50 days to Brexit and counting! It’s one more day closer to Brexit Day – but don’t yet put the non-EU-champagne on ice! It’s another day full of uncertainties and sleights-of-hands. Mr Tusk’s “Hell” comment has been all over the MSM, but the real ‘hammer’ (sorry, the language used in the MSM is getting to me) came late last night and early this morning. It’s that Ms May is “planning to delay” the debate in the HoC planned for St Valentine’s Day next week – until the end of the month. This piece of news yet again provides the keen observer with an object lesson on the matter of spin and on what the papers deem to be really important.
The main point on which everybody is agreed is that Ms May is going to Brussels today, to do battle about the Backstop with M Juncker and “Hell” Tusk. So far, so simple. But wait – The Times (paywalled) warns:
“Downing Street believes that the prime minister will receive little sympathy from Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the commission, as they meet for the first time since her Brexit plan was defeated in the Commons. […] While Brussels may allow a change to the withdrawal agreement, in the form of a legally binding letter making clear that the backstop insurance policy is temporary, this will not emerge until much closer to the March 29 Brexit deadline […]. (my bold)
Several papers report, more or less veiled, that Ms May hopes that Brussels will ‘help’ her to defeat the Brexiteers who set up the Malthouse Compromise. The DM writes that this delay is proposed so that the EU will give way on the Backstop. The Express reports that this delay is planned because Ms May will not be able to finalise her WA/Backstop negotiations with the EU. The Sun has this to say:
“But ministers close to No10 told The Sun that she secretly wants the EU’s help to abandon the new plan, dubbed the Malthouse Compromise. […] One Leave-backing minister said: “The PM needs Brussels to kill off Malthouse quickly. She can’t do it herself, she knows the EU has to do it for her or the ERG will never forgive her. But until that happens, she won’t be able to do the new deal that the members states want to do too now.” (my bold).
What a clever piece of skulduggery, accompanied by smoke-and-mirrors!
The papers all refer to this article in the DT (paywalled), so I’ll also quote from the original because it mentions the crux of the matter. The question of the Malthouse compromise is secondary:
“Theresa May is preparing to delay a second vote on her deal until the end of February, a month before Britain is scheduled to leave the EU, in a move which ministers believe means an extension of Article 50 is now inevitable. Julian Smith, the chief whip, is understood to have signalled in Cabinet on Tuesday that the vote will not be held next week, as previously expected, because the Prime Minister will not have renegotiated her deal in time. The vote is now being planned for the week starting February 25, prompting a Cabinet split amid concerns from Remainers who fear it will increase the risk of no deal.” (my bold)
If you were hoping that Ms May and her government are cunningly running down the clock so we can leave in 50 days with no deal, and up yours, EU – think again. Here’s another pointer to what that ‘cunning plan’ really is about (same source):
“One minister told The Telegraph they have stopped personally endorsing the Prime Minister’s claim that the UK will leave the EU on March 29 because it “makes us look ridiculous”. They have instead taken to saying it is “Government policy” that the UK will leave the EU on March 29 because they believe Article 50 will have to be extended.” (my bold)
The HoC will still vote on amendments next week, one being a ‘new and improved’ Cooper Bill, aimed to extend Article 50, which Ministers, according to the DT, think will again be defeated. However, the chief whip, Mr Julian Smith, warned: “that John Bercow, the Speaker,could attempt to undermine the Government’s plans and force it to hold the vote sooner.” (same source) – so there might be hope yet for a debate.
The first conclusion is that everybody – EU, Government, some Big Business, Parliament – is still howling about the end of the world should there be “No Deal” while on the other they are all preparing for it, even the EU (see yesterday’s column).
The second conclusion is that the much-vaunted Malthouse Compromise has now been revealed as a sop to Tory MPs, utilised by Ms May to demonstrate that ‘she has listened’ to MPs but the bad EU won’t let her implement it.
This leads to the final, inevitable conclusion: it’s yet another show of smoke-and-mirrors, prepared by Remain May and her willing helpers here and in the EU to make one thing inevitable: an extension to Article 50 with all that implies.
That is the goal for which she is willing to make herself look weak and stupid in the face of “Hell” Tusk, Juncker, and the EU, on the international stage. And that’s why our MPs are taking Brexit so seriously that, according to The Sun, “they ‘sloped off at 3.27pm – more than four hours earlier than usual for a Wednesday.” despite the huge backlog of Brexit-related legislation.
And our weak and feeble MPs – Tories, Labour, regardless – still think that tinkering at the margins will get us the Brexit we voted for!
‘One ring to bring them all and in the darkness bind them’ seems appropriate here …
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There’s an excellent article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the DT today. As it’s behind a paywall I have written a summary in a separate article here.
