“Miserable May continues… “ – oh yes, I thought: what a great headline! Unfortunately, it’s about the weather and not about our beloved PM. While the May weather will be miserable only for some (link, if you must), the PM’s Brexit plans mean misery for all of us.
We read yesterday that 10 Drowning Street is preparing for more misery by working on how best to get the PM’s dreadful WA through the intransigent HoC (see here). Her MPs meanwhile are out, facing us voters in a bid to achieve some respectable result in the EP elections which are taking place in 12 day’s time.
At the same time they’re manoeuvring as to who should replace her when she goes – if she goes. The latest is that Ms Amber Rudd is apparently now secretly supporting BoJo and that her demand to ‘male’ candidates not to parade their wives was meant as secret signal to go for a ‘dream combo’ called ‘Bamber’ …
This Tory Game of Thrones is getting tedious, especially when we’re presented with an insight, an interpretation of what the PM may or may not want to do:
“Theresa May will not set a resignation date because she says it would make passing her Brexit deal impossible, according to reports. Setting a definite date could see the Prime Minister’s Brexiteer critics hold out for her departure, rather than backing her deal for the UK to leave the EU.” (link)
We’ve said it so many times now: nothing matters to the PM except getting that BRINO thing through the HoC, preferably now, before the EP Elections – and never mind that, having lied so many times already, there’s no guarantee that she’d actually go once her spineless bunch of Remain MPs have given in and dragged that abomination over the finishing line.
Never mind that the EP elections will take place regardless, even if the PM achieves her dream goal of “delivering Brexit”, by making us into the vassal state of the EU. What a waste of £150million to pay for that ‘exercise’!
The PM will campaign as well, sort of, as The Times reports:
“Theresa May will make her only significant contribution to the Tories’ European parliamentary election campaign late next week as the party appeals to its most loyal supporters to avoid a catastrophic defeat. The prime minister is set to make a token effort this weekend — possibly taking part in telephone canvassing — but will not make a public appearance on the stump.” link, paywalled)
Of course not – that might be, ahem, unwise … More:
Instead Mrs May is planning a speech on the future of Europe towards the end of next week, although her allies said that the precise nature of the “event” had yet to be determined. Party chiefs are relying on telephone canvassing and taxpayer-funded mailshots in a cut-price campaign boycotted by large sections of its membership angry at her refusal to leave the EU on March 29 after her deal was rejected”. (link, paywalled)
I’m sorry (not!) that there’s only one word I can use to describe her attitude properly, and that is: pigheaded. See this:
“Mrs May is likely to use her campaign appearance to tell voters that the only way to be sure that Brexit is delivered is for MPs to pass the withdrawal agreement. The speech could coincide with the Commons introduction of the Brexit implementation legislation.” (link, paywalled)
Does she really think that we will vote for MEPs who will support her BRINO? Or does she think we’ll now finally tell our MPs to please support her? Really?
Of course, having seen the behaviour of the majority of the dwellers inside the HoC, a.k.a. MPs, I can understand that she must regard them as toddlers who throw tantrums at the drop of a hat. Reasoning with them, she seems to think, is useless, they must be forced to obey because Mummy knows best. I shudder to imagine what she thinks of us Leavers out here …
Meanwhile there was this EU summit in Romania on Thursday which did not touch upon Brexit – on purpose. It was meant to be about the EU post-Brexit because they all thought we’d have been out by now. Interestingly enough, none of our MSM sent their EU correspondents. A quick glance at the ‘news’ listed in that browser starting with ‘g’ brings up one report only, in the DM (link), which is taken from a press agency.
I can’t blame them – who’d want to listen to a touchy-feely assertion that ‘they will all stick together through thick and thin’, to be ‘stronger united’! You’ll notice that this cry for ‘unity’ which we keep hearing from our establishment Parties when they want to convince us that we must Remain is now the mantra for the whole EU.
