One way or another – there’ll be a new occupant of No 10 …
Here is the full text of the memorandum the Tory Party ‘rebels’ sent around over the Jubilee Bank Holiday weekend. It’s this memorandum which led to the 1922 Committee ‘confidence vote’ yesterday evening. The DT has obtained the memo and published it, in a paywalled article here, adorned with little comments by the author, Ms Tominey.
I believe we can make up our own minds about what this memo means – and I believe we all ought to have access to it. So, as promised, here it is, in full, omitting the links which don’t work in the copy, unreacted and formatted as in the original:
“PARTY LEADERSHIP”
- Boris Johnson is no longer an electoral asset and, if left in post, will lead the Party to a substantial defeat in 2024. He will lose Red Wall seats (with majorities under 10,000) to Labour, and Blue Wall seats (majorities up to 20,000) to the Liberal Democrats. At least 160 MPs are at risk (all majorities under 10k, and LD-facing majorities under 20k). Furthermore, tactical voting, so devastating in 1997, is returning and could turn a defeat into a landslide.
- Partygate, and the Prime Minister’s denials of it in the House of Commons, represent a major breach of trust with the British population, including 2019 Conservatives, many of whom have abandoned the party already. Boris Johnson cannot win their trust back, and they will discount anything a Government led by him promises.
- Partygate is not going away. Allegations of a birthday party – hitherto uninvestigated – in the flat on June 19, 2020 have not been denied by Downing Street. And the “Abba party” of November 13, 2020 was not fully investigated by Sue Gray. The Privileges Committee will want to examine both events, and may demand that Boris Johnson, Carrie Johnson, Sue Gray and No 10 staff give evidence to them.
- The entire purpose of the Government now appears to be the sustenance of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister. MPs are having to defend the indefensible, not for the sake of the party, but for one man. He is the only Minister given negative ratings by activists in the ConHome ratings, meaning he is dragging everyone else down.
Electoral Considerations:
- Our last lead in the polls was on 6th December, a week after the initial Partygate stories broke. We are now an average of 8% down. We won the last election by 11.8% (GB) so this represents a 10% swing against us.
- 27% of current Conservative voters think the PM should resign, indicating there is potential for a further fall in our polling position. 51% of current Conservative voters think the PM knowingly lied about breaking lockdown rules.
- The booing of Boris Johnson at the Jubilee Thanksgiving service tells us nothing that data does not. There is no social group that trusts him, with even 55% of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy, against only 25% saying he is trustworthy.
- The damage done to trust in Boris Johnson is such that popular policies are falling flat with the public (e.g. cost-of-living measures). A pollster has dubbed him the “Conservative Corbyn” because of this.
- The recent YouGov MRP poll showed us losing 85 of 88 Labour-facing seats at the next election. Bookmakers expect us to lose the Red Wall seat of Wakefield (maj 3,358) comfortably.
- Facing the Lib Dems, we have already lost Chesham & Amersham (maj 16,223) on a 25.2% swing and North Shropshire (maj 22,949) on a 34.2% swing. North Shropshire was the seventh-worst by-election swing since the war – only Christchurch was bigger in the 1992-97 Parliament (link). Bookmakers also expect Tiverton & Honiton (maj 24,239) to follow. There are very few votes on our right to squeeze (unlike e.g. 2013, where UKIP polled into the 20s at times). The polls in 2010-15 were also shown to be wrong following an inquiry after the 2015 election.
Risk of an early General Election:
- Should Boris Johnson win a vote of no confidence, but only narrowly, his authority within the Commons and the Parliamentary Party would be destroyed. Most Prime Ministers would resign; however it has been suggested that he would consider calling an early General Election (despite the obvious electoral risk) as the only way to restore his personal mandate. This would put MPs in marginal seats at risk.
Privileges Committee:
- The Partygate story will continue to be played out over the summer, with reports suggesting the Privileges Committee may not report until October, overshadowing our conference and ensuring Ministers and MPs continue to face questions on this subject for months. The four Conservative MPs on the Committee – and the integrity of all of them is beyond question – have been placed in a very difficult position.
- The only way to end this misery, earn a hearing from the British public, and restore Conservative fortunes to a point where we can win the next General Election, is to remove Boris Johnson as Prime Minister.”
~~~ *** ~~~
This memo is based on facts not even the most committed acolyte of the ‘Big Dog’ can deny. It remains to be seen if Johnson clings on, to the detriment of his government and his party, or if he’s capable of doing the decent thing and just go, the sooner the better.
Evil is as evil does.
BoJo winning the party vote is perhaps not surprising. However I mentioned previously his breaking of the Ministerial Code, the transgression of which required his removal from the position of PM; no other option. This morning I see that a new version of that code has been issued allowing him to wriggle out of his misdemeanours…
This is wholly unacceptable. Unfortunately my MP is a Tory, albeit with the lowest majority in the country so unlikely to raise the issue. Maybe I’ll have to contact Starmer in support…
I am not a Johnson fan, never voted for him, and in fact I have not voted since 23rd June 2016. The Benn Act during May’s dreadful tenure ensured the UK had no leverage in negotiations. Whether Johnson could have achieved more without it we shall never know. The unsatisfactory Brexit is the creation of Starmer, Hunt et al along with the rest of Parliament as much as Johnson.
His handing of the pandemic was affected by his spell in ICU. It left him vulnerable to the doom mongering of SAGE. His illiberal lockdowns, green loonery, his pandering to Carrie’s middle class virtue fashions, his failure to secure our borders, his big state taxation levels, his wonky shopping trolley approach to policy, and failure to diverge from EU regulations, are all reasons to see him brought down.
Except, these are not the reasons for the media created witch-hunt so enthusiatically taken up by the closet Lib Dems that infect the parlimentary Tory party. When the nexus that is Remain get their scalp, as now looks likely, they will be energised. As with the French election, we are faced with a choice between plague and cholera. I loathe the anti-democratic, snob Remainers more than I loathe Johnson (though it is close) and as a non-voting observer I watch all this with mixed feelings. It is said we get the goverment we deserve except we did not deserve Johnson and I’m pretty sure we will not deserve what comes next.
Clearly, those MPs supporting Johnson didn’t really know what they were voting for and we need another vote to make sure its not racist or bias against transgender folk and whatabout our EU partners who have no voice and all those unvacinated children starving with no future who we must never forget are the real victims of this Russian plot to subvert our democracy etc etc
MuN- dont forget misogynist, Islamophobia, Nazi and too stupid to vote.
The elephant in the room is who will replace him. Looks like the public will be stitched up again going from the frying pan into the fryer. There is no credible candidate.
A factual, no holds barred summation. It is the sort of document I have been writing and influencing all my life.
No wouldavw, couldave, mightave – peer reviews tear up such wishy washy papers and tear up their writers.
Altogether very refreshing. I wonder who wrote it?
The only surprise to me is the PM won the vote.