I keep mentioning this
29 th March Brexit day… Friday
30 March Saturday
31 March Sunday
1 April All Fools Day
Civil Service Idea of funny.
A comment copied fro the Telegraph, I’m posting it because somehow, i can just sense that this is the truth.
“I reckon Mrs Mays behaviour has revealed her “secret plan”.On 14th Feb May is rumoured to be submitting to Parliament virtually the same withdrawal agreement that was voted down before.
Apparently she is confident it will be approved this time! Consequently she is either COMPLETELY nuts OR the secret EU/May plan MUST be for the EU to give mega-bungs to 130 of the MPs that voted against it before. That (plus the other 200 quislings that previously voted for it) will ensure a majority vote in Parliament.
Even with bungs at £30 million each the EU would still have over £35 BILLION left from the £39 billion of OUR money that May has already offered them.
The “withdrawal” agreement (for TOTAL subordination to the EU) already guarantees that all past, present or future “EU employees” are exempt from tax and criminal prosecution, enables the EU to extort anything they want from us in future and locks us in until the year 2099 + a further 8 years!!!”
The Telegraph article can be read in full as one of two (I think) premium articles non-subscribers can read either every week or every month. It’s bait to attract subscribers. I have just read the whole thing, though Vivian Evans has done such a good job here that you can take his article as being just as good (better with the comments).
I agree Badger, I went out and bought a copy of the paper, I shall cut out the AEP piece as a constant reference. I also wonder why this receives so little attention hidden as it is in the business section, perhaps that`s just the reason it is sited there, it is very un-PC the MSM doesn`t like the truth and it particularly doesn`t want to be associated with inconvenient truth (at odds with its pals in the MSM), Possibly the DT has two brands of readership who don`t venture into foreign territory – eyes wide closed sort of thing.
I seem to remember we have been here before with AEP – he did a big set of items on “Clinton women” in Arkansas prior to the main event – that didn`t seem to make much headway apart from the tittylation aspect.
She has written it, signed it, and given it . Every word from now on is a loaded gun. or put it another way . Another piece of Yorkdhire given away.With a title ( new Duke Of Yorkshire. or Assembly Mayor, of North East Region No. 4, of Offshore Coastal provinces, EU )
I’ve recently read comments on these pages to the effect that our illustrious PM is as thick as treacle and that the electorate will be so upset that the local elections on May will be a walk in the park for UKIP.
Now I’ve no way of knowing how sharp May is (or isn’t, take your pick) however I’m certain that whoever is advising her is as quick as a black mamba and no less venomous. Regarding the local elections they are, I believe, the very point of the seemingly never-ending soap opera in the House of Commons that we’re all being subjected to.
The Cons need to do well in the locals to be sure of winning the next General Election. It’s in the shires that the’re strong and local councillors there are their oxygen.
Certainly, in my neck of the woods they’re running a very tight ship. Court orders banning dodgy young’uns from Grays town centre, security guards and plastics on Saturdays. In short doing lots of ‘conservative’ stuff to keep their sheep happy in the leadup.
Add to that Nigel has noisily turned and is now apparently starting a vote-splitting party. (Which may leave us less numerous but stronger as those with soft heads leave.)
But the Cons can only con some of the people some of the time.
So no, it won’t be a walk in the park. We do have a fight on our hands.
But it’s a fight a lot of us CAN AND WILL WIN!
Time for yellow vests
Thanks for an excellent exposition Viv
I hope everyone who reads it will then turn to the commentary you have given under the lead (here) of Ambrose Evans- Pritchard exposure of the TRAPS contained in the withdrawal document and even in any renegotiated backstop arrangement.
I print below a bit of what I wrote in comments to your column yesterday, it seems Mr.A E-P has answered.
“I get the general tenor of the backstop being toxic etc and requires a severe stromaching, but I thought the body of the Withdrawal Agreement itself was considered to be full of at least 40 NoNoes, some of which in themselves meant we left in Name only, where is the programme for administering a load of bleach over those.
And what is being done about that little matter that that nice Bill Cash raised (never understood what it was – but it certainly caught St Theresa out in a bit of grand larceny – if that`s what you call a bit of devious deception)”
Please everybody I believe it is vital you read it!!
The very fact that we are talking about the filthy thing is evidence that it’s working in her direction. I’m off to try and find a yellow vest.She has to be left with nowhere to go.
The idea that we need time to leave is only believable to those who cannot think.. The Civil Service, to whom this is mecca, will clog up everything they think can be attributed to Brexit without being blamed. But that’s where the problem is .All half a million of them sucking out the lifeblood. ( Silly Taxes ) ( most of them should be out doing a proper job. or obstructing for their country )