Interference in the running of elections in a foreign country is very much frowned upon by Brussels, but since some animals are more equal than others, the ‘support’ by Guy Verhofstadt at the LibDem campaign launch is perfectly ok, as are remarks by Donald Tusk, gleefully reported in RemainCentral, a.k.a The Times:
“Yesterday Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, obliquely helped Mrs May’s cause by suggesting that the odds that Brexit would be reversed in a second referendum were shortening with every month that passed. He believes that the tide is turning as the difficulty of implementing Brexit becomes apparent to the public.” (link, paywalled)
Yeah right – and we should be happy to Remain, yes?
Or perhaps not so much, given that Madame Merkel and M Macron are busy fighting over the election of the new president of the European commission. That’s the Juncker replacement:
“Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel are at loggerheads over who should succeed Jean-Claude Juncker as president of the European Commission in a row which threatens to precipitate a major constitutional crisis in the EU.The divisions between the EU’s two most influential member states will further complicate a looming inter-institutional turf war in Brussels over whether the new president should be chosen through the European elections or not.” (paywalled link)
These machinations wouldn’t have interested us at all, had we been Out. But we ain’t, so we need to understand who that Juncker replacement will be. Merkel wants her protege, Mr Weber – Macron doesn’t, and has got some of his ducks lined up already:
“Mr Macron hopes to have the same disruptive effect in the European elections that he wielded to propel him to the French presidency. He has created a new party, Renaissance, made up of prospective MEPs from his En Marche party. Mr Macron is expected to form a new political group with Europe’s liberals, who are currently led by Guy Verhofstadt, the parliament’s Brexit coordinator.” (paywalled link)
Do the LibDems know that they’re now Macron supporters by proxy?
While Macron’s calculations may not work out, the truly astonishing result of a fragmented EU Parliament may well be this:
“Momentum appears to be building behind the choice of compromise candidate Michel Barnier to succeed Mr Juncker. He has a pan-EU profile, thanks to his work as the EU’s Brexit negotiator, is French and is a veteran and influential member of the EPP. But that is far from certain. Mr Barnier has said he wants to be “useful” to the next commission but insists he is not on the campaign trail while delivering presidential speeches on the future of Europe. Some EU diplomats are suspicious that Mr Macron and Mrs Merkel will collude to ensure a French commission president and a German head of the European Central Bank.” (paywalled link)
Our future as vassal state in the new Franco-German EU is bright! You remember that last year, M&M signed a co-operation treaty which they prepared by themselves, over the head of Brussels: a sign of things to come?
Perhaps the realisation that we’ll be under Franco-German boots has crept upon the current DExEU minister Steve Barclay who is alleged to bring the No Deal back into play – read it here, it’s not paywalled:
“Brexit secretary Steven Barclay is set to ramp up no-deal Brexit planning in a move that is likely to trigger a “major totemic battle” among cabinet ministers. […] Mr Barclay will either present his paper at cabinet next Tuesday or a week later, according to Whitehall figures.”
Nah – I think Mr Barclay just wants to polish up his credentials as Eurosceptic, to look good to whoever will replace the PM – if she will be replaced, that is. Perhaps it’s just a ploy to increase the chances of the Tories in the EP elections … yes, I’m cynical.
When I look at today’s Brexit news I cannot help but diagnose a new illness which has befallen all EU politicians, our Remainers and the PM’s cabinet included. It’s called ‘whistling-in-the-dark-itis’, crying for ‘Unity’. There’s no cure, except Leave.
KBO!
Surely the question is: do you, or do you not want to restore democracy which has been trashed by our parliamentary caste? We may weĺl have to weed out the MP s before we can successfully leave under WTO.
Next question is not whether you like this or that person, but which party can do the job? For over two years I have been writing here that I did not think UKIP would get the mass popular support to do the job. Whatever I think of Farage, there is no doubt that TBP with nearly 100,000 supporters, producing £ 2.5 m in only one month since launch on 12 April,. has the ability to do the job. It’s a matter of APR = Achievable Political Reality.
Saving democracy and leaving the EU is the priority. Not whether I like this or that personality.
