Allister Heath has written a devastating piece for the Daily Telegraph in which he depicts the future for London thanks to CV-19, the Lockdown and the mask edict by the government. Title and subtitle already describe the looming disaster:
“The death of the commuter is an extinction-level event for London – The capital is bankrupt, its business model destroyed by shifts in behaviour that may never now be reversed” (paywalled link)
It is about the economy and how the Lockdown and the Semi-Lockdown have and will affect the ‘business model London’:
“This was the week when the penny finally dropped. The prevalence of coronavirus may have collapsed across Britain, but we are not returning to our old, carefree ways for the foreseeable future. This will have immense, permanent consequences for our economy and way of life. Its most devastating impact will be on central London, which is facing an extinction-level event.
The Government’s mask-wearing edict shows that it remains terrified of a second wave, and doesn’t understand why, whether or when the virus will return. Its only solution remains a vaccine or a cure: prospects are promising, but it will be months at best before mass inoculations can begin.” (paywalled link)
He remarks that the attitude of governments across the globe is the same: they will do everything to avoid a 2nd wave, even unto making mask-wearing mandatory, while hoping for a vaccine and then warns:
“This über risk-averse approach will also apply to any major new virus: social distancing, masks and home-working are bound to be reintroduced each time a new infectious disease appears anywhere in the world, and even during significant flu seasons.
The implications will, in many cases, be catastrophic. The old order could have survived a once-in-a-generation government-subsidised hibernation, an extended Christmas holiday; it cannot cope with indefinite social distancing, and the threat of similar shocks every three to four years. We now face an excruciating period of destruction as malinvestment is purged, jobs are cut, debt is written off and resources are reallocated.” (paywalled link)
Describing the economic outlook which is as grim as are the various government measures proposed in expectation of that ‘2nd wave’, being fearful at the same time of some new pandemic, he takes a close, hard look at Khan’s London:
“The private sector is already adjusting: many will delay the return to offices planned for September, regardless of official advice. Why move workers back if this will need to be reversed in November or December in the event of a second wave? The longer workers stay at home, the less likely they are ever to come back fully. I don’t know a single employer who believes they will revert to previous levels of office working. The interaction of the virus and technology will create a new class divide in Britain: those who can work from home, and those who can’t.
Until now, the most successful geographies were those that attracted members of the former category. Yet this is now a recipe for disaster: London’s economic and political business model has suddenly been rendered unsustainable, with office districts turned into ghost towns. The Greater London Authority, and Transport for London, its main asset, are, in effect, bankrupt, with nearly empty Tubes meaning fare revenues are in freefall, reliant on handouts from the Government. Devolution is over, de facto if not de jure. Sadiq Khan has accelerated his own demise by hyping the risks of public transport, but his likely reelection next year will mean nothing. His power – other than to infuriate his Tory minority in London by tolerating graffiti, hiking the congestion fee, shutting roads and cutting the police – has evaporated.” (paywalled link)
Mr Heath next lists more particulars pertaining to London:
“The private sector, for its part, is facing gargantuan structural losses: the economics of offices and retail is predicated on mass commuting and tourism. The former won’t fully come back; the latter will take a year or two. The arts, luxury, fashion, transport, hospitality, restaurant and many service industries face decimation. It’s a full-on biotic crisis: London’s economic ecosystem is suffering an immense decline in diversity. Lower-paid jobs, in particular, are being culled; the population could fall, with tens of thousands returning to Europe.” (paywalled link)
After a brief look back on past economic events since the 1980s, mostly benefiting London, Mr Heath refers to an analysis which supports his arguments for that economic ‘extinction level event’ coming to London:
“A few years ago, Bridget Rosewell, an economist, revealed how the capital lost 1 million, mostly manufacturing, jobs on radial routes in the suburbs over three decades and created 1 million, mostly high-value-added services jobs in central London. Suburban factories and offices became homes. Economic activity became hyper-concentrated in the centre. This model was seen globally as a triumph of renewal. There were risks: it was contingent on staving off urban decay, avoiding terrorism, making sure taxes were not hiked, ongoing vast subsidies to public transport, continued globalisation, containing property prices – and yes, avoiding pandemics.
