While Brexit is hogging the headlines, there’s one article by Roger Bootle in today’s Daily Telegraph which points to the remarkable similarities between the then EURO-enthusiasts and the Remainers of today. Not only are the arguments of 20 years ago stupendously similar – the people who make these arguments are nearly exactly the same.
I recommend this article to the readers of INDEPENDENCE Daily!
Respectfully, Jack Russell
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The euro is doomed. It must therefore be broken up. All else is self-deception. See this report in the DT.
Typical of many prophecies of doom for the Euro around at the moment. I know a top asset manager in the City whose whole life is currencies and he also predicts that the Euro has little time left – three years maximum. As Evans-Pritchard says , it has no defences left and will break up in the next global recession which is due imminently.
This is not just wishful thinking. As Evans Pritchard says the only thing which could save it is if there was a fiscal union – i.e. full economic integration but the Germans in particular would NEVER allow that as it would mean them having to pay the bills for the shortcomings of the rest of the EU for ever. They rather see the EU as a German Fourth Reich with all the other countries as impoverished satrapies of Berlin.
So the Euro is doomed . The big question is , will the EU implode in the wake of its demise?
Respectfully, Roger Arthur
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THE EURO – MANY UNHAPPY RETURNS?
The single European currency always was a German idea. Time after time, their hard-earned competitive edge would be eroded by the devaluation of their competitors’ and customers’ currencies, or the forced revaluation of their own. In the long term, there could be only one solution: the elimination of those currencies, to be replaced with one currency under, of course, German control.
The ECU, the proto-single currency, was conceived between Valéry Giscard d’Estaing and Helmut Schmidt, beneath the benign gaze of Lord Jenkins, in 1978. It was born the next year. But as the years went by, and it became more and more likely that this improbable dream would soon be a reality, the German people became as restive as post-war Germans ever do. Unlike their politico-business masters, they saw the Deutschmark as a symbol of their peacetime success, bought through their diligence and application.
Thus it was that a myth was spun, that the French had insisted on Germany accepting the single currency, in return for French acquiescence to the re-unification of Germany. There was no power on Earth that could stand in the way of that event, but it kept the German masses quiet and flattered the French, which they always appreciate.
The basic design flaw in the single currency, that a currency union would be precarious without a fiscal union, was noted by many. But it was not a flaw – it was a feature. That fiscal union, when it came, would accelerate political union, always the long-term objective of the exercise.
Twenty years on from the birth of the euro, there are many who predict its imminent demise. Let us note that Germany has a credit balance in the order of a trillion euros in Target2, the trans-eurozone clearing system. Let us further note that this asset is backed by the liabilities of Italy, Greece and the like. If the euro split up, these latter nations would hastily re-denominate those liabilities into their own new-born currencies, which would promptly plummet, reducing Germany’s hard-earned cash to little more than ashes.
Bad news all round for Germany, then: loss of cash, loss of competitive advantage. This being the case, they might think the unthinkable and accept fiscal union, which means, in effect, Germany subsidising its impecunious partners until Kingdom come. Against all its protestations, Germany has swallowed QE (money-printing in the digital age) and bail-outs. Do not bet the business on their not swallowing this.
I’ll send the euro a card on its twenty-first.
Respectfully, Joseph B. Fox