All the the presstitute media’s hype of Farage should make people suspicious, for that reason alone. By contrast Robin Tilbrook’s legal challenge to the legality of extension of article 50 has been kept quiet, in the hope that he doesn’t raise enough funds. And the fact that the Establishment is still so intent on destroying UKIP shows that it is the real threat to their power. I confidently predict that Farage will entertain us with brilliant speeches of what people want to hear, continuing the Tories’ time- wasting and con trick, for a year or two, while the presstitute continue to distract and mislead a gullible public. While, meanwhile, the clock is ticking and the EU trap is very rapidly closing on us. That’s their agenda, I’m 1000% certain.
What is surreal about May’s ‘discussions’ and ‘indicative votes’ is that the EU has already said that it will accept no changes at all in the PWA , but just might allow a ‘softer Brexit’ ie the Political Declaration meaning the UK RemaINs in the PWA forever, without the fig leaf of pretence it can be altered as currently proposed!
Who s delusinal here? May or those taking part in ‘indicative votes’.
Early on set of total madness are we looking at here?
Will the real Tory party please stand up.
The Conservatives MK1 Ken Clarke,Dominic Grieve ect and MK2 Sir John Redwood,
Jacob Rees-Mogg , Bill Cash /co,
and now we have the undisguised Con party MK3 The Brexit Party, with the Conservative
Millionaires club backing / Tory support.
“all that matters is Brexit” well Is it ? George Soros is “buying democracy” too.
Stupid comment. Many Tory donors backed UKIP with 100’s thousands in 2013>2017, mainly because of Farage
A disappointingly arrogant reply John. And It fails to answer io’s questions and central point. Personally, I would have thought that those tempted to vote forThe Brexit Party would have learned a salutary lesson from those who voted Tory in 2017.
You are not suggesting, are you, that if NF gets into Parliament leading a wedge of 100 or even more Brexit Party MPs that suddenly they will all roll over and say ‘ after all this W A isn’t so bad ‘ ?
What would motivate them to do that ?
TBP’s campaign is unambiguously stating that a vote for TBP is a vote for World Trade Organization terms exit ( with the possibility of negotiating a mutually beneficial trade Treaty with the EU later – but the negotiations being from a position of sovereign equality, not Mrs May’s perpetual self abasement , abject surrender stance.
I’m sorry Howard but trying to posit that the Brexit Party is a Tory clone of some sort is stupid.
John.
Perception , big donors look like the “power” in the TBP
small £25 donors make TBP “look” democratic .
Nigel’s campaign of lies “UKIP are the new BNP” and calling
30,000 members “vile ” (most who have supported him) makes
Mr Farage look exactly what he is.
The Brexit Party’s message is simple and has nothing to do with what amount of money donor x, y or z has given to it. I wish it was UKIP that was the vanguard of the Brexit message but it’s not and wishing it was so won’t deliver Brexit.
“Bamber” indeed!
I would suggest when picking their next LEAVE minded PM, they also keep in mind the margin of votes their candidate will command in his/her constituency..
I understand on that basis Amber has nil chance of returning (never mind reselection by her local party).
As a fall guy for that blo*dy awkward woman” all she`s turned out to be anyway is a blo*dy nuisance.
If it is to be another woman PM I`d rather have Priti Patel any day.
I backed her after cameron , but she backed down
Sargon Milkshakes and violent response threats: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/10/carl-benjamin-milkshake-ukip-mep-cornwall
“Posting on social media after Friday’s incident, Mark Meechan, said: “Anyone that comes at me with a milkshake will need the straw to eat their meals for the next few months.”
?
It didn’t affect John Prescotts career when he thumped a protestor! Nor was there outrage at his extremist response. Or maybe its acceptable for Lefties to thump people as when they punch people it is justified.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/1330499/Prescott-punches-a-protester.html
Prescott was passed on as “that`s just John”
and I don`t remember another word being said anywhere.
I’m a non violent kind of person,
but well remember my mother saying to me ” any one hits you, then, you hit em back “.
Hi Roger all the best .uu.
