Written by Peter Kirby
I have been studying climate change for twelve years by reading books on the subject (I have over thirty) and researching scientific papers available on the internet. There is much to say, but put as briefly as possible I have come to the following conclusions.
Climate change is a natural function principally caused by the sun and other factors which are terrestrial, galactic, and cosmic. These influences are very powerful. The climate has changed in the past, is changing now, and will change in the future. Those seeking to stop the changes are trying to stop the unstoppable. The policies which have been introduced to achieve this are very harmful to the economy, and the scary forecasts based on computer models are exaggerated. Models are not evidence and too much real evidence has been ignored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which consists of politicians who write the Executive Summary for Decision Makers. Many of the panel’s own scientists have publicly disagreed with the summaries. They have been sacked or ignored.
I believe it is necessary for the Climate Change Act 2008 to be repealed so that an enquiry can establish what is likely to happen by examination of real historical evidence, and then embark on a programme of mitigation where the effects are likely to cause economic disbenefits, adaptation where necessary, and development when the effects are beneficial.
Much is made of the claim that ‘the science is settled’. This ignores the powerful forces referred to above. Science is never settled, it merely establishes hypotheses which stand until a future scientist proves them wrong. Science must be established on the principle of the scientific method using real evidence, not models, from which to draw conclusions taking account of the forces mentioned above. No laboratory experiment has ever proved that CO2 dangerously warms the atmosphere.
Those politicians and scientists who promote the hypothesis that carbon dioxide and methane emitted into the atmosphere are causing catastrophic global warming ignore the recent history of global temperature. From 1890 to 1916 the global temperature was falling slightly; from 1916 to 1940 it was rising slightly; from 1940 to 1975 it was falling slightly; from 1975 to1998 it was rising slightly; and from 1998 to 2020 there has been no statistically significant change.
Also two fundamental facts have been ignored. The first is that the capacity of those gases (carbon dioxide, and methane) to warm the atmosphere is logarithmically reducing. This means that as more and more CO2 gets into the atmosphere the extra gas has less and less effect and we are already at a point where additional CO2 will have only a very small effect. The second fact is that today CO2 forms only four molecules in every 10,000 molecules of atmosphere. In the last 70 years it has increased by one molecule in 10,000. Yes, that is indisputable. I ask the question:- can a change in the nature of one molecule in 10,000 cause catastrophic global warming? I am forced to the answer NO! CO2 can warm the atmosphere a little, but not much. In the case of methane there is less than two molecules in 1,000,000 molecules of atmosphere. This is also indisputable. The principal gas which warms the atmosphere is water vapour the volume of which in the atmosphere is beyond the control of mankind.
To reduce the cause of modern climate change to only one variable, CO2 which forms 00.04% of the atmosphere, and to a small proportion of that variable (i.e. manmade CO2), is not science. It is pseudo science. The real empirical evidence shown by the present lack of sunspots is leading many scientists to the view that a cold spell is imminent.
In view of the worldwide and UK misallocation of resources I believe that a rational consideration of the factors involved is long overdue, natural climate change must be taken account of, the true purpose of the IPCC CO2 reduction campaign must be publicised, and the Climate Change Act 2008 and subsequent legislation must be repealed.
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