As to the downsides: the rest of the UK failed to pull off its own transition, becoming addicted to transfers from London; and the capital’s culture shifted corrosively, becoming the epicentre of Remainia, Corbynite attitudes and intolerant illiberalism.” (paywalled link)
It is indeed a ‘moment of extreme danger’ for the economy – but in conclusion Mr Heath offers a solution, describing measures government ought to take or at least contemplate:
“This is a moment of extreme danger for the economy, which faces a productivity shock if agglomeration effects cannot be replicated when workers scatter widely, but there is a way out. Boris Johnson must not seek to prop up bankrupt central London investors. Instead, he must allow the market to work, and encourage Tory heartlands – suburbia, exurbia and smaller cities – to hoover up London refugees, workers who no longer need to commute daily. New, more spacious, houses will need to be built, not just tiny city-centre flats, as well as a new generation of suburban or out-of-town flexible offices. We will need electric cars, not HS2.
It once seemed that levelling up was about making the rest of the country more like London – now, it is the opposite. Britain’s only hope is a suburban renaissance.” (paywalled link)
I’m not sure I wholly agree with those ‘solutions’ offered by Mr Heath. It is all a bit Home Counties centred. We certainly don’t need HS2, but nor do we need ‘electric cars’. I also doubt those Home Counties will ‘hoover up workers’ – they won’t allow industries to pollute their nice new shire homes.
I do agree with his general analysis but would warn that an exodus of European workers – working in offices or in ‘Pret-a-Manger’ – is not desirable. We know who will fill the vacuum thus created. A Londonistan ruled by gangs having been taken over thanks to ‘white flight’, is a horror not to be wished for. The example of Detroit or a look at how Washington DC is divided between government and admin buildings and offices, surrounded by impoverished black communities, should be a warning.
All in all: a good and scary analysis – but the solutions leave much to be desired.
Its all ok folks. Soon you wont need planning to put two more floors on your worthless but over taxed London house
No crisis is so bad that the state cannot make it worse.
John Galt’s Speech (Condensed) Atlas Shrugged Ayn Rand 4 mins Unlike some my take on John Galt’s speech was not defence of corporatism and crony capitalism but defence of small government and entrepreneurial capitalism. There is a huge difference.
Surely London has been getting less and less fun since around 1990 – For some reason you can measure the loss of London cool with the spread of cameras and road humps – It seems that now you only have to go there every decade or so for the High Court and it is now quicker to walk just like 100 years ago – Now it is revealed that the overall death rate is lower than average it is obvious the Lockdown was pointless as is the, after the horse has bolted’ Nappy Face – But seeing the entire populace fearful and faceless is even more iconic than the eerie empty streets allowing our masters to gloat over their new powers surely here to stay – It is such a cock up that will go on getting worse and worse with economic and mental depression plus layers of new regulations with health passports and compulsory medical procedures and new taxes of course that you wish it was a conspiracy with some sort of real purpose as here – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQcvuftqXFY
The population falling is to be welcomed, especially if there is to be an influx of bright, new members from Hong Kong. There is only so much land mass in the UK.
We definitely do not need HS2.
Electric cars have their place, but are not the universal solution.
For far too long government seems to have been unable to see and understand beyond the M25. Major change for London could be a really good thing for he UK.
Yes. Bright new folk from Hong Kong who know about city life could be the saviour of London……there is hope for us after all….Although it must seem like a disaster for them today….Makes you wonder will China now attack Taiwan they have so messed up their hitherto stealthy takeover of the World they have not a lot of face left to lose….It seems their attacks on India, Australia etc are to destract from discontent at many levels with and in the CCP and the aged leaders in China and Russia and Turkey now established in position for life will likely do anything to stay in power, for them the alternatives are dire indeed, how far will they go to avoid those consequencies how far would anyone go?