Today I voted (postal vote as I’ll be in China on election day!) for the Brexit Party. I did feel some guilt when passing over the UKIP box however my logic is simple. We Leavers have to back the horse that is most likely to win the Brexit race and that is unequivocally the Brexit Party.
When I canvassed in my three by-elections and one General Election I often encountered those on the doorstep, that said: ‘we’ve always vote Labour, we’re a Labour household’. My riposte was that although I was the UKIP candidate my vote belonged to me, not UKIP or any other party for that matter. I was trying to shock them out of their tribal mindsight whereby they keep voting for the same party even when that party is dumping on them.
In my lifetime I’ve voted Labour, Tory, UKIP and now the Brexit Party. I’ll continue to use my vote in a way that I believe best serves what I want to see achieved for my country, my family and local community. At the moment all that matters is Brexit. Most of the other policies that UKIP or the Brexit Party will offer at a general election will be severely compromised e.g. immigration if we’re still in the EU or the charlatans on the HoC agree May’s surrender deal. Farage and the Brexit Party have timed their launch to perfection and voters who would never vote for UKIP, or used to are flocking to it in their thousands. That’s the reality. Politics is brutal and we voters need to be also.
John, yes, it is logical to vote for the party with the best chance of winning.
Prior to the deadline for the withdrawal of candidates, I produced a spreadsheet calculation, showing how many seats were likely to be won by the Brexit Party and by UKIP, given the then polling percentages. If UKIP had stood down, assuming all the UKIP votes then transferred to the Brexit Party, then the overall number of seats for Brexit would be increased by seven. Splitting the vote really does not help the Brexit cause.
I sent my spreadsheet to several prominent UKIP members, however UKIP did not withdraw from the election. A shame, as with the current poll percentages they are unlikely to get many, if any, seats. UKIP will be seen as a spent force, whereas a tactical withdrawal would have given it the respect, and opportunity to fight another day. On important matters which Farage will not touch.
I do remember the Wythenshawe by election campaign. A group of us travelled up from the South West, and did canvassing in the Mancunian rain. The Lib Dems losing their deposit put them into a state of despair – leading them to make the serious error of challenging Farage to the “in” vs “out” debate.
https://www.libdemvoice.org/wythenshaw-and-sale-east-byelection-labour-win-easily-ukip-beat-tories-to-2nd-lib-dems-lose-deposit-38222.html
It seems likely that UKIP will do very badly in the EU parliamentary election. In the mindset of despair, it is likely then to make some serious errors. I make no predictions regarding the nature of the errors. Labour also made a serious error (allowing Corbyn to stand as a leadership candidate) when demoralised by their defeat in 2015.
Hugo Fair assessment. Shame about the fortunes of UKIP but we must do what is best for Brexit and all other political issues must take a back seat for now..
Please give me a link to a poll which gives the relative percentages of UKIP/Brexit Party support by Region, please so that I can check these predictions. I have just received a EU election leaflet from the Brexit Party which would be recognised by those in those regions of the UK which viscerally hate the Tory party, as a bunch of Tories with a bit of virtue signallling (very Tory) thrown in.
UKIP members of the EU Parliament will sit with the ENF together with Lega Nord And Rassemblement National, the authentic voice of European nations of European peoples.
Gaming the system is how UKIP was kept out of the HoC (apart from two temporary Tory defections) for the whole of its existence to date. Stupid people will act stupidly, unfortunately.
Forthurst, here is a recent poll by region:
https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Final-Centrum-Campaign-Electoral-Calc-Tables.pdf
See page 9. UKIP is on 2% ~ 3% and on these percentages is unlikely to win any seats in any region.
Region Seats available Threshold %
East Midlands 5 20.0
East of England 7 14.3
London 8 12.5
North East 3 33.3
North West 8 12.5
South East 10 10.0
South West 6 16.7
West Midlands 7 14.3
Yorkshire and Humber 6 16.7
Wales 4 25.0
Scotland 6 16.7
Northern Ireland 3 33.3
This may also be interesting:
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/05/10/how-might-green-lib-dem-change-uk-pact-have-done-e
Luckily the remainer parties are too incompetent to form a pact. The deadline for withdrawing candidates has long gone.
