left the e.u on March 29th has some very influential backers , the findings will be very interesting, that’s if it gets any mention on our ageist BBC. Either way it seems to many that the game is up for the conservative party if they don’t complete leave by October 31st.
I wonder if this does not occur what the remainers and the e.u think will occur, it seems unlikely to me that the great mass of the public behind leaving and now also backing TBP are likely to just pack up and go away. We could indeed be in foe some interesting times!
At risk of sounding ( Or being ) crazy.
I have been thinking for years now about the future after Brexit. And hitched myself to UKIP. in the hope that they might show originality ( Like Atlee if you want ).How wrong could I have been.? Farage was like a comet trailing clouds of rubbish.( Voting systems again )
So, where are we.
Batten has achieved a herculean accountants job of filliing the coffers, We all now get e’mails telling us who the new aristogravy is, We now have a sweet little Leaflet/manifesto ( Good idea that ). and an air of optimism for the brexit party, a large part of which must be credited to Batten and UKIP… So, workmanlike job so far Batten.
There is still a Brittain to be mended and guided. Projects/protests/aims etc ? Wecare a political party ( WE are told ) So we have to think .
NOW ! What must we come out of europe with ?
Just Britain ?
A Trade deal ? Let’s not be daft.! .via Politics? With our Civil Servants. Ha !.
Shared security ? Dafter still ?
United nation of Europe? Another commonwealth ?
EU without politics ? Trade and Mutual Aid ?
A purely political declaration?
If any of these is an aim, what mini steps do we need to take. For Britain ? I am sure that this is exactly what All the supermeetings being held around the world are exactly that.but aimed differently. Maybe we should have a different aim.
I know I sound like a fantasist, If you don’t go through this ,who knows what you may come up with. And in the 1950’s working on the WORLDs first Electronic computer, We did just these things.( Bragging rights )
A really good argument to stay with UKIP! 🙂 Watch this space!
This is a very important video and you should all watch it. It appears that the Magna Carta and thus Common Law, is still the law of the land and cannot be altered or repealed by politicians as it predates the formation of Parliament by about eighty years. Only we the people can repeal Magna Carta and we’ve never been asked, the European Union certainly has no right to do this either.
This is particularly important in the light of the Brexit fiasco, when you consider that our politicians have been and still are, giving away our rights that they never have had the authority, right or power to do. We are perfectly within our rights to march up to Westminster and remove the scum within, we just need to act upon these rights.
Watch the video, it’s only ten minutes long. This information has far reaching implications.
“The answer was here all along…”
https://youtu.be/2Q2P3HAmkqw
Sky published this ranking today for Tory Leadership race:
Boris Johnson – 74
Jeremy Hunt – 32
Michael Gove – 30
Dominic Raab – 22
Sajid Javid – 19
Matt Hancock – 16
Mark Harper – 8
Rory Stewart – 7
Esther McVey – 6
Andrea Leadsom – 5
219 of 313 Conservatives MPs declared their support. If you take away 10 in the race (unless they support themselves) 86 still undecided.
This as well may be an attempt to increase or decrease Johnson’s advantage. There was also a poll suggesting that only Boris will be the only possible future winner in GE, all other would lost it.
Here is a very interesting ‘take’ on today’s Parliamentary shenanigans – taking place after PMQs.
The comments are also recommended reading.
I was very impressed by Rory Stewart. His pitch to become leader was in a completely different class to any of the others so far and he batted the questions with ease. I could almost forget that he is an arch Remainer.
That’s a shame, as a candidate of his calibre, with impeccable qualifications and a big dollop of charisma and charm, should be destined for high office.
We really DO have to listen to his message. One way or the other a decision has to be hammered out, in Parliament, about Brexit. That’s for sure. But what about after ? Stewart’s vision of a post Brexit Britain was impressive, as was his grasp of fiscal reality which was in stark contrast to the £80 billion spending fantasies of the other candidates’ with absurd promises being made over government spending and taxation should they get the big prize.
For sure Stewart can’t win. It will likely be Boris Johnson, who has a proven record of winning and will attract the ‘safety vote’ of the hundreds of Tory MPs in danger of losing their seats should they face an angry electorate in an election this Autumn; however the sharp reminder is that after October 31st, should we actually leave the EU, the job of bringing the country back together is an extremely challenging task and one that can only be achieved by consensus with sensible politicians acting in a responsible manner. Jaw-jaw rather than war-war.
Boris might be a good wartime choice but , as Stewart alluded to, it took the brains and collaborative stance of Attlee to bring the country back together after the deprivations and damage of WWII and it will take more than populism and bluster to do a similar job in post Brexit Britain.
History teaches us that a war-weary electorate gets bored with slogans and dog-whistling when things get really serious. It also teaches us that people can quickly change sides when there are existential threats to stability and the general standard of living.
Its not just the Tories who must learn this, all parties will face, eventually, the court of common-sense.
My memory of Atlee , although only at university at the time, Was that he threw massive carrots at the British Donkey at a dangerous time for the economy both nationally and Internationally. Basically he was as close to being another Corbyn as was possible in those days. But he had the support of several of Churchills super efficient war cabinet, and in those days Labour was respectable. And I think the country was fed up with being told what to do and die for. ( We all understood necessity, but needed better.) [ and the Civil Service wanted something to do now the war was over, and If rationing was being forced out of theitr hands , they needed something to use )
I thought the big sell of Attlee was ‘look what big government has achieved in wartime so just think what it can achieve in peacetime’.
For those who believe in socialism then he must be some kind of hero – big government, welfare state and nationalised industries.
Buggered this country up big time.
What Atlee did was exactly populism. The population was thrown a huge ( Deserved for all sorts of reasons including political )) carrot, we could not afford. But mostly wanted. ( There are always remainers of course, even then )
KB You and Rory Stewart ‘reach out’ to Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve and other uber Remainers if you wish. The rest of us will seek to put these people out to grass at the next election as the remedy to heal divisions.
Jake
I can’t be arsed to explain the subtleties of my argument to people without the intellectual horsepower to grasp the real message.
This is why UKIP is doomed.
Fare thee well UKIP ! My membership is up in 2 weeks !
May the real grassroots find another cause to support and may all the good activists have hope that there are other alternatives.
As for the UKIP candidates hoping to be leader, there is only one that I would support.
I will not name him or her as I fear that my notoriety might not be useful to their cause, but good luck anyway.
You know who you are.
As for this site, I will continue to read but no longer contribute, as my opinion is not taken seriously.
To Viv / Debbie, – dedicated , honourable patriots – and to brilliant writers like Helen Windsor / Stephen Place and others —-and
also to my excellent sparring partners like Ogga and Flyer…. who have the balls to argue….
I wish you all the very best.
Kevin
Amazing! Sir Keir Starmer says: “MPs cannot be bystanders while the next Tory prime minister tries to crash the UK out of the European Union without a deal and without the consent of the British people.” He obviously doesn’t believe the polls that say the British people want to leave the EU, as evidenced by the 2016 referendum.
Labour wants a General Election because they think they can win it, that’s obvious, but the Conservatives will have to be forced into it through a vote of no confidence because turkeys don’t vote for Christmas – they know what will happen to all their remain MPs at a GE.
Interesting times!