I HAVE HEARD IT SAID that for every failure, an opportunity presents itself ! – Here in Northampton, we have been a London overspill area for some years now, but Local Government have lacked vision, and have had little help from National Government. – Our Town Centre is half dead, and new areas of the Town have just become a sprawl, with out of Centre Retail Parks !
Even so, I used to enjoy my visits to London, before English almost disappeared, but I would never wish to live there ! – It would be possible with National and Private investment, for London to undergo a change, back to our favoured Capital City, but almost certainly without much of ‘Office Land’ continuing to dominate the Capital !
I don’t agree with Allister Heath’s doom and gloom on London, but I do recognise it as being possible. – Given the right leadership and enough future targeted investment, London could be made better in a fairly short time. – Satisfactory Police numbers is certainly an urgent requirement ! – My view is that it would be wrong and inappropriate to write off London, but the future will need work !
There was an international conference in 2016 to plan for a pandemic but it’s conclusions were ignored. Now we know why.
We cannot guess what it’s likely to be like. But we can prepare. Quality, factual and rational education, skills training. health education, localism etc But above all….Simple.law + order.( and very quickly )
These are all things that have to be attended to now. …But of course won’t be. Unless local councils understand that they should be uniquely fitted for just this purpose.
Councils are too busy concentrating on equality and diversity and shutting off roads to accommodate scarce cyclists, petrified of the BLM and Extremist rebellion movements.
They’ll be too busy kicking us around, forcing us to be tested, stopping us going places with local lockdowns, checkiong our “immunity passports.” Doing anything to benefit us is will not be on the agenda.
Then of course there’s still the French to worry about. They’ll also be wanting to interfere. Aided by the Scots of course. They’re probably queueing up in Calais.
Impossible to believe government did not foresee economic catastrophe so it must be planned.
With JP Morgan and many other banks predicting a massive wave of bankruptcies and it’s likely that this will include some of the largest banks going under, the bank runs have already started in China: I’m not sure there are any real solutions. This is something that is going to consume the world, something that we are just going to have to try to survive, not everybody will.
I’ll be moving off grid myself and I’d advise anyone in a city to get out while you can, this sh*t has only just started. Viv is right about London, it is going to turn into a Third World hell hole, I’ve been to many like it in places like Central and South America, Africa etc. After visiting or staying in such places, I always find it a relief to get on a plane and fly home but that was when we had a home to fly to, there aren’t many places to run to anymore.
Don’t we have a lot to thank the LibLabCon for?
I’m sorry to be so gloomy but it’s just the way I see it and I have tried to warn you over the years, some saw this coming, others preferred to bury their heads in the sand.
I wish you all the best of luck!
2 bed ground floor flat for sale. Offers to…
JF
Of course there’s a solution Flyer. In fact several, but they all involve admission of stupidity etc and a sharp u turn,Virtually only pensioners will die of it. So lock em down ( Different days , or areas or whatever ). It’s like watching ants..The rest can work, play, educate etc. . Or facilities will have to admit that people can be different.
The whole thing is F ing ridiculous.
Just you try! I’d rather get the virus, then infect a few dozen Bame and die having done my bit for the return of Merry England
“a good and scary analysis – but the solutions leave much to be desired.”
Indeed; one has to wonder who Mr. Heath is working for.
Persimmon?
A better solution is for the Government to come out and admit the while thing was a massive over reaction and there is little chance of healthy people dying from it so bin the muzzles and get back to the old normal. The longer they leave this the harder it will be to row back and prevent this economic and social disaster.
Government allowed its ‘experts’ to talk about herd immunity. Someone with a vestige of political sense realised that a policy of letting lots of people die was not something they could sell. So they pretended to have a plan.They haven’t yet found a plan they can pretend is the way out.
Answer? Tell the truth.
JF
To be fair to them their original herd immunity policy did include strongly advised self isolation for the immuno-compromised and measures such as hand washing and reduced physical contact. It would have worked like it did in Sweden except both obviously “forgot” about care homes and the old fever hospital concept and messed it up anyway. However because they got frightened into a lockdown one country still has hope for its economy and one is heading for a bad place. The pointless placebo of masks in shops isn’t going to help change that.