Thank you. I think online polls are highly suspect, in principle. Furthermore, the sequence of parties given in the question is highly unusual leading to an inference of attempting to lead the response so I do not accept that this poll is intentionally or, in practice, very accurate.
Forthurst, polls generally should be taken with caution. For the typical sample sizes there is a leeway of around 3 percentage points.
The latest poll has the Brexit party on 34% and UKIP on 4%. Even if you generously added on a 3% leeway, giving 7%, that is still below the 10% threshold in the South East region.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/11/brexit-party-may-get-more-eu-election-votes-than-tories-and-labour-combined-poll
On these polling figures UKIP will win no seats at all. What a waste of £500,000. I did repeatedly tell them not to be so daft, but they would not listen to me. And I received several abusive swearing emails for my pains.
If it is any consolation. the Conservatives are only on 11%. They will be lucky if they win more than one seat.
This is the real politic response that many UKIP Brexiteers will agonise over taking with a heavy heart.
” I’ll continue to use my vote in a way that I believe best serves what I want to see achieved for my country my family and community.” It is not simply that the TBP has the best chance of winning, but that it has the best chance because it has the right mission – to change politics for good – , it has mass support for that mission, has high quality candidates and the funding to achieve that mission and hopefully, after 26 May results are declared, will be able to show ability to achieve its mission. John Bickley and others have managed to extract their head from the sand. No doubt more will draw the same, rather painful, conclusion.
Dear Tony, my head was never in the sand. I stepped away from helping run UKIP a year last January. It was right that Gerard ran the show with the team he wanted. The frustration is the Gerard is well clued up on the EU & should have focussed 100% on Brexit not have allowed himself & the party to be dragged into an anti Islam stance & be seen to be in cahoots with Robinson & a bunch of self serving social media self publicists.
Farage has to take a lot of the blame for leaving UKIP in the lurch before Brexit was delivered & having left then backing the leadership dross that followed. However, he’s a winner & with the Brexit Party stands the best chance of delivering Brexit.
John,
Yes, John, this is your prerogative, but you are not naive, and I don’t believe
that this is,self-deception, I think by what you have said, at the end of your post,
you know, that this is a lot more then about Brexit,
did you vote Labour or Tory while being a member of UKIP?
” The Brexit Party have timed their launch to perfection” yep.
Farage, wants to see the demise of UKIP and it seems that this could happen
with the help of some UKIP members, if so this would be more then brutal,.
I and my family will vote and support UKIP.
Same here I don’t trust Farage at all after he left us with Bolton. Gerard deserves our support for rescuing UKIP from bankruptcy and nearly doubling the membership from when Bolton was kicked out by the membership. Vote UKIP
Agreed.
Alec I sense that many people will share your distrust of Farage (including myself) but whether we like it not the Brexit Party is seen has having a far better chance of advancing Brexit than UKIP on this occasion and that is the mood of millions of non-UKIP members determined to win Brexit and numbers matter.
Well Farage hasn’t done much to advance Brexit over the last 3 crucial years, while the clock ticks away and EU integration continues apace in the background; so whyshould he start now? How would a clutch of Widdecombes and female versions of Mogg (ha!) advance Brexit? OK Farage’s party has a high chance for the Euroelections as the MSM are seeing to that (this in itself suspicious). By contrast, strong UKIP wins in the Euro’s would strengthen the “populist” Hungarian-Italian-French-Dutch axis in the EU parliament, which is what I think the EU really do fear; UKIP would be part of this grouping whereas Farage refuses to join it. I really do think TBP was created to avert this.
AY,
I am in total agreement, farage is treachery on steroids.
E.U constitutional crisis says The Times, how is it possible to have a constitutional crisis in an organisation that doesn’t have one? Similar to their comment about Barnier being on the ‘campaign trail,’ when did we get to vote for a ‘president’ then?